Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman22]

[wxman22]

The 0z and 6z Euro is picking up on snow in the panhandle, it’s a step at least.

[gpsnowman]

https://i.ibb.co/TH0Mmkv/IMG-0084.png

https://i.ibb.co/W3ZYWNC/IMG-0085.png

Hope there is something to this. Not one local channel is advertising anything close to this. Perhaps they are being coy.
At work watching live reports from snowy upstate NY on the Weather Channel. Gorgeous snow falling

[HockeyTx82]

https://i.ibb.co/TH0Mmkv/IMG-0084.png

https://i.ibb.co/W3ZYWNC/IMG-0085.png

Hope there is something to this. Not one local channel is advertising anything close to this. Perhaps they are being coy.
At work watching live reports from snowy upstate NY on the Weather Channel. Gorgeous snow falling

Fox 4 this morning said yeah it's winter. It's going to be seasonal this week. And I'm not seeing any moisture. Ask folks in Minnesota of 15F is cold.

So he is not impressed.

[Brent]

Gotta watch the ensembles can't trust the op runs

I hope it trends better and it can but there was still a lot of dry ones earlier

[bubba hotep]

The 0z and 6z Euro is picking up on snow in the panhandle, it’s a step at least.

https://i.ibb.co/hWJsdtL/IMG-0086.png

Feel like the 06z Euro has a pretty good look at 144 hrs

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Back from a week in Crested Butte. Cold place man. Snowed every day.

On the way there, a week ago, I received calls from my buddies saying that multiple people are telling them about snow in Houston. I dont know what media outlet is advertising this like it's a given, but I warned them that it was way too far out to lock in this snow event.

Looks like a battle between the GFS and the Euro. Will the low cut off near the Baja, or not. Interesting few days to come.




Been really focussing on the MJO recently, since I believe it to be the major driver at the moment, currently expected to be in phase 1 around Jan 8th, and roll into phase 2 days after that. I think a strong phase 2 in Jan will be positive for Texas.

[gpsnowman]

Looks like KC and St. Louis will get blasted with snow this weekend. Probably watch TWC to watch the storm live. Cpv17 mentioned Missouri is a great state for weather enthusiasts. I think he is correct. Summers are hot as hell but fall and winter are great with winter extremes almost certain. Remember the -4° playoff game last year against Miami? And Missouri can compete with anyone regarding severe thunderstorms. Plus it is a naturally beautiful state on top of all that.
Paid for by the Missouri Travel Board.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 0z and 6z Euro is picking up on snow in the panhandle, it’s a step at least.

https://i.ibb.co/hWJsdtL/IMG-0086.png

Feel like the 06z Euro has a pretty good look at 144 hrs

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgTEcpTW4AAQdaB?format=png&name=small

I think the key is how strong the subtropical high is in the C American region. The GFS has a weaker high than the Euro. May be something to watch.

[bubba hotep]

The 12z Icon drops the TPV into Illinois with single-digit highs, which also crushes any chance of the low coming out across Texas.

[Ntxw]

Yeah we basically want a phased/faster ejection of the southwest trough.

[Ntxw]

The 12z Icon drops the TPV into Illinois with single-digit highs, which also crushes any chance of the low coming out across Texas.

It does come out though compared to prior runs thus giving S and SE Texas snow.

[wxman22]

12z ICON flipped. Has some nice snow in central and southeast Texas.

[bubba hotep]

The 12z Icon drops the TPV into Illinois with single-digit highs, which also crushes any chance of the low coming out across Texas.

It does come out though compared to prior runs thus giving S and SE Texas snow.

True. For us in North Texas, we need some better spacing b/w the TPV and the Baja Low. Also, I wouldn't put too much stock in the South Texas snow b/c the energy coming out of the SW is getting sheared into the base of the trough. It would be a close call. Overall, we all want the TPV to stay farther from NE.

