Mid Atlantic Winter Storms 2009-2010 updated

[xironman]

The RUC seems to show mixing near DC this afternoon. But I am not sure how useful that model is for 850's.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

The biggest factor impacting snow accumulations will be the storm`s track. If the storm takes a more eastern track, the highest snowfall totals will be found closer to the coast. A track closer to the coast and farther north along the coast would spread the heaviest snow farther inland with a better chance of rain mixing in along the Interstate 95 corridor and into southeastern Virginia and southern Maryland.

The storm right now is pushing north from the Gulf of Mexico into southern Mississippi and Alabama as another low scoots into western Nebraska. The main low will continue to move east along the Gulf Coast today and then jog up the Atlantic Coast tonight and Saturday as it follows the southwest to north-northeast-oriented jet stream

The Weather Bug: http://tinyurl.com/ydwfbt4

Please, please mixing rain. Still all quiet on the DC area front.

WLD

[angelwing]

Nothing here in Wrightstown, NJ yet...just checked the radar for home and it looks like it's about to hit Blue Bell. Looks like it might be snowing already in Philly.

[Squarethecircle]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ028-031-042-
052>057-501-502-WVZ050>053-503-504-052215-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.100205T1500Z-100207T0300Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-
FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...
LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN...EMORYVILLE...HARTMANSVILLE...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
904 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
SATURDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 28 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN MID-MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING FROM SUNSET THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE...PRODUCING
NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CONDITIONS IN THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE
OF THE STORM OF 19 DECEMBER. PLAN FOR SUBSTANTIAL DISRUPTIONS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

$$

KRAMAR

The snow is already falling here.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

IT HAS BEGUN!

WLD

[lester]

NWS updated its snowfall totals to....


.....



.....



20-30"+

[lester]

Nothing here in Wrightstown, NJ yet...just checked the radar for home and it looks like it's about to hit Blue Bell. Looks like it might be snowing already in Philly.

That's probably not hitting the ground yet.

[Squarethecircle]

Snow isn't sticking to the road surface yet, but it's still snowing relatively lightly. Here's the latest NWS BalWash WS warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1154 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-
036>040-042-050>057-501-502-WVZ050>055-501>504-060100-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-100207T0300Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-
CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...
WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...
BAYARD...PETERSBURG...EMORYVILLE...HARTMANSVILLE...KEYSER...
FORT ASHBY
1154 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
SATURDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 30 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
OCCURRING FROM SUNSET THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MOST
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE-QUARTER MILE
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN HEAVY SNOW. STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE SNOW ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO WELL BELOW ONE-QUARTER
MILE...PRODUCING NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH LATE TODAY. GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 MPH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RECORD
SNOWFALL FOR THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METROPOLITAN AREAS.
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS AND LIFE-THREATENING. HELP YOUR LOCAL AND STATE
GOVERNMENT FIRST RESPONDERS AND TRANSPORTATION AGENCIES BY STAYING
OFF THE ROADS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COASTLINE.

&&

$$

KRAMAR

Wow!

Overnight for my location:

Tonight: Snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 27. Blustery, with a northeast wind between 13 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

[angelwing]

Nothing here in Wrightstown, NJ yet...just checked the radar for home and it looks like it's about to hit Blue Bell. Looks like it might be snowing already in Philly.

That's probably not hitting the ground yet.

Yeah it's not, called my boss she said nothing yet just cloudy.
Nothing here yet either.

[tomboudreau]

Snowing impressively here in Pittsburgh. Didn't even start as flurries...just went to straight light to occasion moderate snow. NWS Pittsburgh has upped their totals for my area for 1 to 3 inches today...6 to 10 inches tonight...and additional 1 to 3 inches tomorrow. SPC has Pittsburgh area marked in a mesoscale discussion for snowfall rates of 1" per hour this afternoon. Temp has dropped from 38 to 33 degrees since the snow started.

[Squarethecircle]

Still only getting wet roads here. I think Friday might end up on the low side of the prediction here (2-4 inches), but it's getting colder, so it should start to stick relatively soon.

