Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
vbhoutex...I am glad you are interested in our corner of the world. The subtle complexities of predicting the weather in this region are mind bending at times. You can tell by the number of members on here from the northern half of western Washington, that the region does have some interesting weather.
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TT-SEA
Snow_Wizzard... I will stand by my new forecast and say we are going to be warm and getting wet. Could hit 60 degrees with clouds southerly flow by Monday or Tuesday. No chance of arctic air next week. None.
I have been right on with my forecast so far (actually... I have been a little too cold). We will see.
But I definitely respect your opinion!! I think its wrong... but I respect it.
You are going to hate the rest of February but you are going to love March!!
I have been right on with my forecast so far (actually... I have been a little too cold). We will see.
But I definitely respect your opinion!! I think its wrong... but I respect it.
You are going to hate the rest of February but you are going to love March!!
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vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 29113
- Age: 73
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Cypress, TX
- Contact:
snow_wizzard wrote:vbhoutex...I am glad you are interested in our corner of the world. The subtle complexities of predicting the weather in this region are mind bending at times. You can tell by the number of members on here from the northern half of western Washington, that the region does have some interesting weather.
Two reasons I am interested in that area. My dad was born in Anacortes and on my one visit to the area I fell absolutley in love with it. And what happens there affects what happens elsewhere in the US further down the line so we need to watch the weather there too.
Keep up the good discussions. I might understand the complexities you guys are dealing with one of these days.
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Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
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Brian_from_bellingham
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
Vbhoutex, I am from Anacortes, grew up there.
Local forecasters always talk about how hard it is to forecast here, since our weather comes in from the ocean, there is a lot less data to base forecasts on, compared to people in the mid west or east.
Hopefully we can have good discussions without getting too personal. Disagreement is fine, but we should all try to not get in each others nerves.
Local forecasters always talk about how hard it is to forecast here, since our weather comes in from the ocean, there is a lot less data to base forecasts on, compared to people in the mid west or east.
Hopefully we can have good discussions without getting too personal. Disagreement is fine, but we should all try to not get in each others nerves.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145804
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Brian_from_bellingham wrote:Vbhoutex, I am from Anacortes, grew up there.
Local forecasters always talk about how hard it is to forecast here, since our weather comes in from the ocean, there is a lot less data to base forecasts on, compared to people in the mid west or east.
Hopefully we can have good discussions without getting too personal. Disagreement is fine, but we should all try to not get in each others nerves.
Excellent my friend.Keep this thread going this way with all those great discussions about the weather in the Northwest US.There will be disagreements in some of those discussions from members who post here but in general this thread is right to the point about what is going on at that part of the US.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
TT...If you don't mind me asking, what has sparked your interest about March? There is no doubt that many of the analog years have been from years that had very cold March's. I think it could be a fun month. It may end up being a huge snow month for the mountains too.
As for next week...I stress, be careful about predicting anything too extreme one way or the other. It continues to look like we could have an interaction between the northern and southern branches of the jetstream. There will be a split off the coast which will come together somewhere around the WA and OR border. Those things are notriously difficult to predict. My friend at NOAA had an interesting comment about it. He said he has to be away on business next week, and he is a bit worried he may miss something good. It must be stated, however, that there is MUCH uncertainty.
As for next week...I stress, be careful about predicting anything too extreme one way or the other. It continues to look like we could have an interaction between the northern and southern branches of the jetstream. There will be a split off the coast which will come together somewhere around the WA and OR border. Those things are notriously difficult to predict. My friend at NOAA had an interesting comment about it. He said he has to be away on business next week, and he is a bit worried he may miss something good. It must be stated, however, that there is MUCH uncertainty.
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TT-SEA
I always look cautiously at the models... but I am extremely confident about warmth next week. I have also been confident about above normal temperatures this coming Thursday and Friday for a LONG time now. It is coming together perfectly. This winter... the pattern is fairly easy to follow.
You may hate the pattern... and it may seem unpredictable to you because it has NOT gone the way you want. But if you look objectively and without any bias towards cold weather you will see a persistent pattern. Your forecasting weakness is that you EXPECT cold to come... when it doesn't you wonder why the pattern is so unpredictable.
Split flow and blocking. Follow it and it becomes easier to predict.
I would love for you to come out and say... southerly flow and warm next week. That is what will happen. But you want cold so you cannot bring yourself to that conclusion. You keep hoping. Thats cool... but it makes for some bad forecasts. I respect your love of winter but it definitely "clouds" your judgement.
No anger here... just some observations.
You may hate the pattern... and it may seem unpredictable to you because it has NOT gone the way you want. But if you look objectively and without any bias towards cold weather you will see a persistent pattern. Your forecasting weakness is that you EXPECT cold to come... when it doesn't you wonder why the pattern is so unpredictable.