[Brent]

Looks like KC and St. Louis will get blasted with snow this weekend. Probably watch TWC to watch the storm live. Cpv17 mentioned Missouri is a great state for weather enthusiasts. I think he is correct. Summers are hot as hell but fall and winter are great with winter extremes almost certain. Remember the -4° playoff game last year against Miami? And Missouri can compete with anyone regarding severe thunderstorms. Plus it is a naturally beautiful state on top of all that.
Paid for by the Missouri Travel Board.

Yeah I've been watching up there but KC and St Louis may get wrecked by ice instead. It's gonna be a very close call. I think the best snow might be more St Joseph

Remembers when we had a shot at this storm just horrible trends we never win at this

[Ntxw]

The 12z Icon drops the TPV into Illinois with single-digit highs, which also crushes any chance of the low coming out across Texas.

It does come out though compared to prior runs thus giving S and SE Texas snow.

True. For us in North Texas, we need some better spacing b/w the TPV and the Baja Low. Also, I wouldn't put too much stock in the South Texas snow b/c the energy coming out of the SW is getting sheared into the base of the trough. It would be a close call. Overall, we all want the TPV to stay farther from NE.

Ejecting Southwest lows are hard to predict especially in a case where it's not a wound up cutoff low. It's opening up so it's basically a shooting gallery of disturbances. I wouldn't get excited, north, central, or SE Texas on any snow map. We are basically looking for consensus eventually if it's coming out or not first. You're right though more separation is good but not too much, because then we'll be eroding the cold air source. Always has to be just right .

[Harp.1]

Icon gives south Louisiana some snow!

[HockeyTx82]

It does come out though compared to prior runs thus giving S and SE Texas snow.

True. For us in North Texas, we need some better spacing b/w the TPV and the Baja Low. Also, I wouldn't put too much stock in the South Texas snow b/c the energy coming out of the SW is getting sheared into the base of the trough. It would be a close call. Overall, we all want the TPV to stay farther from NE.

Ejecting Southwest lows are hard to predict especially in a case where it's not a wound up cutoff low. It's opening up so it's basically a shooting gallery of disturbances. I wouldn't get excited, north, central, or SE Texas on any snow map. We are basically looking for consensus eventually if it's coming out or not first. You're right though more separation is good but not too much, because then we'll be eroding the cold air source. Always has to be just right .

I've been on this board long enough to remember that I thought we said systems coming out of that part of the country tend to not be analyzed because we lose data in Mexico, therefore we don't know until it actually crosses over into the state and starts over performing.

[bubba hotep]

It does come out though compared to prior runs thus giving S and SE Texas snow.

True. For us in North Texas, we need some better spacing b/w the TPV and the Baja Low. Also, I wouldn't put too much stock in the South Texas snow b/c the energy coming out of the SW is getting sheared into the base of the trough. It would be a close call. Overall, we all want the TPV to stay farther from NE.

Ejecting Southwest lows are hard to predict especially in a case where it's not a wound up cutoff low. It's opening up so it's basically a shooting gallery of disturbances. I wouldn't get excited, north, central, or SE Texas on any snow map. We are basically looking for consensus eventually if it's coming out or not first. You're right though more separation is good but not too much, because then we'll be eroding the cold air source. Always has to be just right .

We are getting close enough in time to start breaking down individual model runs. This is when the fun starts!

[Gotwood]

Back from a week in Crested Butte. Cold place man. Snowed every day.

On the way there, a week ago, I received calls from my buddies saying that multiple people are telling them about snow in Houston. I dont know what media outlet is advertising this like it's a given, but I warned them that it was way too far out to lock in this snow event.

Looks like a battle between the GFS and the Euro. Will the low cut off near the Baja, or not. Interesting few days to come.

https://i.imgur.com/DIl7cd9.png
https://i.imgur.com/jJhdw9f.png

Been really focussing on the MJO recently, since I believe it to be the major driver at the moment, currently expected to be in phase 1 around Jan 8th, and roll into phase 2 days after that. I think a strong phase 2 in Jan will be positive for Texas.

Dang it’s moving quickly now. Wonder what that does for the rest of winter? Is this cold plunge now the grand finale or is a reload in February still on the table?