Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA

[R-Dub]

According to NWS we (Everett northward) could be under another snow advisory tonight. Outflow not weaking now like previously forecasted.

Been out on the roads, compact snow and ice, kids sleding everywhere! A few cars in ditches too.

[W13]

Tonight, I think that we will see some more snow. Showers are still going to be around, even likely, and with modified arctic air in most places north of tacoma, everyone should have a chance at at least a few snow showers tonight.

[R-Dub]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 935 AM PST SAT JAN 8 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE SENDING AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH SUNDAY ALLOWING SHOWERS TO DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OUT OF THE FRASER RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON...KEEPING THE AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW ABOUT 100 NM WEST OF THE COAST WILL REMAIN PLANTED THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH SUNDAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AROUND THE ENTIRE S HALF OF THE LOW HEADING TOWARD THE OREGON COAST AND NE INTO WESTERN WA. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE BEING PICKED UP OFFSHORE...PROBABLY A PRODUCT OF THE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE LOWER AIR MASS DUE WARMER OCEAN TEMPERATURES. WITH A COOLER AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WA WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW HANGING TOUGH OFFSHORE AS WELL AND A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING DOWN OVER B.C. THE NE OUTFLOW THROUGH THE FRASER RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE. BLI-YWL GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED FROM 19 MB DOWN TO 12 MB BUT THE MODELS PUSH THE GRADIENT BACK UP TO 14-15 MB TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE AREAS BEING AFFECTED BY THE OUTFLOW..I.E. N COAST...STRAIT OF JDF...AND SAN JUANS. EXPECT LESS SNOW TO ACCUMULATE OVER WHATCOM COUNTY MAINLY DUE TO THE NE WINDS BUT WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND...BLOWING...AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL LET THE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR HOOD CANAL AND EVERETT EXPIRE. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER VORT MAX SLIDING N ACROSS THE AREA SO DEPENDING UPON WHAT THE MM5 SHOW FOR QPF/SNOW MAY END UP PUTTING UP ANOTHER SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HOOD CANAL AREA AND EVERETT OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENT SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF LATER SUNDAY WHEN THE MAIN LOW BEGINS HEADING S. THE AIR MASS OVERALL WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BUT THE FRASER OUTFLOW WILL FINALLY WEAKEN AND THE SHOWER THREAT WILL TAPER OFF. NW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES MONDAY AS THE OLD LOW DEPARTS. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE NEXT WAVE DOWN ON TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE DRY NW FLOW AFTER TUESDAY. KAM &&

[cloud9]

Hi everyone, We got about an inch of snow last night but it was about 33*f so it was kind of melting until it froze this morning. Right now it looks like the clouds are thickening, like we may have another shot of snow. It's warmed up to 35*f now so hopefully it will come down as snow. Does anyone know what happened to snow_wizzard? hope everyones happy

[TT-SEA]

The sun is trying to make an appearance in Bellevue, Renton, Kent, Tacoma, Puyallup and points south.

The sun should push temperatures up into the 40's down there.

[TT-SEA]

Already 40 degrees in Renton and 38 at Sea-Tac.

Should be a fairly normal January afternoon pushing into the mid-40's with sun breaks.

[AnthonyC]

TT-SEA,

I'm getting tired of your negativity. Please stop...Seattle rarely gets snow, let us enjoy it for the moment. And we're not done with the snow just yet. The current surface gradient between Seattle and Bellingham is 12mb. Last night, it was at 19mb. Looks like the snow line was at Lynnwood. Latest forecasts suggest the gradient will increase to possibly 20mb later this evening and overnight. With another deformation band travelling up from the south, I wouldn't be surprised if we had a repeat of last night. Still, it's almost impossible to have a repeat snow event in the lowlands...so I won't get my hopes up too high. But at least the snow threat isn't completely gone. Still very interesting for Tuesday/Wednesday. Latest models drag that arctic front a little further south and west. Still doesn't encompass all of Western Washington, but it clips the north sound and all of Eastern Washington. For now, all meteorologists are playing conservative which is probably a smart move. Still have an inch or so of snow on the ground up here in Mukilteo. Possibly another inch or two tonight?! That would be awesome!!

