Texas Winter 2024-2025

[bubba hotep]

Overall, a big dry shift on the 12z Euro EPS

[Cpv17]

Overall, a big dry shift on the 12z Euro EPS

It’s really too early anyway. It’s like a week plus out. Not worried about it yet.

Late month into early February will probably provide another opportunity.

[HockeyTx82]

Overall, a big dry shift on the 12z Euro EPS

It’s really too early anyway. It’s like a week plus out. Not worried about it yet.

Late month into early February will probably provide another opportunity.

It's always two weeks away or next month.

[txtwister78]

Ensembles have definitely shifted warmer for next wk folks (highs 50's across SC TX). No getting around it. Being that we're now within the 7 day window I think that's not a trend you want to see if you're rooting for winter weather.

Yes while I agree you don't want to be under the full weight of that arctic blast the trends however to warmer via the ensembles in correlation with the positve pna signal, has me thinking this is what operationals will eventually cave to soon. Hope I'm wrong.12z ICON run sort of has already. Yes colder than averages but not cold enough.

[hurricane2025]

lol it might not happen but man yall jump off the bridge when models are 7-8 days out

[txtwister78]

lol it might not happen but man yall jump off the bridge when models are 7-8 days out

Definitely not (speaking for myself). Ensembles are a lot more accurate and reliable at this range than watching operationals. Is what it is at this point. No hedging either way here. I've been posting about the positve pna signal being a impediment to the type of cold needed for winter precip for days.

If I'm wrong I'll be happy to say so but no sense in not acknowledging the obvious when it's right in front of you either.

[Brent]

The ironic part is know people back east who would kill for our snow climo and yet here we are. I'm sitting here like I wouldnr wish this on any of them how we always miss out

We better get ours at some point that's all I can say. I can't keep going to Colorado

[Ralph's Weather]

Run to run things will change sometimes dramatically even on ens. The overall setup is a good one for winter weather in TX and the South overall. I will take my chances every time with cold air in place and a SW trough. No it is not guaranteed but the potential is great. We should have several disturbances out of the NW flow mid next week to take advantage of the SW flow.

[Stratton23]

I personally think the GEPS has the best handle on the cold despite having a cold bias, im expecting probably alot of highs in the 30’s and 40’s next week, noaas 6-10 outlook for precipitation looks very good still, i have no reason to believe we arent going to get very cold next week, the setup for winter weather potential is still very good, i think we all need to take a deep breath lol

[Ntxw]

Latest odds from the CPC.

[gpsnowman]

BAM Weather(not sure how realiable but seems to know his stuff) has a couple recent tweets showing how the pattern reloads more favorable for the west mid month. Who knows if it happens but winter is far from over. Multiple chances over the next month or so I believe. And mostly below normal for a change.

[Harp.1]

I thought one thing was for certain and that was the cold air. Now, no?

[sphelps8681]

Ya'll north and west of me are sad models don't seem to go your way. Your hoping for all the wintery mess and I am hoping it just gets a little cold here in SE Tx near Beaumont. Knowing that my luck will be my area will probably be dumped on with all the mess of snow/ice. UGH. I don't want it. Please take it. Everything seems to shut down here.

[Ralph's Weather]

I anticipate highs in the 30s all of next week and likely sub 35 a few of those days. Plenty cold at the surface. 850mb temps may be marginal across C TX further away from the source of the cold and better for NE TX. Moisture will be better across C TX though.

[Ntxw]

I thought one thing was for certain and that was the cold air. Now, no?

We're in no man's land of models. You will see meltdowns, lottery winners, crying, excitement everything in the the next few days!

[Yukon Cornelius]

lol it might not happen but man yall jump off the bridge when models are 7-8 days out

This board needs a Xanax sponsorship. I usually just scan the posts and it’s usually extreme happiness and then a few hours later jumping off a cliff depression

[Stratton23]

Im normally dont look at the extended range stuff, but it does appears on the GEFS that sometime late january we get a reemergence of Alaskan Blocking setting up more cross polar flow from the arctic, GEFS even at the very end of its run already has our source region reloading again, but this time with a - PNA

[Iceresistance]

We got a 1048 mb Arctic HP right now, it might be higher than 1048 mb since it's just out of the chart range


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXshL.png

[snownado]

I thought one thing was for certain and that was the cold air. Now, no?

We're in no man's land of models. You will see meltdowns, lottery winners, crying, excitement everything in the the next few days!

Here's to me being one of those lottery winners!

[snownado]

lol it might not happen but man yall jump off the bridge when models are 7-8 days out

This board needs a Xanax sponsorship. I usually just scan the posts and it’s usually extreme happiness and then a few hours later jumping off a cliff depression

I'm in the tiny minority who's good with the latest output from the model suite, haha!

I can deal with a couple days in the 20s - 40s at worst if it means no ice or power issues.