Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

It's a complete miss phase on this run. That baja low is a mess.

[Brent]

Minneapolis almost goes to rain on Christmas Day. Insane. 50s in Iowa.

[weatherdude1108]

topped out at 35 here in South Austin

Yeah so far I've topped out at 36 degrees (current) and my low was 26. Have my outdoor temp sensor facing north and about 7-8 feet off the ground and under an overhang. I seem to run a wee bit warmer than some other Weather Underground stations around me but my temps match the local, close-by LCRA gauge so I guess I'm not too far off.

I topped out at 34 this afternoon. Lowest of 24 this morning. Currently 27 at 11pm. My sensor is located under an overhang 10 feet or so above ground that is exposed to air movement, but protected from precipitation that falls. My landscape plants look stressed now.

[Brent]

Euro pretty much has the same result as the GFS... 70s and rain for Christmas.

[Ralph's Weather]

Down to 21. Mid teens look possible.

[WeatherGuesser]

Euro pretty much has the same result as the GFS... 70s and rain for Christmas.

Works for me.

[PineyWoods]

17° here in Tyler at 6am. This cold sure seems wasted without snow. Hope the models change some for this coming weekend. 70's on Christmas just doesn't feel right.

[weatherdude1108]

22 here at the house. We have officially had our first "hard freeze" of the year.

[Cerlin]

It has gotten all the way down to 14 degrees here in Frisco.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Picked up another single digit freeze with temp of 9 this morning paired with a heavy frost. Looks like today we might just barely rise above freezing.

[Snowman67]

From Hou/Galv NWS morning discussion:

Beyond Thursday the models are having a hard time determining what
to do with the eventual cutoff low in the Pacific. Thursday into
Friday the ECMWF wants to bring dig a strong shortwave down the
Pacific coast which would kick the upper low east reaching the
Plains Friday night. GFS digs the shortwave in a similar fashion
but still keeps the cut off low off the coast of Baja Mexico. The
GFS then shears out the cut off over the weekend. The end results
have both the ECMWF and GFS with a long wave trough over the
Rockies and Plains with a deep surface low over the northern
plains. This has a cold front pushing through SE Texas next
Monday/Tuesday. Until then the forecast is very uncertain with
regards to the temperature forecast and even rain chances
Ensemble MOS for both the GFS and ECMWF have high standard
deviations for temperatures, and GEFS temperature plume diagram
shows large ranges in temperatures among the ensemble members.
Once again sticking to a blend of the guidance seems prudent until
the models can settle more on a solution.

[wxman57]

I'm back in control of the Texas weather. Overnight GFS runs have warm southerly winds across Texas next weekend. No more cold front.

[Snowman67]

I'm back in control of the Texas weather. Overnight GFS runs have warm southerly winds across Texas next weekend. No more cold front.

That did it 57! I am going into the lab to conjure up a cold outbreak for SE Texas that will dwarf this one. It may not come in the next few weeks....but it will come. Be afraid....be very afraid.

[1900hurricane]

Wow, 00Z ECMWF actually looks like it it could be a Christmas Day chasing miracle across the plains!

[Portastorm]

Low temp of 24 here at the PWC. While the Gee Whiz element of this Arctic outbreak was kinda fun ... let's not waste any more cold air. The next time we see subfreezing temps, it better come with precip. Right?!

[WeatherGuesser]

Wow, 00Z ECMWF actually looks like it it could be a Christmas Day chasing miracle across the plains!

And if there is damage, are you willing to help the victims pick up the pieces and rebuild? Or even help them find an alternate place to open whatever gifts they can recover after your 'miracle'?

[Portastorm]

Wow, 00Z ECMWF actually looks like it it could be a Christmas Day chasing miracle across the plains!

And if there is damage, are you willing to help the victims pick up the pieces and rebuild? Or even help them find an alternate place to open whatever gifts they can recover after your 'miracle'?

The enthusiasm expressed was about a somewhat rare opportunity to storm chase during late December. I'm pretty confident that 1900hurricane meant no disrespect or ill will towards anyone who would be impacted negatively by such an event.

After all this is a weather forum where severe weather events are appreciated for their scientific and societal impacts. No one here to my knowledge roots for property damage and/or injury.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I can safely say the 6z GFS will not come to fruition.

[Snowman67]

I can safely say the 6z GFS will not come to fruition.

What is it showing?

[gpsnowman]

I remember last Christmas was so warm and muggy. Christmas is always special, just need some cold to make it "extra" special. No need for snow, rain, or ice. Just some cold air.