Florida winter thread 2010-11

[gatorcane]

Models trending towards another arctic blast for florida in the 168 to 192 hour timeframe. With temps below normal for most of this week, at least here in south Florida, looks like most of this month is going to be below normal, and in some cases much below normal.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Models trending towards another arctic blast for florida in the 168 to 192 hour timeframe. With temps below normal for most of this week, at least here in south Florida, looks like most of this month is going to be below normal, and in some cases much below normal.

love it..

[NDG]

The good thing is that the GFS & Euro's ensembles do not show the next arctic blast to dig down as much as the last arctic blast. But the way things are looking like we could be dealing with at least a light freeze for central FL once again.
The next couple of days the models should give a better idea of how cold it will get.

[Patrick99]

Yeah, from what I can glean from the discussions, this might be a more "garden-variety" Arctic front.

Still, I would prefer that the weather stay like this. I'm already tired of Arctic fronts. We've already had two intrusions. Some years we don't get two ALL WINTER. I know a cold December is not unheard of, though - I remember some years as a kid when much of December was pretty chilly.

What's the long-range outlook? I seem to recall that in prior years featuring chilly Decembers, many times January was above normal. I have no interest in seeing a repeat of January 2010 or Christmas 1989. I wouldn't think that would happen again, but who knows with the weather these days.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, from what I can glean from the discussions, this might be a more "garden-variety" Arctic front.

Still, I would prefer that the weather stay like this. I'm already tired of Arctic fronts. We've already had two intrusions. Some years we don't get two ALL WINTER. I know a cold December is not unheard of, though - I remember some years as a kid when much of December was pretty chilly.

What's the long-range outlook? I seem to recall that in prior years featuring chilly Decembers, many times January was above normal. I have no interest in seeing a repeat of January 2010 or Christmas 1989. I wouldn't think that would happen again, but who knows with the weather these days.

Many long term experts, as well as long term models predict a warmer Jan-Feb time frame. December was their wild card for being the 'winter' in the south. But we all know anything long ways out is easily subject to change.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think it all depends on that persistent -NAO.

[NDG]

I think it all depends on that persistent -NAO.

Probably more of a -AO in combination of a -NAO.
But as some have mentioned already, things should be milder in Jan & Feb as forecasted by long range models that the AO will go positive, hopefully

Looking to early next week, models have trended colder lately, so at least a light freeze for central FL is very likely now, mod-hard freeze for the usual colder spots of C FL. Parts of interior S FL could once again be threaten by a light freeze, IMO.

[HURAKAN]

GFS

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looks cold once again. Amazing weather all over the country. Not acting like La Nina. Especially in California. I think Jan. will start on a up swing of temp. Will it last?

[NDG]

TX is the only state that has benefited from any La Nina pattern there is, while most of the eastern US is under a deep freeze because of the negative AO & NAO the negative PNA keeps a warm ridge over them most of the time witht the cold core of any cold air going to their east.

[Portastorm]

TX is the only state that has benefited from any La Nina pattern there is, while most of the eastern US is under a deep freeze because of the negative AO & NAO the negative PNA keeps a warm ridge over them most of the time witht the cold core of any cold air going to their east.

While I understand your argument about being warm and dry a "good thing" ... I wouldn't say we have benefited. There's this thing called drought which is growing worse by the day over to your left.

I'd be happy to trade you Floridians some warm and dry for a little rainfall?!

[psyclone]

take a look at the US drought monitor map. Florida's not exactly sitting pretty. I'd take warm and dry over cold and dry anyday. we're getting hosed from all directions.

[HURAKAN]

GFS

[Patrick99]

So it looks like we get a brief shot Sunday/Monday/Tuesday and then that's it through the later portion of the forecast period. I can deal with that.

It'll be interesting to see if the warmer January sets up.

[Patrick99]

What a nice Christmas Day. Beach-worthy, even.

Do not want this Arctic air, even if it's just for a couple days. Do not want.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS MOS low temperature output for Orlando (MCO) with this upcoming cold snap:

MON MORNING = 27F
TUES MORNING = 28F
WED MORNING = 33F

If these numbers played out exactly, then the Orlando freeze tally for the month of December would raise to 6.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Can anyone in the Jacksonville area confirm this report of light snow?



Well nevermind, it looks like the local news confirmed it for me: http://www.news4jax.com/weather/26277858/detail.html

That's awesome that parts of the sunshine state actually saw some flakes from this!


Youtube videos..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_lKltX0DoM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhYSf76o418
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSxCEORvjFg

[srainhoutx]

Can anyone in the Jacksonville area confirm this report of light snow?



Well nevermind, it looks like the local news confirmed it for me: http://www.news4jax.com/weather/26277858/detail.html

That's awesome that parts of the sunshine state actually saw some flakes from this!

Yeah, I was about to confirm that for you. Powerful dynamic storm to be sure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the latest HRRR run is correct, then there may be more reports of mixed precipitation across the state of FL today.

At 8pm tonight, the HRRR is still showing scattered light showers across the area (including "gulf effect" along the west coast), and with surface and upper level temperatures continuing to drop, there is a good possibility that some of this may be in the form of sleet/snow instead of just rain:

8pm Composite reflectivity:
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... fc_f15.png

8pm Surface temperature:
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... 2m_f15.png

8pm 850mb temperature:
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... 50_f15.png

8pm 925mb temperature:
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... 25_f15.png

Doesn't look like a widespread event or a big deal, but if the HRRR is correct, then I certainly wouldn't be surprised to hear about isolated wintery-type precipitation reports; even down into central FL.

[HURAKAN]

beautiful!!