Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

BTW - amazing agreement between the ECMWF and the GFS for the next week. Actually its a little strange to see such agreement.

[snow_wizzard]

I am already getting excited about next weekend. This ECMWF 850mb temp / surface pressure map at day 7 shows our next opportunity for some real winter. As TT stated the GFS show something very similar. Did I just agree with TT????

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

I like the fact that we are going to have some chilly weather over the next few days also. A below normal feb?

[TT-SEA]

I am afraid our agreement stops at the fact that the models agree.

After the bust this weekend... how can you be excited about a pattern next weekend that is much less promising.

[andrewr]

All right, TT thinks next week will be warm (at least the end of the week, I'm not sure about the middle) and snow_wizzard thinks it will be cooler. This looks like another showdown.

[snow_wizzard]

R-Dub...It will be select areas that will get down to 20 - 25. Those would be some areas in the NW interior, the valleys near and in the foothills, and areas near Olympia. Many places will be more like 27 - 31.

[R-Dub]

R-Dub...It will be select areas that will get down to 20 - 25. Those would be some areas in the NW interior, the valleys near and in the foothills, and areas near Olympia. Many places will be more like 27 - 31.

How low do you think I will go Snowwiz?

WOW finally an exciting Super Bowl!! I don't care who wins, but after the "sharpie" incedent at where else......SEATTLE, I have really disliked T.O.
Go Eagles!!
EDIT.........OOPS I meant to say go New England!

Currently 34.7 degrees and still a mixed bag falling here.

[TT-SEA]

No showdown...

I agree there will be some frost around early this week. Nice days... cool nights.

Thursday and Friday should be warmer with no frost anywhere and really pleasant days.

Next weekend will be marginally wet and cool (particularly Saturday) but still highs in the upper 40's. Good mountain snow though.

[andrewr]

Considering Olympia during the last "cold spell" only got down to around the upper teens, I'm going to have to say warmer than that and if the clouds don't clear in time then much warmer. I'll say the coldest temps will be around 27 tonight.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...You should know by now that I am very stubborn glutton for punishment. I just know that this weather is on the edge of doing something good. Historically speaking, this winter has fulfulled the requirements for us to expect a really good cold spell.

[snow_wizzard]

Just to clarify...the really cold lows won't be until tomorrow night. R-Dub...I would expect you could go down to 25 or so, tomorrow night.

[R-Dub]

Just to clarify...the really cold lows won't be until tomorrow night. R-Dub...I would expect you could go down to 25 or so, tomorrow night.

That would still do the trick to get the grass to slow down!
Hope it happens.

[R-Dub]

Todays NCEP extended outlooks.........

6-10 Day-Below normal temps and precip
8-14 Day-Below normal temps and precip

Wonder what the 00z GFS will have to say?

[TT-SEA]

There is no human input on the NCEP long range forecasts produced on the weekend.

They are truly garbage.

Even the ones with human input are shaky at best. The weekend forecasts are a joke.

[R-Dub]

There is no human input on the NCEP long range forecasts produced on the weekend.

They are truly garbage.

Even the ones with human input are shaky at best. The weekend forecasts are a joke.

I won't argue with that one.

Temp still slowly dropping, down to 33.9 degrees with still a light mixed slush falling from the sky.

[R-Dub]

Blaine and Lynden have warmed up rapidly with a switch from a NE wind to a SE wind.
I am auctually a degree or two cooler then they are!
Temp here is 34.2 degrees.

[R-Dub]

Also Precip has really started to decrease on the last couple of frames of the the radar.
Its dry here for the first time since 7:00AM this morning!! It was non stop mixed precip all day!
Definately a winter day today!!

[R-Dub]

Everyone must be stuffed full of chips, beer, and are passed out in front of the TV Its quiet here tonight!!

I really like this sentence from the latest NWS forecast.........." MON AND TUE NITE SHUD BE RATHER FROSTY AND OUR CURRENT FCST MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES TOO WARM."
That should slow up the grass a little


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 845 PM PST SUN FEB 6 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR ASTORIA THIS EVENING IS DRIFTING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTS WILL GIVE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING FRIDAY. &&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WITH BY MIDNITE SO CUT THE POPS AND REWORDED THE ZONES. WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET RID OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE HOWEVER...AND OUR TEMP FORECASTS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL TONIGHT. MON AND TUE NITE SHUD BE RATHER FROSTY AND OUR CURRENT FCST MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES TOO WARM. BUT CERTAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.

[andycottle]

Hi folks...Tim, Anthony, snow-wizzard, Randy, and the rest. Just wanting to let you all know that I didn`t dissapear off this board. lol. Seriously though. I`m still here and will post more often. Didn`t post over last couple days because of some BAD computer problems. Anyway...I am here!:) -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

Superbowl was AWESOME!!!

In any event, next week looks very interesting...latest 850 mb heights are almost down to -20C. Of course it's still seven days away, but at least the hope of winter isn't lost. Today was interesting...a variety of weather. We never switched to pure, wet snow but the mix bag was awesome to watch!! Well, I'm tired!! Got 0 period tomorrow morning at 6:15am so I better go to bed. Goodnite to all!!

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

Anthony... you have to be AT school by 6:15 a.m.? Thats insane.

I am not sure what model you are looking at but 850 mb temps of -20C would be just as insane. The GFS shows about -6C one week from now... and that will probably be very wrong.

BTW - this is a good lesson here... the GFS originally had 850 mb forecasted temps of -12C or colder for today (earlier this week). I said that the reality would be much warmer. This afternoon the actual 850 mb temperature was approximately -3C.

FOR ALL ON THIS THREAD - DO NOT LOOK AT GFS FORECASTED 850 MB TEMPS BEYOND 2 DAYS FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE MODEL DOES NOT RECOGNIZE THE OLYMPIC OR CASCADE MOUNTAINS