Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days

[sertorius]

Good Morning Everybody!! I know everyone is focused on the East Coast, but I thought I'd still throw something out there for the central plains!!!

This weekend: Rain today-warm tomorrow. This will put us about 4 inches above normal for the year so far-amazing-all that moisture and only 5 inches of snow to show for it!! Forecasters calling for a snow winter really had a fine forecast-how could anyone know the timing of the moisture and cold air would be so horrendous-can't fault them for the forecast as we have had some intense cold as well.

Next WeeK: The medium range models: EURO, GFS, and MRF are all hinting at the possibility of something next week-it does seem it will be colder next week beginning around Tuesday than this week was. 2 things: 1. Models were hinting at the same thing for this weekend as late as Monday-so there is much change comming with every run. 2. The ridge looks to set up over the West Coast and that is not a good place for us to get real cold air-if it were to set up off the coast, we would be in better shape. I really think Kansas City/Lawrence are going to be batteling warm air issues just like this past week. I would not be surprised if by Monday, the models begin to show warmer temps. for this area than they currently are showing. Time will tell.

Have a great day and folks in the cnetral plains need to keep an eye out for next week-maybe things can finall come together. I will say this: with all this moisture this early in the year-I bet we have one hot dry summer here!!!!

[sertorius]

What a Spring like day here in Lawrence-temp. is still at 57 degrees, but our winds are now shifting to the North West-also, it is about 25 degrees colder to our North, so more Feb. like temps. may be spilling in later. The GFS, EURO and GEM, as has been alluded to in another thread, depicts a pretty good cold snap for the central plains later this week-our average high is 47 right now, so any highs in the lower 30's or upper 20's would be a significant cold shot. 2 questions: 1. Will this actually hold true-models showed this last week but it was pretty wimpy. Also, I wonder if the ridgs is not setting up too far east for this area and thus most of the cold shifts east. 2. Will we have any precip with this??? The GFS says no this week, but wonder of wonders shows two chances next week-where have we seen this before??? The EURO does show some possibilities-time will tell-but if the models verify, from about Wed. thru at least the following Wed. it is time to get back out thew winter coats for Lawrence/Kansas City-but can we get our sleds out???

[frankthetank]

I've been watching the models with that cold air...The Euro wants to park it right over my head...not a good spot!(although i feel that its not going to be much off from our normal highs).

3 Sundays in a row (maybe 4...i'll have to check) we have had significant precip in the area...talk about a pattern that doesn't want to change!

[sertorius]

Good Morning!!! My current temp. is 35 degress under cloudy skies-all the moisture should stay east and south (and a some up in Nebraska) of us today. Will be interesting to see if we hit 51 today-I think we will top out around 47 which is exactly normal for this time of year-depends on how long the cloud cover hangs on.

This week: Tomorrow night may offer something-the 0z GFS hints at a little precip with the temps. hovering around freezing-the NAM says no but worth watching. This week will be much colder than last week with temps. running some 5-10 degrees below normal-however, must be noted that even the EURO is beginning to back off on this a bit so maybe have highs around 38-40 and not mid 30's. Looks to warm up a bit by the weekend but nothing like this weekend as it stands right now.

Further down the road: The EURO has been showing for two days now a pretty significant cold shot for early next week-by next Wed. we could be almost 20 degrees below normal for highs-also, the 0z EURO, GFS, and MRF all three show the possibility of a storm next Sunday/Monday. The EURO is very aggressive with the cold next week. Couple of things: For the past 2 weeks we have seen this solution for this area only to see it weaken as the time grows closer. There is model agreement on this and if that vortex does indeed hit the Great Lakes, we could see some significant cold air. 2. The precip: I would not be surprised at all to see this get suppresed south as the week continues.

All in all, it looks like a colder 2 weeks comming up-How cold remains to be seen and again, as this winter has been for the whole duration we are watching for something 7 days away-can we finally get something significant-this is truly our last best shot as depicted today. We are 5 inches above normal precip wise and only have 5 inches of snow to show for it-maybe this time things will come together. Following the models the next 7 days will be maddening for sure!!!

[sertorius]

I just have to post this. To give one an idea on how boring this winter has been for this area: Since I'm off today for the holiday and I'm spending the day preping my classes for the next two weeks I am flipping to the weather boards for relief-however, not to watch for a storm (the 12Z GFS is already backing off of next week's events-shocking I know!!!) but to see if our local forecast high of 51 busts today or not. I'm actually spending time looking at temps. around the area to see if we will reach 51-how bad and bland can a winter be??? How much of an idiot can one be???? By the way-still cloudy and 37 here but the winds have switched to the south east-the 40's are approaching fast-already to Emporia Kansas-thrilling stuff aint it?????

[sertorius]

Just a quick note: the 12Z Euro pushes some very cold air (relative to the time of the year) down thru this area beginning next Sunday-in all honestly, it is the coldest looking EURO for here since the last arctic front in mid Jan. One thing though: the model has backed off the cold for this week-so we may see the same in future runs. According to the 12Z and the 0Z as well, the ridge sets up further west which allows the cold air to spill this far West. Time will tell, but if this verifies, next week looks to be quite cold here esp. considering our average high is getting close to 50. Way to early to even think about precip. from this. By the way: my temp. as of 3:30 is 40 degrees-we didn't hit 51 today!!! How boring can my weather be when i am excited about 40 and clouds???? By the way: the 12Z Nam is showing a possibility of some precip. Wed.-the 12Z GFS brings this in on Tuesday-prob. be lite rain, but the profiles are close-maybe I'll get lucky!!!!

