Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Hi folks. Looking at tonights latest 00z GFS...it looks like we have some nice sunny to partly cloudy days coming up as tomorrow through at least friday features no precip what so ever. Well there is one exception, and thats late friday into over night hours of very early dark hours of Saturday morning that we could see some spotty light showers. 500MB voricitys heights during this time are from 552 to 558DM with 850MB temps in the range of 0 to -3C. In terms of the Jet...looks like we have some what of a northely to bit of a split flow through this week. So for rest of this week am going to call for high temps in the mid-upper 40`s to near 50 and lows in the mid 30`s to near 40. -- Andy
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Well even RICH MARRIOT talks about the possiblity of snow by Sunday.
Also I have been quitetly watching the trend of the PNA forecast, and just has I thought, after a brief period of slightly above neutral, it dips again!! Winter has not left us yet! Sounds like there may even be shower activity on Wednesday, that was previously thought to be dry.
Here's the PNA link............
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html
2/7/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:22:19 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 33.8
Humidity (%) 95.8
Wind (mph) NW 1.1
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.12
Dew Point: 33.0 ºF
Also I have been quitetly watching the trend of the PNA forecast, and just has I thought, after a brief period of slightly above neutral, it dips again!! Winter has not left us yet! Sounds like there may even be shower activity on Wednesday, that was previously thought to be dry.
Here's the PNA link............
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html
2/7/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:22:19 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 33.8
Humidity (%) 95.8
Wind (mph) NW 1.1
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.12
Dew Point: 33.0 ºF
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
OOOhhh!!! The 12z run is looking very good indeed! Arctic high pressure drops in early next for what could be the coldest temps of the winter, so far. Of particular interest is the fact that two southern branch lows come up from the south next week and meet cold outflow. At this time, the moisture is shown to stay south of our region, but that could change. At any rate the GFS and ECMWF both show well below normal temps by Sunday. This could be the turning point for us...Time will tell.
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TT-SEA
W13 - The MM5 only goes out to 72 hours... that does not help when looking out one week or more.
Snow-Wizzard... you are a glutton for punishment. I see the GFS continuing to weaken the system for Saturday and it is likely WAY too cold for early next week.
Time will tell... but I do not see anything exciting yet.
Snow-Wizzard... you are a glutton for punishment. I see the GFS continuing to weaken the system for Saturday and it is likely WAY too cold for early next week.
Time will tell... but I do not see anything exciting yet.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
This is the first time the models have shown a northern branch - southern branch confluence for the Pacific NW this winter! Notice on this map how the southern branch of the jetstream goes into northern Oregon and the cold northern branch dominates WA.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/12z ... 0_156m.htm
How far north the moisture can get from the southern brach will be crucial in determing in whether or not we get significant snowfall. Keep in mind...this is assuming the GFS is right about this. A pattern of this type is what brings many of our really big snowstorms. The beauty of this one is that the southern stream stays south of us, which means it stays cold, instead of warming up right away.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/12z ... 0_156m.htm
How far north the moisture can get from the southern brach will be crucial in determing in whether or not we get significant snowfall. Keep in mind...this is assuming the GFS is right about this. A pattern of this type is what brings many of our really big snowstorms. The beauty of this one is that the southern stream stays south of us, which means it stays cold, instead of warming up right away.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Just another interesting note. Once again today, 1951 and 1955 are coming up as analog years. That has been happening nearly every day for over a week now. That means there is some similarity in our current pattern to those years. Those years went on to have the two coldest March's of the 20th century. Today, the 0z GFS, DAVA, and Canadian ensemble all came up with both of those analogs. 
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TT-SEA
One interesting note from the current year of 2005...
The "cold snap" this weekend has done nothing to stop springtime. The trees in the parking lot here at my office in Renton started blooming sometime between Friday afternoon and this morning. They were also mowing the lawns around here. Just got back from lunch and saw different trees and bushes in bloom that were not blooming last week.
A little cool (although looks to be warmer than I originally predicted again) but a beautiful day outside with sunshine and great visibility.
Still on track for a very nice Thursday and Friday with southerly flow and sunshine!! Again as originally predicted.
The "cold snap" this weekend has done nothing to stop springtime. The trees in the parking lot here at my office in Renton started blooming sometime between Friday afternoon and this morning. They were also mowing the lawns around here. Just got back from lunch and saw different trees and bushes in bloom that were not blooming last week.
A little cool (although looks to be warmer than I originally predicted again) but a beautiful day outside with sunshine and great visibility.
Still on track for a very nice Thursday and Friday with southerly flow and sunshine!! Again as originally predicted.
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TT-SEA
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TT-SEA
Finally... the new ECMWF agrees that we will have very nice weather on Thursday and Friday.
