Texas Winter 2019-2020

[weatherdude1108]

We have had several days of drizzle/mist light rain around here, with periods of moderate rain from time to time. We just had a downpour at work earlier, with more on the way.

I know it is not freezing weather with snow and ice, but we desperately need this rain here for the soils, and our lower lake levels, which have noticeably declined since late Summer.

Sure it would be more fun to get some frozen wetness, but I will take any kind of beneficial wetness I can get at this point!!

As a bonus, it washes the air out of the horrendous cedar count we have had!


000
FXUS64 KEWX 170925
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
325 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
At 2 AM, the cold front wiggled along a Carrizo Springs to Uvalde to
Pleasanton to La Grange to Brenham line. An upper level trough was
over the Great Basin. As the upper level trough moves east over the
Rockies today, eastern parts of the front drift northwest across the
I-35 corridor into the eastern Hill Country while western parts
drift toward the I-35 corridor. An unseasonably moist airmass
remains over our area with PWs of 1 to 1.5 inches. These PWs are
near record levels for mid January. Upward forcing of this moist
airmass generate scattered to numerous showers today that gradually
focus along the frontal zone tonight. Stronger convergence across
the frontal zone will create spots of locally heavy rains and WPC
has highlighted this area with a marginal risk of excessive rains.
Weak elevated instability may cause a few thunderstorms. Above
normal temperatures are expected east of the front and below normal
temperatures west of it.

The upper level trough moves east across the Plains on Saturday
causing another, though, stronger cold front to move across our area
during the morning to overtake the current front. The passage of the
front brings another round of showers. Weaker elevated instability
is expected and will not mention thunderstorms. However, cannot rule
one or two. Similar to today, above normal temperatures are expected
ahead of the front and below normal temperatures behind it. Breezy
and gusty northerly winds will develop in the wake of the frontal
passage.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Rain chances shift south of the area Saturday night, while a flat
zonal pattern develops aloft over TX. The cold air advection pattern
softens up Sunday with northerly winds falling to below 10 mph across
most of the area by late afternoon. Sunday night into Monday, the
cold air advection pattern gets a boost, as the upper troughing
pattern, by this time over the Ern US, gets another piece of energy
that carves out a sharper northerly flow aloft pattern over the
Central Plains. Earlier projections had a round of light elevated
showers to coincide with this shortwave over Central TX, but this has
trended weaker and is now considered to low of a PoP for warranting
mention. The potential for freezing low temps continues to be focused
over the northern counties as filtered sun and scattered mid/high
clouds over the CAA period will help to dampen diurnal temperature
differences.

On Tuesday, the flat pattern over TX has a low amplitude shortwave
trough that increases mid level cloudiness and isentropic lift with
scattered showers expected late Tuesday through Wednesday. Another
upstream and stronger shortwave moves in quickly on the heels of the
Tuesday system and creates a positive tilt troughing pattern over the
area for late Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence is fairly low on
the timing of these two systems fusing together as they reach TX, but
models show a good consensus on an above average chance of rain and
good potential for a widespread event. Additional shortwave troughing
features on the heels of the Tue-Thu wet pattern would suggest that
some shifts in timing could push the best widespread rain day forward
or backwards, so will have little faith in pushing PoPs in any one
period past 60 percent.

With the persistent unsettled pattern lasting into late next week, no
freezing temps are foreseen for the southern and eastern two-thirds
of the area through late next week.

[Cpv17]

Well this looks good at least:

[weatherdude1108]

This is better news for Texas, released by the CPC yesterday.



Latest Seasonal Assessment - After drought (D1-D4) in the contiguous U.S. rose to 21.2% in late October (from a minimum of 2.3% on April 23) when late summer and early autumn flash drought conditions overspread the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, wet weather across the eastern half of the Nation during the past 90-days have nearly eliminated drought east of the Mississippi River. As of Jan. 7, drought declined to just 11.2% of the lower 48 States, confined to the southern Plains, Four Corners region, and Pacific Northwest. With the expected continuation of storms traversing most of the contiguous U.S. (except in California and the Southwest), improvement of drought is likely in the southern Plains and extreme northern sections of the Pacific Northwest. Likewise in Hawaii, with recent heavy rains and favorable odds for above-normal February and FMA rainfall during the wet season, drought should improve. In contrast, persistent high pressure over the North Pacific Ocean is expected to continue, diverting storm systems to the north and south and away from California and parts of the Southwest. As a result, development of drought by the end of April is possible in southern Oregon and northern California. In the Four Corners Region, with no clear tilt of precipitation (EC) out through April, persistence was the best bet. Similarly in Alaska, the small D1 area in the southeastern Panhandle is long-term drought, and with no clear precipitation signal and a declining rainfall climatology, persistence was the forecast there. In Puerto Rico, unfortunately hit by a strong earthquake, recent rains have eliminated the last small D1 area in the southeast.





