Texas Winter 2014-2015

[gpsnowman]

It is strange. Local tv and radio forecasts are sticking to their guns with the temps. The front is a day away and forecasted temps are not any colder than they are this morning.

[wxman57]

Bush Airport stayed between 39-40 all day yesterday with continuous light rain/drizzle. GFS is forecasting WARMER conditions on Thursday behind the Arctic front (low 40s and rain). Hard to believe. Looking beyond this week, the GFS has 2 other 1050+mb highs dropping south toward Texas, one makes it to Texas at nearly 1050mb. I'm afraid I won't like the next 2-3 weeks weather-wise.

On a side note, I get to choose something from the website "mymilestoneawards.com" for being with the company 30+ years. One of the items listed is Oregon Scientific's Ultra Professional Weather Station (below). It lists for around $600. Anyone have any thoughts on it? Looks decent. And the cost (free to me) is good. And since I am clearly the ultra-professional meteorologist, it seems to fit.

http://www.oregonscientificstore.com/Oregon-Scientific-WMR300A-Ultra-Precision-Professional-Weather-System.data?s=froogle&gclid=Cj0KEQiAlISlBRDHpIekkMGiiskBEiQAh-0KQFlxg5NNHy9Mqoz9I_aCYFrSeeeiF4IHkkwLLD47N-QaAkyL8P8HAQ

[wxman57]

:uarrow: It is strange. Local tv and radio forecasts are sticking to their guns with the temps. The front is a day away and forecasted temps are not any colder than they are this morning.

Yes, strange. 06Z GFS has DFW only reaching 32F as the coldest with this front. I was thinking maybe low 20s or upper teens.

[perk]

Bush Airport stayed between 39-40 all day yesterday with continuous light rain/drizzle. GFS is forecasting WARMER conditions on Thursday behind the Arctic front (low 40s and rain). Hard to believe. Looking beyond this week, the GFS has 2 other 1050+mb highs dropping south toward Texas, one makes it to Texas at nearly 1050mb. I'm afraid I won't like the next 2-3 weeks weather-wise.

On a side note, I get to choose something from the website "mymilestoneawards.com" for being with the company 30+ years. One of the items listed is Oregon Scientific's Ultra Professional Weather Station (below). It lists for around $600. Anyone have any thoughts on it? Looks decent. And the cost (free to me) is good. And since I am clearly the ultra-professional meteorologist, it seems to fit.

http://www.oregonscientificstore.com/Oregon-Scientific-WMR300A-Ultra-Precision-Professional-Weather-System.data?s=froogle&gclid=Cj0KEQiAlISlBRDHpIekkMGiiskBEiQAh-0KQFlxg5NNHy9Mqoz9I_aCYFrSeeeiF4IHkkwLLD47N-QaAkyL8P8HAQ

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ultra.gif

Looks like a good setup,i'd like to have it.

[Portastorm]

Things are moving along as I suspected ... EWX is ramping down its temperature forecasts for Wed-Thurs and increasing chatter about the potential for wintry precipitation along the I-35 corridor. I believe this trend will continue for the next few forecast cycles. I also concur with wxman57 that guidance remains too warm, especially with a 1050 mb high coming down.

[vbhoutex]

Looks great to me. The only reason I haven't bought a full on station is that I have too many trees around to have a decent place to mount a station with an anemometer since the wind readings would always be compromised by the trees. I have a CoCoRahs rain gauge so I don't feel like I need a full station except it would be nice to have a digital gauge. OS has always been a quality company from what I've experienced and heard. I figured you had a couple of weather stations at your house!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I got into biking recently. I went on a 30 mile ride in 37 degree weather. It felt great!

[hriverajr]

Bush Airport stayed between 39-40 all day yesterday with continuous light rain/drizzle. GFS is forecasting WARMER conditions on Thursday behind the Arctic front (low 40s and rain). Hard to believe. Looking beyond this week, the GFS has 2 other 1050+mb highs dropping south toward Texas, one makes it to Texas at nearly 1050mb. I'm afraid I won't like the next 2-3 weeks weather-wise.

On a side note, I get to choose something from the website "mymilestoneawards.com" for being with the company 30+ years. One of the items listed is Oregon Scientific's Ultra Professional Weather Station (below). It lists for around $600. Anyone have any thoughts on it? Looks decent. And the cost (free to me) is good. And since I am clearly the ultra-professional meteorologist, it seems to fit.

http://www.oregonscientificstore.com/Oregon-Scientific-WMR300A-Ultra-Precision-Professional-Weather-System.data?s=froogle&gclid=Cj0KEQiAlISlBRDHpIekkMGiiskBEiQAh-0KQFlxg5NNHy9Mqoz9I_aCYFrSeeeiF4IHkkwLLD47N-QaAkyL8P8HAQ

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ultra.gif

Reviews

http://www.amazon.com/Oregon-Scientific ... merReviews

[Rgv20]

Had a high of 52 yesterday, the forecast last Friday called for a high of 65 than went down to 59 on Saturday! Imagine what this coming Arctic front will do... Right now is 40 with dense fog in the area

[vbhoutex]

Things are moving along as I suspected ... EWX is ramping down its temperature forecasts for Wed-Thurs and increasing chatter about the potential for wintry precipitation along the I-35 corridor. I believe this trend will continue for the next few forecast cycles. I also concur with wxman57 that guidance remains too warm, especially with a 1050 mb high coming down.

