Winter Weather in the deep south thread

[Ivanhater]

12z back on track ...

[LAwxrgal]

Here we go, model watching. It's just like Hurricane Season....

For a snow event to take place in the south, both the cold air and the overrunning moisture have to be in place at the same time. Can't have the moisture without the cold, or the precip is going to fall as rain. Can't have the cold air without the moisture, or you're going to see what we just saw these past couple days.

As we get closer to the event, we're going to have a better handle on what exactly is going to happen. One thing to remember, winter precip in the South is not usually predicted, it just comes

[ronjon]

12Z GFS a little later past mid-January. Hmmm, snow for FL?

[Brent]

Very interesting, and it's only eight days out! The local forecasters will have to predict something soon.





This is the perfect setup for snow around here.

[JonathanBelles]

why are you guys looking at the 850mb layer instead of the near-surface layer?

[icicle]

I really hope we can get a decent snowstorm here this winter. Its been 10 yrs since we've had more than a dusting at my location.

[Ed Mahmoud]

why are you guys looking at the 850mb layer instead of the near-surface layer?

Well, almost all the precip on those images are South of the 850 mb freezing line anyway, so even if the model was right, there wouldn't be snow on the Gulf Coast or Florida.

[HarlequinBoy]

Jackson's disco mentions something.. I've noticed they tend to be a bit liberal though.

IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT IT SUGGESTS ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
NOT ONLY THAT BUT IT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW IN THE GOM WHICH
COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER PRECIP LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS OUT THERE BUT IT COULD BE SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING. OVERALL NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Jackson's disco mentions something.. I've noticed they tend to be a bit liberal though.

IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT IT SUGGESTS ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
NOT ONLY THAT BUT IT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW IN THE GOM WHICH
COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER PRECIP LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS OUT THERE BUT IT COULD BE SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING. OVERALL NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

I get more excited when the GFS is predicting something within its higher resolution 180 hour limit. The 0Z GFS is coming out already, let see what it looks like.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Jackson's disco mentions something.. I've noticed they tend to be a bit liberal though.

IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT IT SUGGESTS ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
NOT ONLY THAT BUT IT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW IN THE GOM WHICH
COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER PRECIP LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS OUT THERE BUT IT COULD BE SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING. OVERALL NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

I get more excited when the GFS is predicting something within its higher resolution 180 hour limit. The 0Z GFS is coming out already, let see what it looks like.

Ok, cold air and Florida/Gulf Coast precip again fail to align. But, breaking the rule about 180 hours, GFS predicts light, maybe even moderate, snow in Dallas at tau 216...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Jackson's disco mentions something.. I've noticed they tend to be a bit liberal though.

IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT IT SUGGESTS ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
NOT ONLY THAT BUT IT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW IN THE GOM WHICH
COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER PRECIP LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS OUT THERE BUT IT COULD BE SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING. OVERALL NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

I get more excited when the GFS is predicting something within its higher resolution 180 hour limit. The 0Z GFS is coming out already, let see what it looks like.


Ok, cold air and Florida/Gulf Coast precip again fail to align. But, breaking the rule about 180 hours, GFS predicts light, maybe even moderate, snow in Dallas at tau 216...

Ah, each panel of the 4 panel is its own gif file...

[icicle]

Local mets have a high of 41 with rain here for saturday.

[Brent]

Local mets have a high of 41 with rain here for saturday.

Snow cancel AS USUAL. Too warm with rain or freezing cold and dry. BLAH!

[CajunMama]

Quit complaining brent! At least you'll be getting much needed moisture.

[Sean in New Orleans]

New Orleans NWS remains conservative, but, mentions the scenario:

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH A WAVE/SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE GULF COAST OR NORTH GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS LOOKS A BIT TOO SUPPRESSED IN
THE GULF WITH THE LOW AND THE HPC SOLUTION TAKES A WAVE ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...NEAR OUR OUTER
COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
TO BRING MUCH OF A THREAT OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...SO AM
LEANING TOWARDS A WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY SCENARIO WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

[HarlequinBoy]

Jackson still mentions something.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER
BLAST OF COLD AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY COLD AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW CONDITIONS DEVELOP.


Anyways, it's crazy warm outside right now. 67 at 10:03 PM.

[icicle]

not even a mention of rain now.

[HarlequinBoy]

Nope.. but still cold.

Memphis Afternoon Disco
BEYOND DAY 4 THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND DRY AS TEMPERATURES
LOWER TO MORE AVERAGE JANUARY READINGS. ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICTING
HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BY DAY 7 AND
BEYOND. IF THIS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER AND
COULD RESULT IN COLD SNAP FOR NEXT WEEK IN MIDSOUTH.

[Lowpressure]

Charlotte area actually mentioning possible winter precip type issues.
Not too optimistic, but at least looking at the potential. Many times these potential issues turn into ice for us.

WHICH BRINGS US TO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHEN THE GFS ONCE
AGAIN SPINS UP A LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES IT UP THE
SE COAST. THE LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN BEAR LITTLE RESEMBLANCE...
BUT HPC TRACKS A LOW ALONG THE COAST LIKE THE GFS. SO...THE FORECAST
GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE HPC IDEA. PARTIAL THICKNESS IS BORDERLINE
OUTSIDE THE MTNS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN SURFACE
BASED WARM LAYER ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS CLOSER TO THE COOLER AIR...AND A MIXED BAG OF SNOW
AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. I WOULD HESITATE TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE
PROSPECTS FOR WINTER PRECIP AT THIS TIME BECAUSE SO MUCH CAN GO
WRONG BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY A STORM OF
INTEREST. NO MATTER WHAT MODEL IS RIGHT...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
MTN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE MTNS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.
STAY TUNED.-- End Changed Discussion --

[Stormcenter]

This outlook is from our friends at Accu-you know what for the New
Orleans area for the dates listed below.

Monday, Jan 21 More Details Cloudy with a cold wind Low: 29 °FHigh: 48 °F

Tuesday, Jan 22 More Details Windy with snow and rain Low: 32 °FHigh: 47 °F

Wednesday, Jan 23 More Details Rain, some ice early; windy Low: 34 °FHigh: 50 °F