Split flow and blocking. Follow it and it becomes easier to predict.
I would love for you to come out and say... southerly flow and warm next week. That is what will happen. But you want cold so you cannot bring yourself to that conclusion. You keep hoping. Thats cool... but it makes for some bad forecasts. I respect your love of winter but it definitely "clouds" your judgement.
No anger here... just some observations.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
It could be mild, but I just don't see it that warm. The thicknesses stay below 540 and the surface pressure gradient is N to S...not favorable for overly warm conditions. In a case like this surface pressure maps and upper level maps can seem to conflict rather sharply. If mositure makes it up from the south there will be considerable wet bulb effect cooling that could keep temps in the 40s. There is a fair chance either one of us could be right on this. It is not certain either way. Analyzing suface pressure maps is one of my specialties, and at face value this situation early next week looks like normal temps or a bit below. I will say that the prospects for well below normal temps seem to have diminished for now. We will just have to wait and see. There is no question that there is doubt about how this will play out. There is always some doubt when dealing with weather.
I will admit that I am on losing streak this winter, but I have had many moments of glory in the past. I hope that returns. Wishful thinking aside, I just don't see it being that warm next week, unless the moisture from the south does not make it in and the pressure gradient is more E to W instead of N to S.
I will admit that I am on losing streak this winter, but I have had many moments of glory in the past. I hope that returns. Wishful thinking aside, I just don't see it being that warm next week, unless the moisture from the south does not make it in and the pressure gradient is more E to W instead of N to S.
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AWESOME DAY!!! Beautiful sunshine with a current temperature of 46 F.
Today makes me want an early spring/summer. If we can't get lowland snow/arctic air, why even bother with winter? It's kind of a waste.
As for the extended, ALL models have abandoned the idea of an arctic outbreak for next week. It's amazing how models can change so drastically within two days. On Sunday night, 850 mb heights were down to -20C...today they're at 0C.
Just looked at the latest 12Z GFS model and it keeps 500 mb heights at about 540 all of next week...a little different from the 00Z and 06Z runs. That would be great for a zonal flow, but not much moisture makes it north...alot of the southern branch systems head into southern Oregon/northern California. I see where snow_wizzard is excited about the northern/southern branches combining together, but with this persistent split flow this entire winter, I don't think we'll get that lucky.
So hey, if we can get snow/cold I would much rather have this AWESOME SUN and cool temperatures. AWESOME DAY!!
Anthony
Today makes me want an early spring/summer. If we can't get lowland snow/arctic air, why even bother with winter? It's kind of a waste.
As for the extended, ALL models have abandoned the idea of an arctic outbreak for next week. It's amazing how models can change so drastically within two days. On Sunday night, 850 mb heights were down to -20C...today they're at 0C.
Just looked at the latest 12Z GFS model and it keeps 500 mb heights at about 540 all of next week...a little different from the 00Z and 06Z runs. That would be great for a zonal flow, but not much moisture makes it north...alot of the southern branch systems head into southern Oregon/northern California. I see where snow_wizzard is excited about the northern/southern branches combining together, but with this persistent split flow this entire winter, I don't think we'll get that lucky.
So hey, if we can get snow/cold I would much rather have this AWESOME SUN and cool temperatures. AWESOME DAY!!
Anthony
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Todays frosty morning, we it a low of 27.1 degrees, just as I predicted 
................................
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph
................................
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph
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Latest NCEP 6-10 day forecast map..............
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Hey all. Here`s a few pics I took earlier today of Mt.Baker and the snowy Cascades while out on a walk on the Tolt pipeline. -- Andy
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/187e
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/187e
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145804
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
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Congrats Brian and all who are mantaining this thread running.The storm2k stats show that this thread ranks #5 as one of the most active topics and #5 as one of the most viewed.Keep it going guys.
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1 33568 S2K Bar! (Enter at your own risk!!)
2 12922 Jamaica Radio (repost0
3 11698 Weather Jeopardy
4 11549 FOR THE LADIES!!!!! (And the Brave Men!)
5 11166 Pacific Northwest Weather
6 8866 Sittin' on the Front Porch
7 7262 New & Improved S2K Bar! (Enter at your own risk!!)
8 7027 Sittin' Around The Pot Belly Stove
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5 1774 Pacific Northwest Weather
6 1729 The Official Play-By-Play Baseball Thread
7 1697 Sittin' on the Front Porch
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Congrats Brian and all who are mantaining this thread running.The storm2k stats show that this thread ranks #5 as one of the most active topics and #5 as one of the most viewed.Keep it going guys.