More importantly... since this has been the model of choice this winter... it shows a much weather system on Saturday and then bland northerly flow with 500 mb heights around 558DM and no precipitation next Monday. That would keep any cold air well east of the Cascades.
In fact it shows an arctic outbreak for the Midwest and leaves the West Coast with beautiful weather.
Snow_Wizzard... you need to be very careful about getting your hopes up.
I still say you will have to wait until March.
More importantly... since this has been the model of choice this winter... it shows a much weather system on Saturday and then bland northerly flow with 500 mb heights around 558DM and no precipitation next Monday. That would keep any cold air well east of the Cascades.
In fact it shows an arctic outbreak for the Midwest and leaves the West Coast with beautiful weather.
Snow_Wizzard... you need to be very careful about getting your hopes up.
I still say you will have to wait until March.
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A nice, mid-winter day! Currently 42 F with mostly sunny conditions.
This entire week looks fairly quiet...with maybe the exception of Wednesday night/Thursday morning...but that looks slim. A majority of that system will split off the coast and head into northern California/southern Oregon. Starting Sunday, things look interesting but we all need to watch something. Most models indicate a modified arctic blast beginning Sunday morning thru a majority of next week. But, even from runs last night, the arctic air has shifted ever-so-slightly east. The most likely solution from this will probably be to keep that arctic air either east of the cascades...or east of the Rocky Mountains. In any event, it's still something to watch but I have a feeling that with each run, that arctic air will shift further and further east. Remember, the GFS likes to overexaggerate cold air in Western Washington. 9/10 times it misses us...but there's still that 1 time that we get hammered.
Anthony
This entire week looks fairly quiet...with maybe the exception of Wednesday night/Thursday morning...but that looks slim. A majority of that system will split off the coast and head into northern California/southern Oregon. Starting Sunday, things look interesting but we all need to watch something. Most models indicate a modified arctic blast beginning Sunday morning thru a majority of next week. But, even from runs last night, the arctic air has shifted ever-so-slightly east. The most likely solution from this will probably be to keep that arctic air either east of the cascades...or east of the Rocky Mountains. In any event, it's still something to watch but I have a feeling that with each run, that arctic air will shift further and further east. Remember, the GFS likes to overexaggerate cold air in Western Washington. 9/10 times it misses us...but there's still that 1 time that we get hammered.
Anthony
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TT-SEA
Perfectly stated Anthony.
And right on cue... the 18Z run of the GFS has followed its trend AND the ECMWF by weakening the weekend system and sliding the cold air farther east. The Midwest will see an arctic blast next week and that usually means normal to warm weather for Seattle. If the Midwest gets an arctic blast that will almost guarantee no chance of lowland snow or cold in Seattle.
In fact the 500 mb heights for Monday are now shown at 564DM and you can add about 8C degrees to the forecasted 850 mb temps of -8C... leaving us with 850 mb temps around 0C.
That means cool northerly flow... highs in the upper 40's and brillant sunshine.
In fact the rest of the next week looks very much like the end of January with cold in the East and above normal in the West.
Snow_Wizzard... just give up until March. It will get wild by then.
And right on cue... the 18Z run of the GFS has followed its trend AND the ECMWF by weakening the weekend system and sliding the cold air farther east. The Midwest will see an arctic blast next week and that usually means normal to warm weather for Seattle. If the Midwest gets an arctic blast that will almost guarantee no chance of lowland snow or cold in Seattle.
In fact the 500 mb heights for Monday are now shown at 564DM and you can add about 8C degrees to the forecasted 850 mb temps of -8C... leaving us with 850 mb temps around 0C.
That means cool northerly flow... highs in the upper 40's and brillant sunshine.
In fact the rest of the next week looks very much like the end of January with cold in the East and above normal in the West.
Snow_Wizzard... just give up until March. It will get wild by then.
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TT-SEA
From the NCEP discussion for next week...
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THAT FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN CAUSING HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY TO FALL TO BELOW NORMAL. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW MORE OF THE COLD AIR BUILDING OVER CANADA TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. A FAST ZONAL SOUTHERN JETSTREAM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER THAT REGION.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THAT FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN CAUSING HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY TO FALL TO BELOW NORMAL. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW MORE OF THE COLD AIR BUILDING OVER CANADA TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. A FAST ZONAL SOUTHERN JETSTREAM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER THAT REGION.
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Brian_from_bellingham
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
TT, what do you think will happen in March? I agree with you and Anthony, though I was surprised by the snow we had yesterday. One of my coworkers in Ferndale north of Bellingham had 8 inches of snow, though he lives on a hill. Not the cascade foothills kind of hill, just a regular hill. Driving around yesterday, a hill of 100 feet made all the difference between sticking snow and snow mixed with rain.
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Awesome to hear from you Brian_from_Bellingham!!