Anthony

[R-Dub]

Gotten pretty dark here in the last 15 MIN, looks like another round! Temp 32.8 degrees

[R-Dub]

Lets not forget winter is not over here after next week! PNA to go strong positive, but then start dropping back to 0 quickly, just like it has all winter. AO looks to be negitive also. We have had some brutal years here in Febuary!

[krysof]

it will be hard for PNA to go near zero after being positive because many models are underestimating the cold air on the 15th and after. The pna might trend towards zero because after the cold blast, temperatures will moderate a bit in the east, which means a little colder in the west, then it shows a bitterly cold blast of air for the east. Hang on east, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

[TT-SEA]

Not fair...

Renton is in Western Washington. So is Bellevue... and Puyallup.

The sun is coming out in those locations. That is fact. It is warming into the 40's.

How can reporting the facts be negative?? Because you don't like the facts???

Three days ago everyone was saying a foot of snow in Seattle was likely. Where most people live... nothing fell. No snow on the ground... the sun is coming out... in the 40's. I would say that is a bust.

So should I just report the facts you like?? I like scientific facts... whether it be good or bad. I wanted a foot snow like everyone else. It did not happen and it is not going to happen.

[TT-SEA]

Now there is bright sunshine in Renton on the 405 and in Bellevue on the I-90.

Seriously.

W13 - you had the sun break out at your house. What is the temp now?

[krysof]

well, here in the east, I have had 3 maybe 4 busts. Only a couple inches of snow. One storm was supposed to give a blizzard for us with over a foot of snow, but it was too far offshore and we got nothing. Another coastal storm was supposed to hit us the day after Christmas, but again it was too far offshore and that is the time we got 2 inches of snow but only from a weak disturbance that came out of Canada. Than the storm was supposed to give us snow or ice on Wednesday night and Thursday morning but temperatures were too warm for snow or ice and this storm right now could of given us some ice but just rain fell. You have no idea how angry I am.

[TT-SEA]

I am angry too... but I will not ignore the actual weather. I need to be objective.

[R-Dub]

HA HA TT........ you are more pessimistic then Rich Marriot!

cooled back to 32.2 degrees
Dewpoint 32.0

Looks like snow will start falling anytime here.

[AnthonyC]

Walter Kelly...the meteorologist of extremes. On Thursday night, he was calling for 6+ inches of snow in the downtown metro area and a severe arctic blast all the way through next week. Last night, he said maybe a little dusting for dowtown and a little more north of Everett and had high temperatures back up to almost 50 F by Wednesday of next week. Pretty extreme forecaster!! Goes to show he has no idea what's going on with the weather...not a true meteorologist.

Anthony

[AnthonyC]

Unfortunately, that main band of precipitation moved to the west, missing major cities such as Tacoma, Seattle and Everett. I think it's gonna miss you R-Dub. We have a few snow flurries, but nothing more. Hopefully there's more tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Good call Anthony. Precip. went to the west. R-Dub will miss out. Major sun breaks across the Seattle metro now. Actually a nice day.

Walter Kelley is very extreme. I totally agree.

Some of you guys are extreme and not very objective as well. You only see what you want to see.

[R-Dub]

Yeah, I can't believe they bit off on that one computer model that showed the ridge by monday. Yet all the other models have shown cool to cold next week. Now they don't want to change there forecast back because that will really make them look bad!
They would be better off with a forecast of this.....
Monday-Fri
Mostly sunny with a 100% chance of snow and rain with a temp of 25-55 degrees. Wind South/west/east/north 5-70MPH

[TT-SEA]

3 days ago... the forecasted high for Seattle for Saturday (that is today) was 30 degrees with snow likely.

It is currently 40 degrees and rising quickly with partly sunny skies in Seattle.

Tell me why they should change the forecast dramatically to make it colder given today's weather??

Objectivity guys.