Texas Winter 2014-2015

[SouthernMet]

It is only 8 in Denver right now with snow, they are not supposed to reach 0 tomorrow. Only made it into the mid 40s here when upper 50s were forecasted a couple days ago, the sun never broke out here.

Check this out : http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplu ... YP=roadmap

even the SREF was off by about 3-4 degrees too warm last night fwiw.

[ndale]

EWX has moved the freezing rain over into my area according to their latest point forecast.

[Portastorm]

Winter Storm Watch up for a large portion of west texas, for ice accumulations.

Unbelievable how quiet it is in on here.

I've got nothing to add to what I wrote this morning. Still think model guidance too warm and that freezing rain will impact the I-35 corridor by New Years morning and possibly New Years Eve. Tomorrow will be a very interesting day to see what changes, if any, guidance provides and how the Texas-based NWSFOs handle things.

I've never seen a 1050+ mb high as close as Kansas in winter with Arctic origins which kept Austin's temperature max above freezing. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Austin's temperature stayed at or around or below 32 on New Years Day.

That's all I got at the moment.

[ndale]

It appears that EWX is ever so slowly moving their freezing rain line eastward. Will see what they do by tomorrow.

[TexasF6]

http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/currents/ ... mp/us.html

[Longhornmaniac8]

http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/currents/apparenttemp/us.html

So we have temperatures at 13 near Dalhart (hard to tell exactly what station that is), and it's 54 in Lubbock(ish)? Let me say again how confident I am that these temperatures will verify...riiiight

[SouthernMet]

After looking at all the latest data, atm it looks like the bullseye for ice accumulations will be between Abilene-Mineral Wells. This could change, stay tuned...

[Tammie]

Did the NWS remove our "Special Weather Statement" for North Texas? Looks like they are changing their forecasts literally from model run to model run now. Just a little confusing/frustrating that they keep altering their forecast every 3 hours. JMO.

[SouthernMet]

Did the NWS remove our "Special Weather Statement" for North Texas? Looks like they are changing their forecasts literally from model run to model run now. Just a little confusing/frustrating that they keep altering their forecast every 3 hours. JMO.

This is a very, & I mean very, difficult forecast to make. Freezing Rain is the hardest precip type to forecast... Also the models are being bipolar with the timing and this effects everything, nws is playing catch up, adjusting accordingly.

edit : they did lower temps wednesday night/thursday

[weatherguy425]

http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/currents/apparenttemp/us.html

So we have temperatures at 13 near Dalhart (hard to tell exactly what station that is), and it's 54 in Lubbock(ish)? Let me say again how confident I am that these temperatures will verify...riiiight

Keep in mind, those are apparent, or 'feels like' temperatures. Those values are not actual temperatures.

[Longhornmaniac8]

http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/currents/apparenttemp/us.html

So we have temperatures at 13 near Dalhart (hard to tell exactly what station that is), and it's 54 in Lubbock(ish)? Let me say again how confident I am that these temperatures will verify...riiiight

Keep in mind, those are apparent, or 'feels like' temperatures. Those values are not actual temperatures.

Doh! Reading helps.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Nice snow being laid down in front of the approaching HP too. Looks like the front is through Amarillo, lets see how the temp drops.

[weatherguy425]

Also, I'm sure this has already been said - just in a different way...

I don't think the big issue is with forecast models being 'too warm', rather they are struggling with how far south this cold air-mass pushes. Within a reasonable margin of error, data isnt 'busting' left and right like previous outbreaks have.

For example GFS MOS data and NAM MET data have Lubbock in the 10-15 range the next two mornings, with highs in the middle 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Is that a 'bust' too warm? Not in my opinion, though I don't see a 10-15 diurnal range under thick cloud cover. However, further south, models will be too warm simply because they are underestimating the physics behind a dense, cold, air-mass. They 'like' to move south... In a hurry... If the patterns favors it.

[TexasF6]

Yes apparent temps. True temps are also awesome and not following the models!!!

[davidiowx]

Nice snow being laid down in front of the approaching HP too. Looks like the front is through Amarillo, lets see how the temp drops.

Based off of the NWS site it is 43 in Lubbock and 29 in Amarillo with a wind chill of -2

[Portastorm]

Also, I'm sure this has already been said - just in a different way...

I don't think the big issue is with forecast models being 'too warm', rather they are struggling with how far south this cold air-mass pushes. Within a reasonable margin of error, data isnt 'busting' left and right like previous outbreaks have.

For example GFS MOS data and NAM MET data have Lubbock in the 10-15 range the next two mornings, with highs in the middle 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Is that a 'bust' too warm? Not in my opinion, though I don't see a 10-15 diurnal range under thick cloud cover. However, further south, models will be too warm simply because they are underestimating the physics behind a dense, cold, air-mass. They 'like' to move south... In a hurry... If the patterns favors it.

While I agree with your post, I did show earlier today that the GFS was busting on temps up in western Kansas and Nebraska. It was off by 5-6 degrees in those locales at late morning. Will be curious to see how tonight's 0z GFS does with Amarillo temps tomorrow morning.

[Ralph's Weather]

42 here before a very strong Arctic front with moisture coming in behind it, hard to imagine staying above freezing much at all for the next few days.

[Tireman4]

Houston still rainy...?

[kingwood_tx1999]

Houston still rainy...?

Ya I don't think we will get anything more than a cold rain

[KatDaddy]

A cold rain at this point.