The 18Z GFS tends to shear that system for the weekend...alot weaker than what the 12Z model indicated. A little suspicious if you ask me. I need to see some run-to-run consistency. As for next week, alot of that colder air shifts south and east...but I'm still interested because there's a 1040 mb surface high that shifts south into Montana. When you have a surface high higher than 1040 mb, that usually bears well for arctic air in Western Washington...usually gives a solid Frazer outflow. In any event, it's still too early. Models will continue to flip-flop for many days to come.
Anthony
The 18Z GFS tends to shear that system for the weekend...alot weaker than what the 12Z model indicated. A little suspicious if you ask me. I need to see some run-to-run consistency. As for next week, alot of that colder air shifts south and east...but I'm still interested because there's a 1040 mb surface high that shifts south into Montana. When you have a surface high higher than 1040 mb, that usually bears well for arctic air in Western Washington...usually gives a solid Frazer outflow. In any event, it's still too early. Models will continue to flip-flop for many days to come.
Anthony
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I have a feeling we will get quite cold tonight, just has that feel to it. Also I see the State road dept dumped a TON of deicer on the roads today for antisipation for tonights frost.
BRING ON THE FROST!!!!!!!!!
BTW I am still comparing this winter to winter of '92-'93(for recent history), and I do indeed think we will see arctic (or modified arctic) cold next week. I won't gurantee it though
Feb of 1993 has been extremely similar so far to this yr.
Also don't forget about the PNA forecast!!! Pretty much everytime the PNA has gone negitive this winter, we have had a good threat of winter weather.
2/7/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:24:31 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 40.7
Humidity (%) 68.9
Wind (mph) NE 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.20
Dew Point: 32.1 ºF
BRING ON THE FROST!!!!!!!!!
BTW I am still comparing this winter to winter of '92-'93(for recent history), and I do indeed think we will see arctic (or modified arctic) cold next week. I won't gurantee it though
Feb of 1993 has been extremely similar so far to this yr.
Also don't forget about the PNA forecast!!! Pretty much everytime the PNA has gone negitive this winter, we have had a good threat of winter weather.
2/7/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:24:31 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 40.7
Humidity (%) 68.9
Wind (mph) NE 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.20
Dew Point: 32.1 ºF
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TT-SEA
Cold night coming... but not too bad as dewpoints are in the 30's.
No arctic air next week. That will be the Midwest and the East Coast's problem. Not ours.
Remember... add at least 8C degrees to the the GFS 850mb forecasted temps. And more in this case as the upper air pattern is still shifting east as well.
No arctic air next week. That will be the Midwest and the East Coast's problem. Not ours.
Remember... add at least 8C degrees to the the GFS 850mb forecasted temps. And more in this case as the upper air pattern is still shifting east as well.
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TT do you think the PNA forecast is bogus? It shows us going very negitive once again by the first part of next week........................
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html
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TT-SEA
From Portland this afternoon... right on target.
.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING THE SPLIT FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DRY STABLE WEATHER WITH SOME FOG IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE SPLIT IN THE JETSTREAM SHIFTS TEMPORARILY FURTHER EAST...BRINGING A WESTERLY JET NEARER TO THE REGION AND BRINGING A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM AND A SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SAYING OF SPLIT FLOW GO SLOW IS A GOOD ONE AS MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST IN BRINGING OFFSHORE SYSTEMS INLAND IN THAT PATTERN...AND HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WITH CHANCES LINGERING INTO SUN AND SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS ON THE CASCADES MONDAY. DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM IT COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER AS THE SEASON HAS SHOWN SO FAR...THE SPLIT IN THE JET HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT IN PUSHING SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE WILL TRANSITION RIGHT BACK TO A STRONG SPLIT FLOW AFTER THAT WEATHER SYSTEM IN A REX BLOCKY PATTERN THAT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH NIGHT AND MORNING FOG.
.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING THE SPLIT FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DRY STABLE WEATHER WITH SOME FOG IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE SPLIT IN THE JETSTREAM SHIFTS TEMPORARILY FURTHER EAST...BRINGING A WESTERLY JET NEARER TO THE REGION AND BRINGING A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM AND A SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SAYING OF SPLIT FLOW GO SLOW IS A GOOD ONE AS MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST IN BRINGING OFFSHORE SYSTEMS INLAND IN THAT PATTERN...AND HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WITH CHANCES LINGERING INTO SUN AND SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS ON THE CASCADES MONDAY. DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM IT COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER AS THE SEASON HAS SHOWN SO FAR...THE SPLIT IN THE JET HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT IN PUSHING SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE WILL TRANSITION RIGHT BACK TO A STRONG SPLIT FLOW AFTER THAT WEATHER SYSTEM IN A REX BLOCKY PATTERN THAT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH NIGHT AND MORNING FOG.
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