2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#181 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Dec 09, 2008 10:43 am

wxman57 doesn't want us to have any fun
(pasted snip from KHOU local weather forum)


Timing is a bit sketchy this far out, as we still don't know what kind of airmass is coming down and when it'll be on the move. However, I'd estimate that the front may reach the Dallas area Sunday night or early Monday morning and the Houston area by Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Interesting that the Houston NWS office is totally buying the GFS solution from overnight and calling for nice warm weather all next week. I certainly don't see any major cold for us next week, the upper flow and lack of snow to the north should keep us from breaking any records. But we could see highs closer to 40 next Tue-Thu. Just enough to be miserable.



Actually, it isn't all bad if we have temps near/below 40 and dry surface air, and can keep advecting cool/dry air down while over-running precip sets up. If we can evaporatively cool to just below freezing, miss work/school, and not damage/kill my more cold sensitive plants (the orange tree, the pygmy date palm), then it would actually be a huge silver lining.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#182 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Dec 09, 2008 11:16 am

12Z GFS surface temps are 2 to 3ºC in HOU when precip is falling with happy thicknesses and sub-freezing 850 mb temps- nothing will stick- maybe mixed rain or snow, heavier precip may transport cool air down with it and be all snow and try to stick to elevated surfaces, but school isn't cancelled Thursday.

Image
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#183 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Dec 09, 2008 11:22 am

Using PSU e-Wall 3 GFS hour loop,even with slightly above freezing surface temps, looks a little more sanguine for snow lovers Northeast of Houston, over towards places like Jasper and Newton County.


But unless the GFS is too warm on surface temps by at least a couple of degrees C, and precip is a underforecast, I can't see missed school or work for anyone in Harris County.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#184 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Dec 09, 2008 2:32 pm

PSU e-Wall Euro loop out to Day 7, looks all happy and joyous, similar to Canadian, (not quite as cold, high not quite as high)then Arctic high goes left turn Clyde, and leaves front hung up near Red River.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#185 Postby ColdFusion » Tue Dec 09, 2008 3:17 pm

Might see some snow/mix tonight around Dallas.

Special Weather Statement DFW NWS

from DFW NWS


...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. BY SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH MAINLY 40S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 50S IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE.

WHILE THE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A
SHERMAN TO EASTLAND LINE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF THE LIGHT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING. UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...
MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END IN THE NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX AS WELL AS THE
TEMPLE/KILLEEN AND WACO AREAS...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
UNSEASONABLY WARM THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#186 Postby ColdFusion » Tue Dec 09, 2008 3:17 pm

Kind of surprised how rapidly it has cooled off. 39 Already in Frisco, TX (North of Dallas). Wasnt expected to crack below 40 for another few hours....
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#187 Postby iorange55 » Tue Dec 09, 2008 3:21 pm

ColdFusion wrote:Kind of surprised how rapidly it has cooled off. 39 Already in Frisco, TX (North of Dallas). Wasnt expected to crack below 40 for another few hours....




I know it's been awhile since I've seen temps drop this fast. It's 42 here. Least according to all my weather "toys" it was in the 60's about 6 hours ago.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#188 Postby ColdFusion » Tue Dec 09, 2008 3:24 pm

iorange55 wrote:I know it's been awhile since I've seen temps drop this fast. It's 42 here. Least according to all my weather "toys" it was in the 60's about 6 hours ago.


Speaking of toys, i just installed weather watcher live for my desktop. Its free, and has no ads, YAY! So I'm using it to pull realtime observations from Frisco Fire Station 3. Fluctuating between 39.3 and 39.7 at the moment. And yes, it was 60 on my commute in at 8:30.

Edit @ 2:41PM, It's reading 37.6 now. Not sure if this gauge is accurate, but if it is, we are WAY ahead of schedule. Wonder what impact if any that will have on frozen precip changes. Looks like the atmosphere might be drying up behind the front as it advances towards NOLA.

Edit @ 3:06PM. 36.6 now, (-1 degree in 25 minutes.)

Edit @ 3:29 PM 34.4 (-2.2 degrees in 23 minutes., I'm starting to think this gauge is whacked.)
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#189 Postby gboudx » Tue Dec 09, 2008 4:54 pm

I'm currently tracking a weatherbug station near my house. High was 64 this morning, currently it's 36 and still falling.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#190 Postby jasons2k » Tue Dec 09, 2008 4:58 pm

Front just pushed through here a few minutes ago...it's cooling off some but I've seen much more dramatic fronts than this....also looks like some storms still on the way as the front lifts the warmer air.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#191 Postby ColdFusion » Tue Dec 09, 2008 5:08 pm

Frisco Fire Station #3
33.7F @ 4:12 PM.
At this rate, should be below freezing by 6-7pm. Watching that patch of precip to the SW....
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#192 Postby jinftl » Tue Dec 09, 2008 5:14 pm

Talk about extremes....temps across select TX citiies:

TEXAS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
300 PM CST TUE DEC 09 2008
ABILENE 36
AMARILLO 27
AUSTIN/BERGSTM 71
BROWNSVILLE 83
CORPUS CHRISTI 84
DALHART 29
DFW AIRPORT 43
EL PASO 36
FALFURRIAS 91
FORT HOOD 59
GALVESTON 71
HOUSTON BUSH 77
LAREDO 89
LUBBOCK 31
MCALLEN 88
PORT ARTHUR 71
SAN ANTONIO 78
WACO 55
WICHITA FALLS 33
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#193 Postby southerngale » Tue Dec 09, 2008 5:44 pm

I don't usually pull an Ed and double post :lol: but just seeing these words in your local forecast down here can be exciting. lol


My new forecast:

Tonight: A chance of rain showers before 3am, then a chance of rain showers and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Wednesday: A chance of rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 43. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


Hey, there's a chance!! Image
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#194 Postby jasons2k » Tue Dec 09, 2008 6:06 pm

Doesn't mention that for me, but if you click 5 miles to my NW just over the freeway, it does.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#195 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Dec 09, 2008 6:46 pm

Me too Jason. I guess it will end at the highway.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#196 Postby iorange55 » Tue Dec 09, 2008 7:52 pm

Sleeting here in Dallas it was coming down pretty hard.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#197 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Dec 09, 2008 8:08 pm

iorange55 wrote:Sleeting here in Dallas it was coming down pretty hard.

same here, except light for the moment. Is more supposed to develop later, cuz i think thats what the forecast said earlier.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#198 Postby iorange55 » Tue Dec 09, 2008 8:10 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
iorange55 wrote:Sleeting here in Dallas it was coming down pretty hard.

same here, except light for the moment. Is more supposed to develop later, cuz i think thats what the forecast said earlier.




I'm not sure that's what they said, but looking at the radar it doesn't look like much after this. Hopefully more will develop or come up from the southwest.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#199 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Dec 09, 2008 8:12 pm

iorange55 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
iorange55 wrote:Sleeting here in Dallas it was coming down pretty hard.

same here, except light for the moment. Is more supposed to develop later, cuz i think thats what the forecast said earlier.




I'm not sure that's what they said, but looking at the radar it doesn't look like much after this. Hopefully more will develop or come up from the southwest.

well the forecast from 4 pm says that its supposed to keep going till early morning, so who knows
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#200 Postby iorange55 » Tue Dec 09, 2008 8:30 pm

It's snowing pretty hard here. REAL BIG FLAKES. i'm trying to get video, have bad lighting though.
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