Texas Winter 2024-2025

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1741 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 01, 2025 6:57 pm

Stratton23 wrote:18z Euro only goes out 144 hours, but it appears it made a small step in the right direction toward the GFS/ CMC, more moisture showing up at hour 144, last run was bone dry


1048 Arctic HP heading into lower 48, getting stronger. Winter is coming!!

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1742 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 01, 2025 7:02 pm

Well, probably canceling my Kansas Christmas unless big changes by tomorrow night. Too much ice likely on the roads with the temps dropping ahead. Hope it becomes more snow-only. Would like to see that, but can't drive in ice back on Sunday.... Will see what more high-res NAM runs show.
Last edited by rwfromkansas on Wed Jan 01, 2025 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1743 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 01, 2025 7:02 pm

orangeblood what was the MB of the high on the 12z?
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mmmmsnouts
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1744 Postby mmmmsnouts » Wed Jan 01, 2025 7:06 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
mmmmsnouts wrote:NWS FWD trying to scold everyone for looking at models when they do the same thing and have to update their forecasts after an event already started is pretty hilarious.

Like Feb 2010 IIRC. They were having a hard time catching up to the insane snow amounts in real time.


I was actually thinking of the almost total whiff on Saturday's rain event until it was just about to happen but yes, that too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1745 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 01, 2025 7:09 pm

Stratton23 wrote:orangeblood what was the MB of the high on the 12z?


1045
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Stratton23
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1746 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 01, 2025 8:03 pm

UKMET has snow breaking out in central texas at day 7
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1747 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 01, 2025 8:05 pm

If the GFS doesn't stop with the snow holes here I'm gonna end up going back to Colorado or driving to Missouri this weekend :spam: like come on already I waited through months of heat and humidity for this
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1748 Postby Harp.1 » Wed Jan 01, 2025 9:37 pm

This place is DEAD. Never a good sign…
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1749 Postby Gotwood » Wed Jan 01, 2025 9:38 pm

Harp.1 wrote:This place is DEAD. Never a good sign…

Nothing to talk about in between runs
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1750 Postby Pas_Bon » Wed Jan 01, 2025 9:48 pm

Gotwood wrote:
Harp.1 wrote:This place is DEAD. Never a good sign…

Nothing to talk about in between runs


So….ummm…..whatcha doin’?

Kidding.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1751 Postby cajungal » Wed Jan 01, 2025 10:00 pm

Testing 1, 2, 3! :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1752 Postby Sambucol2024 » Wed Jan 01, 2025 10:05 pm

What time are the next model runs? Thanks in advance.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1753 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 01, 2025 10:06 pm

Sambucol2024 wrote:What time are the next model runs? Thanks in advance.


GFS Icon CMC about an hour or so and then the Euro in about 2. Ensembles add another hour
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1754 Postby Harp.1 » Wed Jan 01, 2025 10:13 pm

Icon running now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1755 Postby wxman22 » Wed Jan 01, 2025 10:35 pm

Good trend on the ICON, looks similar to the GFS and CMC. The shortwave starts to crank up and has the storm starting to produce precip at the end of the run as it only goes out to 180 hours.


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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1756 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Jan 01, 2025 10:40 pm

wxman22 wrote:Good trend on the ICON, looks similar to the GFS and CMC. The shortwave starts to crank up and has the storm starting to produce precip at the end of the run as it only goes out to 180 hours.


https://i.ibb.co/NF47QvB/500hv-conus.png

That's more like what we expect that SW trough to act like. A great setup for snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1757 Postby Gotwood » Wed Jan 01, 2025 10:46 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
wxman22 wrote:Good trend on the ICON, looks similar to the GFS and CMC. The shortwave starts to crank up and has the storm starting to produce precip at the end of the run as it only goes out to 180 hours.


https://i.ibb.co/NF47QvB/500hv-conus.png

That's more like what we expect that SW trough to act like. A great setup for snow.

Yeah ICON gets rid of the cold very fast not sure if that will be the case. AO is going extremely negative.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1758 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Wed Jan 01, 2025 11:11 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Jdawg512 no thank you, cold rain is just miserable lol


Completely agree here. Give me snow over a cold rain everyday and twice on Sunday.


One more vote for cold rain is the worst weather imaginable. Give me snow and sleet over that a million times over
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1759 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 01, 2025 11:23 pm

00z GFS
big snowstorm for houston
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1760 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 01, 2025 11:23 pm

Houston snow special on 0z GFS.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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