Texas Winter 2017-2018

[spencer817]

lol temps above normal in Kansas at 210

I hope this is a bad run.

yea sure is disappointing

[spencer817]

lol temps above normal in Kansas at 210

I hope this is a bad run.

yea sure is disappointing

-35 in canada this run, 10 degrees colder than last run, maybe its still having trouble, this is still beyond 7 days

[Brent]

some cold is dropping south Christmas Eve at least

[Cpv17]

I wonder if this is the "lose the cold" GFS phase

I personally believe it is. The GFS does this all the time at this range.

[starsfan65]

some cold is dropping south Christmas Eve at least

We are still beyond 7 days. It will come back.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I hope this is a bad run.

yea sure is disappointing

-35 in canada this run, 10 degrees colder than last run, maybe its still having trouble, this is still beyond 7 days

If you remember back to when Christmas first came into the model runs, the real cold didn’t come until late Christmas Eve then Christmas Day.

1052 High coming down the Rockies

[BTAYLOR5021]

Also Febuary 1989 was extremely cold. ..about 4-5 days below freezing similar to Feb 1985 Feb 1996 Feb 2011

[Brent]

yep arctic front passes DFW Christmas Eve afternoon

[starsfan65]

yep arctic front passes DFW Christmas Eve afternoon

Maybe the cold air will be delayed by a day.

[Ntxw]

This run of the GFS is more of a +PNAish run similar to a few runs back vs poleward Alaskan. Doesn't jive with ENS. Weak SE ridge this run

[ThunderSleetDreams]

yep arctic front passes DFW Christmas Eve afternoon

And there it is.. the progressive positive tilt scenario that drives colder air into Texas. Everyone below freezing minus the precip

[South Texas Storms]

Sure does look like an off run from the GFS. Such a big shift from prior runs and also doesn't have much support from its ensembles and other models.

Canadian looks a lot more like the Euro now in showing a possible winter storm in about 10 days.

[Brent]

now the cold is east based LOL heck DFW hits 50 the day after Christmas

this run is totally opposite of the last many

at the end of the run what cold?

[Cpv17]

This run of the GFS is more of a +PNAish run similar to a few runs back vs poleward Alaskan. Doesn't jive with ENS. Weak SE ridge this run

Yeah, the SE ridge isn’t really there this run.

[Ralph's Weather]

We are still solidly in the range where the op runs will have much variance. You will drive yourself crazy if you flip flop your expectations with each op run for days on end. Teleconnections and ensembles support more of a neutral to negative PNA.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Winter cancel

[TexasBreeze]

Can't play around with this model past 120 hrs or so. Fantasy land it is what it is...

[starsfan65]

Winter cancel

Winter is not Canceled!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Ensembles of all three globals are solidly -PNA.

[Ntxw]

We are still solidly in the range where the op runs will have much variance. You will drive yourself crazy if you flip flop your expectations with each op run for days on end. Teleconnections and ensembles support more of a neutral to negative PNA.

Its not terribly off course. Its just the run wants to move things quickly instead of pouring the cold into the deep western trough. Progressive.