Texas Winter 2022-2023

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PTrackerLA
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1741 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:12 am

harp wrote:We are celebrating over here on my Gulf coast forum. The GFS gives me snow on Christmas Day. It’s been close, run after run, and we are still in the game in the 4th quarter!


It's been teasing and I've been waiting for this run. Sadly it's 10 days out but with 5 days of sufficiently cold temps we could have a shot. What's the gulf coast forum you mention?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1742 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:13 am

Joe definitely not wavering, and I still think he's right. Once we get into the weekend, I think OP's are going to begin to shift back to the colder outputs. Just too much history with these arctic events here in TX to change now.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1603616425393913862


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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1743 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:14 am

PTrackerLA wrote:https://imgur.com/yRyYsgD

Texas friends scored big in 2021 but where can I cash out on this right now? :lol: Goooo west gulf low!


Good thing is that it’s showing this this far out. Every snow event that I can recall here along the Texas Gulf Coast, the models didn’t pick up on it till about 24-48 hours in advance.. so for it to be hinting at it in this range is a good sign imo.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1744 Postby harp » Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:15 am

PTrackerLA wrote:
harp wrote:We are celebrating over here on my Gulf coast forum. The GFS gives me snow on Christmas Day. It’s been close, run after run, and we are still in the game in the 4th quarter!


It's been teasing and I've been waiting for this run. Sadly it's 10 days out but with 5 days of sufficiently cold temps we could have a shot. What's the gulf coast forum you mention?

Gulfcoastwx.com
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1745 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:20 am

Cpv17 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:https://imgur.com/yRyYsgD

Texas friends scored big in 2021 but where can I cash out on this right now? :lol: Goooo west gulf low!


Good thing is that it’s showing this this far out. Every snow event that I can recall here along the Texas Gulf Coast, the models didn’t pick up on it till about 24-48 hours in advance.. so for it to be hinting at it in this range is a good sign imo.


It's just too perfect (on Christmas)... but like others have said, if a west gulf low forms anything is possible. I'm now counting 6 consecutive hard freezes on the 00z GFS for my area, would be a shame to be dry the entire time...
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1746 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:25 am

PTrackerLA wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:https://imgur.com/yRyYsgD

Texas friends scored big in 2021 but where can I cash out on this right now? :lol: Goooo west gulf low!


Good thing is that it’s showing this this far out. Every snow event that I can recall here along the Texas Gulf Coast, the models didn’t pick up on it till about 24-48 hours in advance.. so for it to be hinting at it in this range is a good sign imo.


It's just too perfect... but like others have said, if a west gulf low forms anything is possible. I'm now counting 6 consecutive hard freezes on the 00z GFS for my area, would be a shame to be dry the entire time...


If a W Gulf low can develop and dump, it’s also going to really put us in the deep freeze. Something I’ve noticed throughout the past several years with these Artic blasts is they do often develop a W Gulf low. Not uncommon at all.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1747 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:43 am

PTrackerLA wrote:https://imgur.com/yRyYsgD

Texas friends scored big in 2021 but where can I cash out on this right now? :lol: Goooo west gulf low!

Not sure if it’s possible, but I’m going to need that snow to start about 250 miles west down I-10…
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1748 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:12 am

Man it sure would be awesome if the 6z GFS verified! Several inches of snow across the southern half of the state Christmas Day into the 26th.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1749 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:34 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Man it sure would be awesome if the 6z GFS verified! Several inches of snow across the southern half of the state Christmas Day into the 26th.


Yeah that looks incredible lol I had to save that run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1750 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:35 am

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:https://imgur.com/yRyYsgD

Texas friends scored big in 2021 but where can I cash out on this right now? :lol: Goooo west gulf low!

Not sure if it’s possible, but I’m going to need that snow to start about 250 miles west down I-10…


You asked and the 6z GFS delivered lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1751 Postby txwxwatcher » Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:40 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1752 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:06 am



1895’s lil brother? :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1753 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:22 am

0z and 6z is not for me, but at least 6z delivered for Southern Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1754 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:24 am

Iceresistance wrote:0z and 6z is not for me, but at least 6z delivered for Southern Texas.


I’ll come pick you up and we can build a snowman on the beach :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1755 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:27 am

I do think South Texas will cash in with this pattern, however I think the GFS is still too far northeast with the first storm so the 2nd storm may be even further south. Something along the lines of Corpus Christi or Victoria Texas getting the brunt of it. I'm getting Christmas 2004 vibes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1756 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:31 am

Iceresistance wrote:0z and 6z is not for me, but at least 6z delivered for Southern Texas.

To me, the run is a little more positive for us further north than it looks on precip depiction. This is the first run I’ve seen with an extra lobe out to the sw in that timeframe, which would have a better chance of pulling up moisture. If SETX ends up being the ones to cash in, cheers to them, but I wouldn’t entirely count the rest of us out just yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1757 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:35 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:0z and 6z is not for me, but at least 6z delivered for Southern Texas.


I’ll come pick you up and we can build a snowman on the beach :lol:

LOL! You have to get past the extreme cold in Oklahoma! I will be fine without the snow as I may be ready to go to Missouri after Christmas, hopefully.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1758 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:39 am

I think Christmas 2004 will be my analog for this storm. However, we're dealing with arguably colder temperatures so I would shift each snowband 50-100 miles south or so.


Image


Image

Now those of us in Kansas and Oklahoma shouldn't fret just yet. The angle that this trough will be sweeping down will give us some highly efficient snowfalls in the way of clipper systems.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1759 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:42 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:0z and 6z is not for me, but at least 6z delivered for Southern Texas.

To me, the run is a little more positive for us further north than it looks on precip depiction. This is the first run I’ve seen with an extra lobe out to the sw in that timeframe, which would have a better chance of pulling up moisture. If SETX ends up being the ones to cash in, cheers to them, but I wouldn’t entirely count the rest of us out just yet.


Yeah, not at all. Still 7-9 days out. Very long time to go.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1760 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:59 am

TheProfessor wrote:I do think South Texas will cash in with this pattern, however I think the GFS is still too far northeast with the first storm so the 2nd storm may be even further south. Something along the lines of Corpus Christi or Victoria Texas getting the brunt of it. I'm getting Christmas 2004 vibes.


I want N OK and ICT to cash in so when I go home there’s snow left on the 30th even if there’s not in DFW. Lol.

The GFS would give eastern KS a lot but not Mac down to ICT.
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