Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

Gang, I haven't seen one model run yet that suggests anything more than a dusting of snow (and that was "worst case") for the DFW area. I understand the excitement generated by the uncertainty of the upper low track and some of the "further south" trends but let's try and stay as realistic as possible here and not freak out folks who have travel plans or have family making travel plans for DFW.

While your notice was warranted earlier, it's not now. No one is freaking out, and the most he said for DFW was one to two inches. Even Wfaa says one inch. I would advise her not to freak out about her husband considering it probably won't even stick on roads at first, so I'm sure his travel plans will be just fine. But looking at the latest input from the model it definitely shows precip while below freezing in DFW, so an inch is not really too crazy right now.

Really? Please tell me which model is showing an inch of frozen precip in the DFW area? I may have missed it. But I have looked at the 18z GFS and NAM and didn't see that. And, for the record, WFAA's website indicates a forecast of "one inch or less on grassy surfaces." There is no mention whatsoever of road issues, etc.

I've looked at a few in the past hour they all run together now, but looking again at the 18z it shows precip falling with temps below freezing, whether it's just a dusting or an inch, is obviously too early to tell right now. And no one mentioned road trouble it was brought up by someone else.

[msstateguy83]

details, details... ok yes 1-3 inches on GRASSY areas... the forecast is subject to change though
and you can take it to the bank per the latest runs it wont be a shift to the north it will be to the
south. to sit on here and say or act like dallas-fortworth is not gonna get much of nothing is a bit
ridiculous.

[Portastorm]

Agreed as I indicated I see some possibilities for light precip occurring with the atmospheric profile could enough for snow in the DFW area but nothing along the lines of 1-2 inches. Yeah, the WFAA is extreme and it surprised me.

I am just concerned when I see a poster worried about her husband's drive from Bedford to Plano. Unless something changes dramatically, he should have no problems whatsoever other than wet roadways. Let's be clear that any talk of snow more than flurries in the DFW area is well beyond what the National Weather Service is currently forecasting and they are the experts.

[Portastorm]

details, details... ok yes 1-3 inches on GRASSY areas... the forecast is subject to change though
and you can take it to the bank per the latest runs it wont be a shift to the north it will be to the
south. to sit on here and say or act like dallas-fortworth is not gonna get much of nothing is a bit
ridiculous.

Alright then. Call me Mr. Ridiculous.

Worst case I say DFW gets a "dusting" of snow.

[Texas Snowman]

Really? Please tell me which model is showing an inch of frozen precip in the DFW area? I may have missed it. But I have looked at the 18z GFS and NAM and didn't see that. And, for the record, WFAA's website indicates a forecast of "one inch or less on grassy surfaces." There is no mention whatsoever of road issues, etc.[/quote]

Easy everybody, easy.

Portastorm, to be absolutely technical about this, WFAA.com says "Morning rain, mixing with and changing to snow. Accumulation one inch or less on grassy surfaces. One to three inches north of a Denton-McKinney line."

McKinney and Denton and points lying between them on US 380 are definitely considered as the northern suburbs of the DFW Metroplex now. So IMO WFAA is definitely going out on a limb and predicting accumulating snow for a PORTION of the Metroplex.

And for that matter, KOCO in OKC is predicting 2-6" through southern Oklahoma to the Red River.

Dallas will likely miss out on any heavy snow, but it is a close call IMO.

[iorange55]

Agreed as I indicated I see some possibilities for light precip occurring with the atmospheric profile could enough for snow in the DFW area but nothing along the lines of 1-2 inches. Yeah, the WFAA is extreme and it surprised me.

I am just concerned when I see a poster worried about her husband's drive from Bedford to Plano. Unless something changes dramatically, he should have no problems whatsoever other than wet roadways. Let's be clear that any talk of snow more than flurries in the DFW area is well beyond what the National Weather Service is currently forecasting and they are the experts.

I agree she shouldn't be worrying about that right now as of the way it looks RIGHT NOW there would really be no concern for him, maybe just something nice to look at on the way home.

