Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Brent]

Euro is definitely trying to head towards the Canadian for Sat-Sun. What was bone dry is now a fairly vigorious system crossing coastal Texas and precip along the Red River with 850s approaching 0C or less. 546dm heights digging into the eastern half of the state, so likely some CAA.

King CMC?

[Ntxw]

Euro also has a large swath of light snow for the northern half of Texas (1-3") come Monday with Polar/Arctic front passage. High ratio type snow stuff.

[Brent]

Euro also has a large swath of light snow for the northern half of Texas (1-3") come Monday with Polar/Arctic front passage. High ratio type snow stuff.

[Ntxw]

Euro also has a large swath of light snow for the northern half of Texas (1-3") come Monday with Polar/Arctic front passage. High ratio type snow stuff.

It also has temps in the upper 20s while this is happening so if it verified, will stick.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Bipolar wxman57 can be seen here. March 2014. What a winter that was!

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=116197

Youre welcome

[EnnisTx]

Euro also has a large swath of light snow for the northern half of Texas (1-3") come Monday with Polar/Arctic front passage. High ratio type snow stuff.

It also has temps in the upper 20s while this is happening so if it verified, will stick.

How far South are you talking on the 1-3" snow?

[stormlover2013]

maybe I-20, but this is sunday into monday....alot of things can change!!!

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Saw an interesting factoid in the latest SCIPP newsletter last night: the temperature in Houston has dropped below 19 degrees F 50 times in the past 122 years. But none of those instances occurred during one of the 20 strongest El Ninos recorded.

Take a look at 1983. Dec-Feb value of +2.1 in Nino 3.4. We dropped to around 10-11 degrees and remained below freezing for 5 days in Houston. Had a high of 27 on Christmas Eve.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[wxman57]

Bipolar wxman57 can be seen here. March 2014. What a winter that was!

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=116197

After a period of electro-shock therapy that winter, I think I was cured.

However, the though of riding my bike in sub-freezing weather does sound sort of nice, particularly if the north wind is very strong and there is some freezing rain around...

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Saw an interesting factoid in the latest SCIPP newsletter last night: the temperature in Houston has dropped below 19 degrees F 50 times in the past 122 years. But none of those instances occurred during one of the 20 strongest El Ninos recorded.

Take a look at 1983. Dec-Feb value of +2.1 in Nino 3.4. We dropped to around 10-11 degrees and remained below freezing for 5 days in Houston. Had a high of 27 on Christmas Eve.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Don't shoot the messenger, Heat Miser. I was merely quoting an article from the latest SCIPP newsletter. This organization is: SCIPP is a Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) team supported by the Climate Program Office at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). We strive to continue the successful model developed by other RISA teams across the United States in performing application-based climate research that actively engages participation, interaction, and feedback from a diverse community of stakeholders region-wide.

Here is a link to the newsletter: http://www.southernclimate.org/documents/SCIPP_Monitor_November_2015.pdf

[Tireman4]

Bipolar wxman57 can be seen here. March 2014. What a winter that was!

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=116197

After a period of electro-shock therapy that winter, I think I was cured.

However, the though of riding my bike in sub-freezing weather does sound sort of nice, particularly if the north wind is very strong and there is some freezing rain around...

Oh no here we go again. Are you taking the meds the GFS is taking? I do not think I can take it again...crazy mixed up forecasts...you talking to yourself again...no...no..no..

[Ntxw]

Take a look at 1983. Dec-Feb value of +2.1 in Nino 3.4. We dropped to around 10-11 degrees and remained below freezing for 5 days in Houston. Had a high of 27 on Christmas Eve.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Don't shoot the messenger, Heat Miser. I was merely quoting an article from the latest SCIPP newsletter. This organization is: SCIPP is a Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) team supported by the Climate Program Office at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). We strive to continue the successful model developed by other RISA teams across the United States in performing application-based climate research that actively engages participation, interaction, and feedback from a diverse community of stakeholders region-wide.

Here is a link to the newsletter: http://www.southernclimate.org/documents/SCIPP_Monitor_November_2015.pdf

Wxman57 you're thinking of December 1983, that was ONI value of -0.8 which is weak Nina levels. The big Nino ended summer of 1983. It began spring of 1982 so the Nino was the prior winter of 82-83 not for the Christmas outbreak of '83 going into '84

We need someone to take a brave wager vs the heat miser

[Tireman4]

Goodbye to Yellow Brick Road..Welcome to Ice Lined Streets with tons of snow on them - ME!!

[ROCK]

wow that 12Z GFS looks nasty....thank goodness its a week away....

[hriverajr]

It's quiet in here.. and as promised I have not checked any models. I wonder what that means.. hehe

[Ntxw]

It's quiet in here.. and as promised I have not checked any models. I wonder what that means.. hehe

It means the 18z GFS isn't showing any snow

There's some weather happening tomorrow, rain.

There's also mudslides going on around LA. Beginning of a long week for them.

[hriverajr]

It's quiet in here.. and as promised I have not checked any models. I wonder what that means.. hehe

It means the 18z GFS isn't showing any snow

There's some weather happening tomorrow, rain.

There's also mudslides going on around LA. Beginning of a long week for them.

This is my suspicion on what is going to happen....

(1) Coldest air is probably going to be directed more southeast than south. Lets face it HP's under 1040 are not going to drill cold air straight into Texas.
(2) Lack of strong disturbances results in only light snow.

Oh and it seems even the severity of cold air will not be sustained east.

[Ntxw]

This is my suspicion on what is going to happen....

(1) Coldest air is probably going to be directed more southeast than south. Lets face it HP's under 1040 are not going to drill cold air straight into Texas.
(2) Lack of strong disturbances results in only light snow.

Oh and it seems even the severity of cold air will not be sustained east.

With a +PNA there's always the risk it could slide east if the ridge out west starts moving into the Rockies yeah. I'm not a huge fan of the +PNA, it's more favorable for east coast if anything. Unless there is a monster system coming out of the southern stream to drag the cold air back SW. We'll see though most of us aren't greedy we'll take light snow and 29F

[gpsnowman]

Severe arctic blasts are very fun and fun to track upon arrival with dry cold air in place. But give me a beautiful snowfall at 29 degrees any during winter. To me, a steady and moderate to heavy snowfall is the most beautiful thing in nature. And nature has numerous moments of beauty. Watching snow fall just takes my breath away and is the most tranquil, peaceful experience a person can have in my honest opinion. Without a sound, snow can accumulate into this amazing layer of a perfect, untouched blanket of beauty that all of us can just sit back and admire. It rehashes old memories, creates new ones, and certainly procures a piece of mind through nature at its best. I do believe we will see some snow this winter, even Portastorm.

[Tireman4]

Umm Rock..umm..is that you?l I thought you were hibernation..