The Official 2009-2010 Denver winter weather thread

[Dencolo]

I did both Keystone and A-basin this weekend. Surprising decent and not too crowded for just having a couple of runs open each.

Anyway, GFS is trying to spit out a few inches of snow for us by Sunday. It was a warm one this weekend!

[Dencolo]

GFS really turned around in the 18z run. Now showing the potential for decent snow this weekend....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_126l.gif

[VoodooCadillac]

The weather guys seem to be getting a bit more bullish for this weekend. Looks like snow Friday-Sunday. Not continuous, but a couple of episodes.

[SCMedic]

The Saturday night/Sunday slot looks like 4-6" isn't out of the question.

[PTPatrick]

We now have a NWS weather station at City Park...to measure the real Denver weather. Dont know why we cant use it as the official now but....

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_13767715

[Dencolo]

Hmm, it's an official weather station, but not THE official weather station for Denver. Would be more representative of the weather in and around the Metro area.

Anyway, check out the latest HWO from the Denver NWS. Could be an interesting weekend.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS TURN OUT TO BE
CORRECT...THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AND THE ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE ON SUNDAY.

[PTPatrick]

Yup. Its official. At least now they can get a really good side by side comparison of the City park and the DIA sites and get an better idea of the differences...not that they dont already have a lot of information in that area. Somewhere back in the early part of this thread a posted a link to a website that shows the differences between central denver and DIA based on the historic records we already have. One sucky thing is I am not sure if the new device will measure snow. I always thought automated snow measurements werent to accurate but who knows. Either way, nice to have.

One thing I notced recently is that it used to be when you clicked on aurora near Buckly on the NWS maps, it would give current conditions for Buckly...not they arent doing that and its giving DIA instead. It still gives Broomfield APT and Centennial APT when you click those areas. Makes me wonder if now when I click on my hood I will current conditions for city park...thats about 15 blocks from me.

[Dencolo]

00z NAM is spitting out a ton of QPF (up to 2") over the next 84 hrs for the area near Denver. Let's see what the GFS says....

[PTPatrick]

not quite as much on the 0z GFS as nam but close... Some of the QPF on both would fall in as rain or quickly mellting snow later tomorrow early saturday. From both we would might get a quick couple inches with changeover late friday into saturday morning, but that could melt saturday with clearer skies in the morning...GFS brings moisture back quickly on saturday evening, a little faster than NAM and both drop over an inch in that period when it will be cold enough for all snow. r if that panned out could get well into 8-10 inches i think. We will just have to see how it pans out. I love snow at thanksgiving but unfortunately it would probably all melt by then

[VoodooCadillac]

Winter Storm Watch has been hoisted for Fort Collins (Larimer County) - for 6-12 inches Saturday mid-day through Sunday afternoon.

[SCMedic]

Winter Storm Watch has been hoisted for Fort Collins (Larimer County) - for 6-12 inches Saturday mid-day through Sunday afternoon.

Hey there guy who only cares about himself....


Winter Storm Watch has been issue for the entire front range corridor and foothills, not just Fort Collins.... THAT would be a weird storm. lol

Model runs are getting interesting, and more consistant. Saturday evening through Sunday evening could be fun! I was planning to go to A-basin again this weekend, but it's looking like this second storm is going to be another upslope setup and 4" or less is forecast for the mountains in that area. Yay for us. Boo for snowboarding.

[PTPatrick]

12z GFS and NAM have comes back off the higher QPF just a bit...not sure why, as the track doesnt look all that different. Etiehr way NAM showing just under and inch for the area with GFS showing right at an inch. THat would still probably be enough for a 6-12 inches storm for most of the metro, but not epic to say the least. 12z Canadian is very close to the GFS with perhaps a hair over an inch of QPF. With GFS and and CMC the heaviest snow would be predawn sunday into lunch time, wich lighter accumulation later. With NAM its a little slow with the heaviest coming in just after breakfast and lingering toward dinner. All of the above cut it off by dawn Monday. Should be a fun one. Looks like a wetter snow as even the NAM shows it just getting cold enough for now around midnight saturday, so epic fluff snow accums will probably be limited to the foothills I would think.

I might add that even with just a foot, it could cause more headaches than our 2 day storm 2 weeks ago. That never made the roads too bad it was mostly a steady moderate snow and much fell during daylight hours. If this sets up a nice blanket overnight saturday we may not see as much melting on the roads and such on sunday.

[Dencolo]

I'm seeing about 1.25" of precip for the Denver area. Looking at GFS forecasted temps, almost all would be snow. Exceptions are later on today and perhaps a few hours on Saturday. And a winter storm watch is now in affect. Sounds like a decent little storm...

Will be interesting to see how the roads are on Sunday. I agree, it should be worse than last time.

[PTPatrick]

Just for heck of it Hack-U-Weather is calling for couple inches tomorrow, 3-6 overnight saturday, 3-6 more sunday and still some snow sunday evening without accumulation amts listed.

[PTPatrick]

so much for it being warm enough for melting...32 and mod to heavy gruapel/snow right now in downtown. Just heard thunder...Forecast disc now says 1-5 tonight in the metro. I imagine tomorrow should be cloudy enough to ward off much melting...and highs no longer look like 40s. Disc now says 7-12 in the urband corridor. GFS would def come closer to the foot. The blanket we have tonight should help things as long as it doesnt get too warm tomorrow between systems.


EDIT: as of 5:30 Has changed completely to snow instead of graupel...now actually coming down quite nicely with some big flakes. Doubt it will last more than a couple hours based on radar. FT Collins cleared out already. We will be hard pressed to get more than 2 inches here unless the band stallls.

[Dencolo]

Much of what has fallen yesterday has melted. Looks like the bigger of the two storms is going to arrive this afternoon. Expecting about 6"-12".

[Dencolo]

Well as much as the first system petered out, it looks like this next one has some decent power behind it. Now it looks like 10"-18"! Keep in mind, last year Denver did not have a snowstorm of greater than 3" until very late in the season. It was either March or April. This looks to be our 2nd big one this year!

Tonight: Snow. Low around 25. North northeast wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow. High near 31. North wind between 5 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

[VoodooCadillac]

My wife and I bought snowshoes today - hope we're not jinxing it!

[Dencolo]

My wife and I bought snowshoes today - hope we're not jinxing it!

You'll enjoy them. By the way things are going so far, I don't think you'll be jinxing anything.

Also, snow is starting to come down pretty decently now on the SW side. Not sticking yet, but that should change soon.

[PTPatrick]

coming down steady here in downtown for about the past hour. Good dusting already but nothing to write home about. Not sticking to concrete yet. the 18z GFS was not altogether as impressive as the NAM was this go round. GFS had just under and inch for the event, nam closer to 1.25. We'll see how it shakes out. Of course above 6000 ft even and inch of QPF can still be 20 inches while in downtown 10 is probably the most I am looking for out of this one. Anything more will be a pleasant surprise.

Clicking around the point forecast PUE and DEN didnt coordinate the Palmer divide locations very well. Pueblo has less than 2 inches tonight for a place 1 few mile away from where Denver has 4-8. I realize orographics are better for the northern urban coridor and COS will likely be downsloped a bit...BUT 1 have trouble beliveing 8 inches for Castle Rock and 1 for Black forest and monument.