[cheezyWXguy]

Gang, I haven't seen one model run yet that suggests anything more than a dusting of snow (and that was "worst case") for the DFW area. I understand the excitement generated by the uncertainty of the upper low track and some of the "further south" trends but let's try and stay as realistic as possible here and not freak out folks who have travel plans or have family making travel plans for DFW.

While your notice was warranted earlier, it's not now. No one is freaking out, and the most he said for DFW was one to two inches. Even Wfaa says one inch. I would advise her not to freak out about her husband considering it probably won't even stick on roads at first, so I'm sure his travel plans will be just fine. But looking at the latest input from the model it definitely shows precip while below freezing in DFW, so an inch is not really too crazy right now.

Really? Please tell me which model is showing an inch of frozen precip in the DFW area? I may have missed it. But I have looked at the 18z GFS and NAM and didn't see that. And, for the record, WFAA's website indicates a forecast of "one inch or less on grassy surfaces." There is no mention whatsoever of road issues, etc.

Idk man...i just looked at the 18z GFS and hour 30 looks pretty nice. Just north of DFW qpf is relatively high, and 850mb temps are WELL below freezing. If surface temps arent, they are close. Assuming that it is snow falling with that qpf, it would falling faster than melting, meaning at least grass accumulations are possible at that time.

Btw i know surface temps on GFS are about 6 hours behind, but the surface can still be a couple degrees above freezing and snow can still stick (i.e, a few weeks ago when it unexpectedly snowed in the north DFW metro). And even still, the gfs does show light qpf at hour 36, when temps ARE below freezing.

[msstateguy83]

i have been busy looking at alot of models, sat imagery,exc,exc... so the ? maybe was not handled well on my part w/my answer but bottom line frzing temps not till around 2am or later likely in the metroplex, road surface, ground temps still quite warm at that time, anything falling will only stick to the grass, roads SHOULD remain clear. i say that pending the track of the upper level low IF it tracks further south i have no problem what so ever saying dallas-fortworth could get heavy snow which could seriously impact travel.

edit: would add also that pending the upper level track south, IF there was to be some heavy bands of snow go thru the metroplex
it would not matter what the ground temp was, b/c of the high rate of the snow coming down would pile up so quickly ground temps would not be a factor.

[iorange55]

i have been busy looking at alot of models, sat imagery,exc,exc... so the ? maybe was not handled well on my part w/my answer but bottom line frzing temps not till around 2am or later likely in the metroplex, road surface, ground temps still quite warm at that time, anything falling will only stick to the grass, roads SHOULD remain clear. i say that pending the track of the upper level low IF it tracks further south i have no problem what so ever saying dallas-fortworth could get heavy snow which could seriously impact travel.

Big big big IF though. considering its already moved so much more south it's beginning to run out of time, you know? I just don't know if it has much more time to really change too much, as of now.

[Texas Snowman]

I'll also say this...and probably get ripped for it, but oh well.

The old time forecasters that are held in such great esteem here (i.e. Brownsville NWS, Harold Taft, etc.) knew meterology, not model worship like so many of us here do.

They were unafraid to go against the "data" if they had a good enough reason to do so.

Case in point, a massive ice storm was once predicted for DFW. Everybody - and I mean from the NWS to Troy D - bought into the idea and forecast a crippling storm.

Everybody except for Harold Taft, that is. He calmly explained that night why he disagreed with everyone else's forecast and why he thought an ice storm would not materialize.

Guess who was right?

I for one respect the fact that KOCO and WFAA are having the guts to go out on a limb, disagree with the local NWS forecasts, and truly issue a weather FORECAST, not just merely a re-read of the NWS forecast or of a printout that is spitting out model data.

Who will be right? In 24 hours, we'll know!

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Sorry, I did not mean to cause any problems asking about the road conditions. To be fair, the Tollway is dangerous with just rain or when it is dry! I have experienced it taking 2 hours to get from Irving to Bedford with a previous snow storm.

