Texas Winter 2024-2025

[bubba hotep]

Run to run things will change sometimes dramatically even on ens. The overall setup is a good one for winter weather in TX and the South overall. I will take my chances every time with cold air in place and a SW trough. No it is not guaranteed but the potential is great. We should have several disturbances out of the NW flow mid next week to take advantage of the SW flow.

I've looked for papers on SW cutoff low climatology and could never really find anything. This does appear to be kind of a razor edge setup, with there not being huge differences b/w the runs that bring the energy out vs. those that leave it behind.

[Tireman4]

I thought one thing was for certain and that was the cold air. Now, no?

We're in no man's land of models. You will see meltdowns, lottery winners, crying, excitement everything in the the next few days!

Cat 5 in the Gulf!

[TropicalTundra]

Don’t know why the thread is so Debbie downer all of a sudden. The models are playing tricks, just wait until this weekend and everyone’s going to go ballistic again

[Brent]

Don’t know why the thread is so Debbie downer all of a sudden. The models are playing tricks, just wait until this weekend and everyone’s going to go ballistic again

I hope so. It's just hard to get excited here when the models show snow in every direction for like the 5th time in 3 years and honestly the pattern kind of favors us getting largely screwed up here

[wxman22]

The 18z GFS still shows the storm and has more reasonable snowfall totals compared to the 12z LOL.

[JDawg512]

I just want some nice cold rain. Don't care much for the frozen stuff. I'd be in bliss just for a nice wet day in the upper 30s-low 40s. That is outdoor weather for me...

EXW had an interesting afternoon discussion though...

[Stratton23]

Thats a ton of moisture on the 18z GFS, obviously surface temperatures this far out dont mean anything especially aince the globals arent really good at seeing surface cold, but man that surface low really pumps in a lot of moisture into the state

[Stratton23]

Jdawg512 no thank you, cold rain is just miserable lol

[Texas Snow]

 https://x.com/nwsfortworth/status/1874583034923798740

[txtwister78]

Jdawg512 no thank you, cold rain is just miserable lol

Completely agree here. Give me snow over a cold rain everyday and twice on Sunday.

[Cpv17]

Im normally dont look at the extended range stuff, but it does appears on the GEFS that sometime late january we get a reemergence of Alaskan Blocking setting up more cross polar flow from the arctic, GEFS even at the very end of its run already has our source region reloading again, but this time with a - PNA

Can we ever get a neutral or slightly negative PNA this winter?

[txtwister78]

Im normally dont look at the extended range stuff, but it does appears on the GEFS that sometime late january we get a reemergence of Alaskan Blocking setting up more cross polar flow from the arctic, GEFS even at the very end of its run already has our source region reloading again, but this time with a - PNA

Can we ever get a neutral or slightly negative PNA this winter?

Some signs that's possible mid month into latter half as trough retrogrades.

[Cpv17]

Im normally dont look at the extended range stuff, but it does appears on the GEFS that sometime late january we get a reemergence of Alaskan Blocking setting up more cross polar flow from the arctic, GEFS even at the very end of its run already has our source region reloading again, but this time with a - PNA

Can we ever get a neutral or slightly negative PNA this winter?

Some signs that's possible mid month into latter half as trough retrogrades.

Thanks man, I sure hope so. That way we won’t have to worry if it’ll be cold enough, at least.

[txtwister78]

Can we ever get a neutral or slightly negative PNA this winter?

Some signs that's possible mid month into latter half as trough retrogrades.

Thanks man, I sure hope so. That way we won’t have to worry if it’ll be cold enough, at least.

Yeah someone may have mentioned it (NTX perhaps) but typically you start seeing ridges in Feb across SE but if this trough pulls back then perhaps our odds go up mid to latter half of Jan. Race against time though with our MJO phases.

[Stratton23]

Ukmet model now on board with wintry precipitation ) doesnt have any option to view the precipitation types, but its obvious its frozen ) in central- se texas, it is colder at the surface than the other globals

[mmmmsnouts]

NWS FWD trying to scold everyone for looking at models when they do the same thing and have to update their forecasts after an event already started is pretty hilarious.

[Iceresistance]

1050 mb HP in the Arctic from new surface analysis


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXsUi.png

[Brandon8181]

Just a few thoughts of consideration.

GFS still shows nice winter precipitation. The last CMC run was pretty decent overall. The last euro jumped ship.

Keep in mind though, all of these models have been doing this, and we all know we are still too early. All we can do at this point is look at the overall trend.

I think in my personal opinion the overall trend is colder (maybe not record breaking, but colder), so let's take that! It beats 70 in the winter! Then, the next trend is it looks like at least a "reasonably" possibility that someone across the area will see some sort of winter weather.

Hopefully, the trend continues the direction we want!

The global models have been trying to latch onto something for the last week or so. So hopefully, come the weekend we will have better guidance to what next week will bring.

[gpsnowman]

NWS FWD trying to scold everyone for looking at models when they do the same thing and have to update their forecasts after an event already started is pretty hilarious.

Like Feb 2010 IIRC. They were having a hard time catching up to the insane snow amounts in real time.

[Stratton23]

18z Euro only goes out 144 hours, but it appears it made a small step in the right direction toward the GFS/ CMC, more moisture showing up at hour 144, last run was bone dry