[frankthetank]

Wow...with fresh snowcover(all 2.8inches of it) we got to 33F with mostly sun all day(AFD was off quite a bit having us in clouds for most of the day)...Talk about a snowline..heres the graphic....



The Euro is seems to imply what you said in a previous post about it moving the core of the cold east...which if my mind serves me correctly had this shot over my head!!! although the 168hr is now showing another reload of chill coming down the plains for early next week...

Whole country(minus Florida) looks pretty chilly from what i can tell...

[sertorius]

Frank:

Per the 12Z EURO today, next week looks down right fridgid for the cnetral plains and points east-esp. considering my average high is now 47 degrees!! I don't nec. buy this solution considering the EURO has shown this solution for the past two weeks and then 4 days before, begins to weaken it-I still look for this to give me a glancing blow then head east. I would like one more week of true winter before Spring-I have about 5 months of 80's-100's staring me in the face!!!!! (And as a note, with all the moisture we have seen so far this year, it will be one heck of a dry and hot and windy summer here!!!)

[sertorius]

Good Morning!! In between classes, so i thought I'd jot down a couple of things.

Nice day today-the sun is trying to come out and if that happens, our temps. will realy bounce.


Wed-Friday:-Our temps. will cool back off to just below normal-upper 30's for the period. Will be interesting to watch the models the next 24 hours-the 12Z NAM has brought the precip. much further North-there is actually pretty good band about 100 miles south of me-the GFS is close as well-however, both the UKMET and EURO have this pretty far south. We shall see-the possibility is there however slight. I'm betting it staying south-while we can get good storms in split flow patterns, it is usually not the case-we are usually in the split!!

Next Week: Still looks to turn quite cold here for next week-The 0Z EURO continued the cold invasion-prob. won't last thru next weekend, but we could have 4-5 days of below to well below temps. Precip. is being hinted at by the EURO and MRF, but way early. Well, have a great day!!!

[frankthetank]

Do you do any analoging? I was looking @ 2001 as a possible year and it showed March was pretty lame--with below normals temps...and around 8inches of snow...chilly in KS too



any other winters come to mind?

[frankthetank]

looking @ THE maps a little more...Feb 2001 was quite a bit of a change from this month so far...up here atleast...

[sertorius]

Frank:

I have alittle bit, but look mostly at Dec-Feb. and I lost all my notes!!! It has been a while since we have had an active March-2002 was active for about the first 4 days then we pretty much hit Spring. Next week looks cold, but not real stormy-we shall see-I have to face the music: this has been one bland winter here!!!

[sertorius]

Have to start the trek home but just thought it was interesting that the 18Z NAM is even bringing the precip. tomorrow further North-I'm actually in a good band for a couple of hours-could be something to watch-prob. not, but possibly. It does not seem the cold air comming down is that strong tonight so maybe it won't suppress the low too much. Also, the 12Z GFS is just crazy-totally different than 12Z EURO-12Z GFS has me in the 50's next Tuesday-EURO in the 30's!! The 12Z GFS basically says no major cold out break next week untill Thursday or Friday. Have a great afternoon!!!

[sertorius]

Interesting: Both the 18Z NAM and GFS give this area a chance at some precip. tomorrow night-the soundings are really close-surface at 32 with the rest of the colum below freezing-who knows-I'm still skeptical but it will be interesting to see the 0z runs of these two as well as the RUC-there is precip. already breaking out to the south and north of me as well as some developing in the south west-I guess may be reason to watch!!

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

I totally agree this distrubance is indeed something to keep an eye on, and to watch future model runs as they come out. If the 00UTC and 06 UTC models especially the NAM stay the same or strengthen the system more then I think there's a chance of a surprise minor winter storm, which is not out of the oridanary. Keep watching. Here's my current Accumulations map through Thursday.

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

I think that overall St. Louis, MO might get a little bit more snow then you due to being a bit farther south, but I'm not going to brand this a big storm or anything, but it's certainly a sign that winter's not over and that it may not be time for snow bunny hiberations.

[sertorius]

Gothpunk-IL-WX:

Well, the 0z NAM is taking everything further south-no surprise really-however, the problem now, is that the temp. profiles have the surface at about 40 degrees (7 degrees celsius)-thus, for this area from here down thru say Wichita, it will be rain. You may get lucky and have colder air work in-time will tell, but for me now, this again, is a non event-oh well, it was a fun three hours. This winter is not to be here in regards to snow-cold-yea-have more next week-real cold-moisture yea-but never cold and moisture together!!!

At 27 hours, the NAM has this area in close to 1/4 inch of precip-great!!! However, the temp. profile has the surface at 7C-won't get much snow at that temp. Looks like more lite rain and all the heavey moisture to the south will be rain as well.

[sertorius]

GothPunk-IL-WX:

Your temp. profiles are much colder than mine are according to the 0z NAM-the bulk of the precip. may be south, but you have plenty of time for that to change-hopefully with more precip. you won't have warm air affecting you-good luck-someone around here in the dead center needs to get some snow-man are we in doughnut hole or what this winter??? Topeka-Saint Louis has just been dreadfull this year!!!

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

I call it the winter weather Blind spot and certain the computer model forecast blind spot. Forecast change here some much that it isn't funny. Or is it? Don't lose hope just yet, it may be surprising. There increasing my chances from a 30 percent to a 50 percent later on, so apparently nobody is putting too much pressure on the 00UTC NAM.

[sertorius]

One more quick note: The NWS out of Topeka and Kansas City mention nothing about cold air comming into this area next week-have us with a high of 45 next Tuesday-the EURO sure seems colder than that-maybe I'm missing something??? Both 0z GFS and NAM take all precip south of here-another near miss-oh well-some day this area will get the big snow-I still think we will be much colder next week!!