I haven't looked at our area discussion yet, but out local OCM are still HUGGING the models. It is SAD and LAUGHABLE that there doesn't appear to be a one that has a pair or the confidence to go out on a limb(which I consider to be a very strong limb).

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: It is strange. Local tv and radio forecasts are sticking to their guns with the temps. The front is a day away and forecasted temps are not any colder than they are this morning.

Yes, strange. 06Z GFS has DFW only reaching 32F as the coldest with this front. I was thinking maybe low 20s or upper teens.

Do you think that the models are seeing warm air advection from the SW flow aloft and underestimating the surface cold? If things go how we think they will this could be a huge bust at a very bad time for it to happen. The difference between 32 NYE night and mid 20s is absolutely huge with moisture, even light, around.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Arctic air mass heading for TX with another wet storm system Wed-Sat.

Big changes on the way this morning with arctic boundary surging through KS into northern OK. Upstream temperatures over NW KS are in the 1’s with the arctic boundary being driven by a massive 1055mb high pressure cell dropping out of NW Canada. Boundary will plow southward today especially across west TX as is common with such air masses and likely push into NE MX before reaching Houston as the cold dense air dams against the Rocky Mountains. Model guidance does not have a good handle on the incoming cold as is usually the case with shallow and very cold arctic fronts. Almost all the guidance is too warm and once again will need to significantly undercut the guidance output to match what in reality will likely occur.

Arctic boundary will move across SE TX on Tuesday and off the coast and temperatures will begin their fall from the 50’s into the 40’s. Cold air advection will continue into Wednesday and expect temperature to not warm much if at all from the 30’s on Wednesday under increasing clouds. WSW flow aloft from the downstream effect of a large upper level trough over the west coast will produce overrunning of warm and moist air on top of the dense and cold arctic surface pool. Short range models have a slightly better handle on the incoming air mass and will follow that guidance for Wednesday with highs mainly in the 30’s for most inland locations and the lower 40’s near the coast.

NYE Night:
Problems begin on Wednesday evening as lead short wave moves out of the SW US and across the arctic cold pool. Models have increased the chances for precipitation on Wednesday evening which is running about 12-18 hours faster than previous guidance was suggesting. Bigger concern is what will surface temperatures be at this time. Highs on Wednesday in the 35-38 range would only need to cool a few degrees to potentially lead to freezing drizzle or freezing rain. This seems at least possible NW of a line from Columbus to Brenham to Huntsville on Wednesday night where dewpoints in the upper 20’s would allow a few degrees of evaporational cooling to lower the surface temperature to near or below freezing. Main question is just how much precipitation actually develops and how well are the models handling the surface cold air as only a few degrees will make a big difference over portions of the area. For now will keep everything liquid SE of the above mentioned line which falls in close with WPC freezing rain probability guidance showing the highest threat along the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Dallas. A lot of uncertainty in this part of the forecast and changes are likely over the next 48 hours.

New Year’s Day:
Increasing overrunning pattern with widespread light to moderate rainfall developing over the region with cold surface arctic high entrenched at the surface. Temperatures will show almost no recovery likely in the mid 30’s most of the day. Some locations north and west could be very near freezing during the morning hours and even into the afternoon hours and will have to continue to watch for freezing rain mainly NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville. Will see temperatures attempt to warm slightly by evening as warm air advection attempt to gain ground, but think the models are too quick in eroding the cold air.

Friday:
Powerful upper level system approaches the region from the west with significant lift and moisture advection into the region. Expect widespread rain and thunderstorms. Surface temperatures should start to warm into the 40’s during the day on Friday effectively ending any threat of freezing precipitation. Thinking is that the warm sector will not push inland keeping any severe threat offshore, but will need to watch for this potential in the coming days. Potential for heavy rainfall will increase and given the wet grounds in place from the 3-8 inches of rainfall over the last 2 weeks rises on area rivers and watersheds will be possible.

Storm system exits on Saturday, but clouds and rainfall will likely linger into Saturday afternoon along with cold temperatures. May finally see the sun again by next Sunday with a warming trend.

[perk]

Things are moving along as I suspected ... EWX is ramping down its temperature forecasts for Wed-Thurs and increasing chatter about the potential for wintry precipitation along the I-35 corridor. I believe this trend will continue for the next few forecast cycles. I also concur with wxman57 that guidance remains too warm, especially with a 1050 mb high coming down.