[Ntxw]

Snow or no snow, ice or no ice, it's good advice to take precaution anyways as the roads themselves would be busy with holiday travelers. Should anything fall, traffic headaches could happen not bc there is snow or ice on the road, but the more psychological effect it would have on drivers. Not to mention wet roads. Take it safe

[vbhoutex]

This warning will not be repeated.
The use of the official S2K disclaimer is mandatory when one is issuing a forecast of any type that is not from an official agency. Failure to use the disclaimer will result in loss of posting privileges for up to 3 days on first offense, especially if one has been warned outside of this post I am making.
S2K strives to keep an open forum for discussions, but we also want our members and non-members who come here for information to know when a forecast is official and when it is someone other than an officials or pro-mets forecast. We are all for wide open discussion of the probabilities and possibilities of the weather and its' effects, but we do not tolerate -removed- of weather that is not likely to happen based on modeling and other sources available. If you want to make a forecast we indeed encourage it, but with the caveats listed above.

[msstateguy83]

a koco meteorologist was saying they were getting blasted for the calls of heavy snow, said he was just quite to the point w/the viewers explaining the nws forecast currently is being on the conservative side *which it is* this could turn out far worse then what oun is saying at the present time.

[iorange55]

Snow or no snow, ice or no ice, it's good advice to take precaution anyways as the roads themselves would be busy with holiday travelers. Should anything fall, traffic headaches could happen not bc there is snow or ice on the road, but the more psychological effect it would have on drivers.

lol that brought a funny image of my head. Of mass traffic and hysteria in DFW tomorrow with a few flurries falling. People jumping out of their car, taking cover. It doesn't take much to cause silliness here.

[srainhoutx]

Folks, we need to remember there is a severe side to this storm. A tornado is reported on the ground near Marshall in Harrison County. I just want to let folks know that there is a different side to this storm besides any wintry precip threats.

[Ntxw]

Snow or no snow, ice or no ice, it's good advice to take precaution anyways as the roads themselves would be busy with holiday travelers. Should anything fall, traffic headaches could happen not bc there is snow or ice on the road, but the more psychological effect it would have on drivers.

lol that brought a funny image of my head. Of mass traffic and hysteria in DFW tomorrow with a few flurries falling. People jumping out of their car, taking cover. It doesn't take much to cause silliness here.

I've been through that and it isn't fun even if there is a the slimmest sight of a flake or pellet it's mass mayhem lol

[Portastorm]

Hey, it's all good ... I'm just challenging some of these comments/forecasts. We're all amateurs here but I worry about those who lurk or even post and may have a very elementary understanding of weather. I could see someone (let's call her Mary) reading posts about 1-2 inches in Dallas and calling Aunt Edna and telling her "don't come tomorrow because we might have a snowstorm." You know?

FWIW, I told msstateguy83 this morning that I thought his forecast was bold but I wished him luck on it. But when "Mary" reads posts about 1-2 inches in Dallas, she needs to understand that it is nothing more than one amateur's opinion and an opinion that is extreme right now. Could he be right? Sure. Is it likely he is right? No, not with all the data I have seen and the NWS forecast.

I certainly have no hard feelings and enjoy the discussion and appreciate everyone on here. That is why we're here. Debate, discussion, joys, thrills, disappointments, frustrations, whatever.

I would expect and hope to get the same banter from my own comments and welcome them. And, at the end of the day, I hope msstateguy83 is right and DFW gets its snow for Christmas! I just think it is a longshot and that is only one weather weenie's opinion. Mine!

[Portastorm]

Sorry, I did not mean to cause any problems asking about the road conditions. To be fair, the Tollway is dangerous with just rain or when it is dry! I have experienced it taking 2 hours to get from Irving to Bedford with a previous snow storm.

Please!! You did nothing of the sort. You were only asking a good question. You have nothing to apologize over!

[msstateguy83]

i do agree with the rules that we should from here on out try our best myself included from here on out to up hold the standards of storm2k.org just as if we are talking about this on the air tv and or radio because i might sometimes not think its a big deal, i might not be 'onair' on here but we do have a pretty big following so i agree with all the points made!