Forecaster: David Miskus

[bubba hotep]

DFW is up to 3.8" for January and the ensemble mean is close to 3" more by the end of the month. DFW has only gone over 6" in January twice with over 9" in '32 and 6.18" in '12, so a Top 5 Wet January looks to be on tap with a chance to go for 2nd place.

[gpsnowman]

DFW is up to 3.8" for January and the ensemble mean is close to 3" more by the end of the month. DFW has only gone over 6" in January twice with over 9" in '32 and 6.18" in '12, so a Top 5 Wet January looks to be on tap with a chance to go for 2nd place.

The rain is great but what a shame no cold air is here while the precip moves in. What could have been. Oh well, we still have February.

[orangeblood]

DFW is up to 3.8" for January and the ensemble mean is close to 3" more by the end of the month. DFW has only gone over 6" in January twice with over 9" in '32 and 6.18" in '12, so a Top 5 Wet January looks to be on tap with a chance to go for 2nd place.

The rain is great but what a shame no cold air is here while the precip moves in. What could have been. Oh well, we still have February.

There are fairly large cold anomalies forecast for to build in the Polar Regions over the next two weeks....the big question is when/if we get the right delivery mechanism to force that cold south ???

Not liking this EPO forecast though...until that moves negative, probably not much action around here!!

[harp]

The 12Z GFS has a motherload of cold coming down, then, poof, it just slides off to the east!!

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS has a motherload of cold coming down, then, poof, it just slides off to the east!!

What, on Earth, could be diverting this Arctic air eastward!

[orangeblood]

The 12Z GFS has a motherload of cold coming down, then, poof, it just slides off to the east!!

What, on Earth, could be diverting this Arctic air eastward!

well played!!

[Ntxw]

DFW is up to 3.8" for January and the ensemble mean is close to 3" more by the end of the month. DFW has only gone over 6" in January twice with over 9" in '32 and 6.18" in '12, so a Top 5 Wet January looks to be on tap with a chance to go for 2nd place.

The numbers don't lie. When you get copious rainfall, in particular winter, it is often tagged with warm winters. Remember warm air holds more moisture than cold air does. This has been a recurring theme, either very warm or very wet. One or the other has been prevalent, sometimes both.

[Haris]

It may be wet up there but we’ve seen mainly less than an inch down here across s and c Texas

[South Texas Storms]

It may be wet up there but we’ve seen mainly less than an inch down here across s and c Texas

I think our turn will come soon. Models look quite wet across south and central TX over the next few weeks.

[BrokenGlass]

Since I can’t fight the heat monger’s wall, I’ll just leave this:



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Yukon Cornelius]

Two solid days of constant rain. It can stop now.

[weatherdude1108]

The CPC 6-10 day precip outlook has the highest probability bullseye from central Oklahoma, south through DFW, south through San Antonio.

[bubba hotep]

Bit of an uptick on the 18z ensembles for some winter weather in N. Texas next Thursday +/-

[Texas Snow]

Bit of an uptick on the 18z ensembles for some winter weather in N. Texas next Thursday +/-

Ummm what? I told my weather loving but non-weather-geeking friends that winter was cancelled for January.

[CaptinCrunch]

First half of the month was much above average, top 5 warmest 1st halves of January. With the next 7-10 days running right around normal that will bring the monthly mean down, but January will close out warmer than average.

I still feel February has the potential to bring a few chances of winter weather to NTX, if not at least temperatures closer too, or just below average.

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS has DFW at 70F on January 11th... Sad thing is that is the only time the long range GFS is right in recent winters!!!

and the 06z GFS drops DFW 20 degrees for the high on 1/11.... We all know the long range panels are trash, but look at the NPAC upper air progression from 300-384. Large ridge starts to pump into the Bering and is shifting East.

The upcoming pattern isn't great or horrible for Texas, it's trash for the EC. Looks like +AO/EPO & -PNA. That keeps us probably near normal temp wise with above normal precipitation for January. The MJO remains incoherent, the SPV appears to be stable and slightly stronger than normal, so things appear kind of stagnant. The IOD continues to lose influence, so maybe we can get a true MJO cycle to shake things up in the coming weeks.

The MJO has finally emerged as player on a global scale but it may be too little late as the SPV continues to be strong and stable, keeping cold air locked away for the most part. The IOD has somewhat stabilized and it's influence has waned but there is always a bit of an "atmospheric hangover" during transitions of the background state.

If the Euro EPS MJO forecast is correct, then...



we likely cycle back through the warm phases again but that should keep Texas wet

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS says that DFW makes a run at wettest January ever!