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cycloneye wrote:Most Viewed Topics
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5 11166 Pacific Northwest Weather
6 8866 Sittin' on the Front Porch
7 7262 New & Improved S2K Bar! (Enter at your own risk!!)
8 7027 Sittin' Around The Pot Belly Stove
9 6234 Post Club Update
10 5781 "Sittin' 'round The Pot Belly Stove"
11 5772 MAJOR DEVELOPMENT WITH CHARLEY TRACK?
12 5528 Post your local Mets comments on Isabelle
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5 1774 Pacific Northwest Weather
6 1729 The Official Play-By-Play Baseball Thread
7 1697 Sittin' on the Front Porch
8 1314 Post Club Update
9 1259 Sittin' Around The Pot Belly Stove
10 798 "Sittin' 'round The Pot Belly Stove"
11 717 Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA
12 706 The Mighty Prayer Warrior Request Thread!
13 631 POST CURRENT SEVERE WX WARNINGS HERE!!!
14 629 Jacksonville Florida Reports
15 551 Jamaica Radio (repost0
Congrats Brian and all who are mantaining this thread running.The storm2k stats show that this thread ranks #5 as one of the most active topics and #5 as one of the most viewed.Keep it going guys.
WHOO HOOO!!! We are in the top 5!
Storm2k is a wonderful place to call home
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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R-Dub wrote:cycloneye wrote:Most Viewed Topics
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2 12922 Jamaica Radio (repost0
3 11698 Weather Jeopardy
4 11549 FOR THE LADIES!!!!! (And the Brave Men!)
5 11166 Pacific Northwest Weather
6 8866 Sittin' on the Front Porch
7 7262 New & Improved S2K Bar! (Enter at your own risk!!)
8 7027 Sittin' Around The Pot Belly Stove
9 6234 Post Club Update
10 5781 "Sittin' 'round The Pot Belly Stove"
11 5772 MAJOR DEVELOPMENT WITH CHARLEY TRACK?
12 5528 Post your local Mets comments on Isabelle
13 5356 Jacksonville Florida Reports
14 5006 The Mighty Prayer Warrior Request Thread!
15 4878 Some Prelim Preparation Steps from Storm2K
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Rank Replies Topic
1 9057 S2K Bar! (Enter at your own risk!!)
2 3770 FOR THE LADIES!!!!! (And the Brave Men!)
3 2946 Weather Jeopardy
4 1910 New & Improved S2K Bar! (Enter at your own risk!!)
5 1774 Pacific Northwest Weather
6 1729 The Official Play-By-Play Baseball Thread
7 1697 Sittin' on the Front Porch
8 1314 Post Club Update
9 1259 Sittin' Around The Pot Belly Stove
10 798 "Sittin' 'round The Pot Belly Stove"
11 717 Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA
12 706 The Mighty Prayer Warrior Request Thread!
13 631 POST CURRENT SEVERE WX WARNINGS HERE!!!
14 629 Jacksonville Florida Reports
15 551 Jamaica Radio (repost0
Congrats Brian and all who are mantaining this thread running.The storm2k stats show that this thread ranks #5 as one of the most active topics and #5 as one of the most viewed.Keep it going guys.
WHOO HOOO!!! We are in the top 5!
Storm2k is a wonderful place to call home
And the thread has rised to the top 5 in less than a month which in the storm2k life of a little over 2 years never has been done.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Looking at this evenings 18z GFS....tomorrow through at least during the day Saturday is still looking mostly sunny. Though, come late Saturday night into early dark hours of Sunday morning, we could see some showers around Western Wa. But showers should remain light and only .25" or less as per 12hr to 24hr precip totals ending 06z Sunday evening. Sunday may end up being a dry day, but on the mostly cloudy side as 1008MB low off the Northern Cal. coast sends clouds and rain up too the Northern OR coast and Portland areas.
850MB temps during this time are around 0C and warming to near +3C by Friday into Saturday, but cooling back down around -3 to near -6C by late Sunday. 500MB voricity heights are 558DM and rising to near 564DM by late in the work week, and then going down between 552 and 546DM over the weekend. So will say that Thursday and Friday could be our warmest days of when we see highs in the upper 50`s. And For the weekend, we`ll see highs in the mid-upper 40`s.
-- Andy
850MB temps during this time are around 0C and warming to near +3C by Friday into Saturday, but cooling back down around -3 to near -6C by late Sunday. 500MB voricity heights are 558DM and rising to near 564DM by late in the work week, and then going down between 552 and 546DM over the weekend. So will say that Thursday and Friday could be our warmest days of when we see highs in the upper 50`s. And For the weekend, we`ll see highs in the mid-upper 40`s.
-- Andy
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