I haven't looked at our area discussion yet, but out local OCM are still HUGGING the models. It is SAD and LAUGHABLE that there doesn't appear to be a one that has a pair or the confidence to go out on a limb(which I consider to be a very strong limb).

vb i have read the discussion and it is much like the OCM you mentioned.

[Ralph's Weather]

Things are moving along as I suspected ... EWX is ramping down its temperature forecasts for Wed-Thurs and increasing chatter about the potential for wintry precipitation along the I-35 corridor. I believe this trend will continue for the next few forecast cycles. I also concur with wxman57 that guidance remains too warm, especially with a 1050 mb high coming down.

I haven't looked at our area discussion yet, but out local OCM are still HUGGING the models. It is SAD and LAUGHABLE that there doesn't appear to be a one that has a pair or the confidence to go out on a limb(which I consider to be a very strong limb).

The mets should try forecasting using old methods (Watch the cold build in source regions, high pressure building south from the source region and current upper air analysis along with short range upper air modeling) and see if the models make sense. If not then go on experience and not fear of being wrong.

[ndale]

Things are moving along as I suspected ... EWX is ramping down its temperature forecasts for Wed-Thurs and increasing chatter about the potential for wintry precipitation along the I-35 corridor. I believe this trend will continue for the next few forecast cycles. I also concur with wxman57 that guidance remains too warm, especially with a 1050 mb high coming down.

The weather service here shows my point forecast to be 32 degrees and rain for Wed night. Two miles to my west right across IH 35 they show freezing rain.

[srainhoutx]

One of the good things we have in our favor for understanding pattern recognition is a lot of years of combined experience of watching these type of Arctic Outbreaks across our Region. Many forecasters rely far too much on what their workstation data suggests versus using past experiences to add input and analysis explaining why the these computer models can be both good and bad. We older folks learned a long time ago to use all the tools in the tool box...so to speak...which includes your own personal experience and watching carefully what is happening up stream. Of course in weather there is no 100% accuracy in forecasting because by its very nature, weather and things that are not expected can and often do happen when the weather turns foul. And we do not have to file paper work to some 'higher authority' when we bust...

[Ralph's Weather]

One of the good things we have in our favor for understanding pattern recognition is a lot of years of combined experience of watching these type of Arctic Outbreaks across our Region. Many forecasters rely far too much on what their workstation data suggests versus using past experiences to add input and analysis explaining why the these computer models can be both good and bad. We older folks learned a long time ago to use all the tools in the tool box...so to speak...which includes your own personal experience and watching carefully what is happening up stream. Of course in weather there is no 100% accuracy in forecasting because by its very nature, weather and things that are not expected can and often do happen when the weather turns foul. And we do not have to file paper work to some 'higher authority' when we bust...

Any science and especially this one is improved by experience. If the models do not appear to match what your experience tells you then you have to add your own input. It sure is easier to only answer to the people that use your forecasts in their day to day lives and not some bureaucrat though. If we see the temperature busts that we expect then people will be wanting answers from the pro mets and blaming computer models will not ease the public's questioning of pro mets.

[iorange55]

Any science and especially this one is improved by experience. If the models do not appear to match what your experience tells you then you have to add your own input. It sure is easier to only answer to the people that use your forecasts in their day to day lives and not some bureaucrat though. If we see the temperature busts that we expect then people will be wanting answers from the pro mets and blaming computer models will not ease the public's questioning of pro mets.

Yeah, the thing about is that most of the mets you see on TV are under a lot of pressure, and not just from the viewers watching at home. When almost every model they have is forecasting warmer temps, it's probably extremely difficult for them to pull the trigger and go against it. Even if they see the potential for colder temps.

But when you add freezing rain into the mix...things start to change. If I were them, I would at least add in more conversation about this threat. An icy surprise around New Year's Eve is not something you want. Better safe than sorry.

[Ralph's Weather]

Any science and especially this one is improved by experience. If the models do not appear to match what your experience tells you then you have to add your own input. It sure is easier to only answer to the people that use your forecasts in their day to day lives and not some bureaucrat though. If we see the temperature busts that we expect then people will be wanting answers from the pro mets and blaming computer models will not ease the public's questioning of pro mets.

Yeah, the thing about is that most of the mets you see on TV are under a lot of pressure, and not just from the viewers watching at home. When almost every model they have is forecasting warmer temps, it's probably extremely difficult for them to pull the trigger and go against it. Even if they see the potential for colder temps.

But when you add freezing rain into the mix...things start to change. If I were them, I would at least add in more conversation about this threat. An icy surprise around New Year's Eve is not something you want. Better safe than sorry.

Completely agree. This is a situation where warning of the threat and nothing happening is preferable to trusting that the models are exactly right and them having their typical warm bias with Arctic air masses and having a surprise .1" of ice at 2AM NYE night.

[Kelarie]

It has gotten quiet. Are y'all waiting for models or napping for the upcoming event?