[brunota2003]

Two forecasts, my grandma lives in Fluvanna County, Va (the county looks like a square, east of the county Charlottesville is in:

This Afternoon: Snow before 4pm, then snow and sleet. High near 32. East wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Tonight: Sleet. Low around 29. Northeast wind between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow. High near 31. North wind between 13 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

They are calling for a possible total accumulation of 12 to 18 inches by the time it is said and done (per the WSW text).

The next forecast is for a friend of mine who lives just outside of Bel Air, MD...

This Afternoon: Snow. High near 33. East wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Blustery, with a east wind 10 to 13 mph increasing to between 18 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow and areas of blowing snow. High near 30. Blustery, with a north wind between 17 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

What a difference! Her WSW text says 20 to 30+ inches! She better take lots of pictures too.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Hahaha. I'm going to have to figure out the picture thing. Nice to see the contributions to this thread and updates. I'm very curious about the waves of "bands" of snow I keep hearing about and near white out when they occur. Hmmm. Not sticking yet here either but temps should fall by 4 p.m. or so.

[Squarethecircle]

The snow is now starting to stick to isolated parts of the pavement and some driveways, but most of the driving surface is still bare.

[Stephanie]

Nothing in Atlantic City yet either, though the storm looks like it's just about crossed the Delaware Bay. Hopefully, I'll be leaving within the hour.

I had the feeling like I was driving into the lion's den on the way to work, here in AC. At one time, I only counted 3 cars going eastbound. Pretty eerie.

[Squarethecircle]

Now the entire roadway has snow on it, and it's starting to come down pretty heavily. Does anyone know the record snowfall in February for DC/BAL, or where I could find it?

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Top 15 Snowstorms on record in Washington, DC
Washington, DC (1885-2000) [edit: oops, what happened 2000 to 2009, hmm?]

1 January 27-28, 1922 ... 28 inches
2 February 11-13, 1899 ... 20.5 inches
3 February 18-19, 1979 ... 18.7 inches
4 January 6-8, 1996 ... 17.1 inches
5 February 15-18, 2003 ... 16.7 inches
6 February 11-12, 1983 ...16.6 inches
7 February 15-16, 1958 ... 14.4 inches
8 February 7, 1936 ... 14.4 inches
9 February 16-18, 1900 ... 14.3 inches
10 January 29-30, 1966 ... 13.8 inches
11 February 8, 1899 ... 13.7 inches
12 February 2-4, 1886 ... 12.4 inches
13 December 17, 1932 ... 12.0 inches
14 March 27-28, 1891 ... 12.0 inches
15 November 11, 1987 ... 11.5 inches*
Addendum: December 2009 Accumulation Previous Record
16. Washington, D.C. (Reagan) 16.6 inches 16.2 inches - 1962

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/snohist.htm

Square the Circle: Here is a nice link to NWS in Sterling VA, do you know about it? http://tinyurl.com/yg6qy6h

[Squarethecircle]

Thanks for the info and the link!

Looks like we might beat that 1899 storm. Now I know what they meant by "expected to produce record snowfall".

[lester]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

MDZ014-017-018-060415-
/O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.100206T0300Z-100207T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KLWX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-100206T0300Z/
ANNE ARUNDEL-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANNAPOLIS...ST MARYS CITY
306 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
BLIZZARD WARNING...IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO
30 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 30 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OCCURRING FROM SUNSET THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE-QUARTER
MILE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN HEAVY SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

* WINDS...EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RECORD
SNOWFALL FOR THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METROPOLITAN AREAS.
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS AND LIFE-THREATENING. HELP YOUR LOCAL AND STATE
GOVERNMENT FIRST RESPONDERS AND TRANSPORTATION AGENCIES BY
STAYING OFF THE ROADS.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS.


Watch out WLD/STC...they might expand it to your area

[lester]

Now the entire roadway has snow on it, and it's starting to come down pretty heavily. Does anyone know the record snowfall in February for DC/BAL, or where I could find it?

#1 at BWI was 28.2" in 2003

December 19th is in 7th place