Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

As each low pulls out of the southern plains, there will be a trailing cold front across Texas that will lift the warm moist air being drawn north from the GOM. The models certainly see it:

12z GFS 16 day rainfall forecast:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

That graphic shows a grand total of 1 inch of rain where I live over the next 16 days. Far from what we need. The dailies predict around .5 inches on Monday and about .5 inches the following Monday. Otherwise, dry.

aggiecutter's original post referred to "much needed rain" and not "enough rain to overcome the drought." Considering the severity of our drought, ANY rain is welcomed and much needed. That sentiment has been echoed in numerous forecast discussions I have read from NWS professionals from forecast offices across Texas in the last month. Let's not be argumentative just for the sake of it, please.

[Texas Snowman]

Here, here!

I'll take all the much needed rain we can get. The drought may be far from over but we at least dented it pretty good here in the Red River Valley over the last couple of months.

We had over four inches officially in Sherman/Denison for the month of December. Added with the 3.15 inches we got in November, our situation has improved dramatically here.

My primary duck hunting hole (a couple of acres) was nearly bone dry in October (only a few inches of water in a 20 X 30 yard pool of muddy liquid) is now completely full again (and nearly eight feet deep). Nearly every stock tank and small lake in Grayson County is filled to the brim and we've had ample sheet water in agricultural fields.

Lake Texoma is still nearly 4.5 feet low however so I'll take every .5 inch to 1-inch total we can get.

[austinrunner]

Easy Negative Nancy!!! 1 inch in two days aint bad!!!

That's 1 inch over a 16-day period, which works out to about 22 inches per year, which would still be much below normal for my location.

[austinrunner]

12Z GFS develops one "monster high" (defined as > 1050 mb), in the Yukon around 12 January, with surface temperatures right underneath the high of a relatively mild -30 to -35F. Where does it go? Mostly north of the Canadian border as it weakens through the end of the forecast period, with a small chunk coming through Texas (briefly) around 19 January.

18Z GFS is essentially the same, with only minor differences. No indication from that model of a Siberian express for Texas. Cold air keeps getting shunted more east or east-south-east than south.

[Ntxw]

Latest ensembles agree with the Ops that a potential cool down is in the works behind the early week system. As JB has tweeted it is not out of the realms that people with agricultural interests in the Rio Grand Valley should monitor. As many have posted before and mentioned, Larry Cosgrove continues his stance on a pattern change via today's blog entry.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/larry-cosgrove

Here's is the latest HPC discussion regarding potential weather for next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
128 PM EST THU JAN 05 2012

VALID 12Z SUN JAN 08 2012 - 12Z THU JAN 12 2012

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
THAT INITIALLY DIGS THROUGH NEVADA/AZ/UT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL TAKE A SCENIC ROUTE EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING THE CORNER TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION... NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS POISED TO DIG
SHARPLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER POTENTIAL
QUICK COLD SHOT TO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THU/D7. HEIGHT ANOMALIES
AROUND D+8 SUPPORT AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH VIA WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING THOUGH THE WESTERN CONUS EVOLUTION IS LESS CLEAR.

MODELS HAVE HAD TROUBLE FORECASTING HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW
EXITS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ON
THE SLOWER SIDE WHILE THE GFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN QUICKER.
HOWEVER... OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE HAS BEEN A GREATER
TREND IN THE ECMWF FOR A QUICKER PROGRESSION COMPARED TO A SLOWER
TREND IN THE GFS... WITH A NOTICEABLE QUICKER TREND IN THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN AS WELL. THE 00Z/05 OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY FAVOR A QUICKER PACE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF... THOUGH THE
SPREAD IS STILL BROAD. FOLLOWED A 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLEND
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THEIR BLEND CORRELATED WELL WITH THE
WELL-PERFORMING 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL EXISTS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A DECENT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE. BY THU/D7... AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW HEADS UP I-81... THE EASTERN TROUGH MAY BE
REINFORCED AS CANADIAN ENERGY DIVES DOWN THROUGH MINNESOTA.
OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONUS.

THE WEST WILL HAVE A BRIEF INTERRUPTION TO ONGOING RIDGING AROUND
TUE/D5 AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS/GEFS
MEAN SHOW A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE ECMWF SHOWS
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS RATHER FLAT SO
IT APPEARS ANYTHING IS ON THE TABLE AT THIS TIME.

12Z MODEL UPDATE... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST
THEIR TIMING/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED LOW TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN
STATES NEXT WEEK ON EITHER SIDE OF THE PRELIM GUIDANCE. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THU/D7 NW OF
THE PAC NW AS THE MODELS HANDLE UPSTREAM ENERGY SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA DIFFERENTLY.

FRACASSO

[austinrunner]

The GFS ensemble mean for 1/13 is showing 850 mb temperatures in north Texas around 2 standard deviations below normal. While cold (between -5 and -10 C), it would not be that unusual. It's only when you get to an anomaly around 3 standard deviations (or more) that we should talk about rare events. There are none of those anywhere on the map for that date (warm or cold). Despite all the bitter cold weather progged for eastern Siberia and Alaska for the next week, it never reaches the 3 standard deviation mark. (I'm talking about 850 mb temperatures, not surface temperatures. Unfortunately, the source I use for standard deviation information does not cover the latter.)

For those interested in Siberian weather, the following website maps GFS predicted surface temperatures of -60 to -70 F for very small areas during the next 16 days:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_ ... TEMP_IMAGE
That area appears to be on or near Verkhoyansk, which is almost always one of the 2 or 3 coldest places in the world (outside Antarctica).
http://www.nytimes.com/1994/09/03/world ... eople.html
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... ites/57906

[Portastorm]

The "Negative Nancy" comment was not a PM but something posted earlier in the day. Everyone back off austinrunner. In fact, EVERYONE here needs to relax and think twice before they post comments. I understand there is a difference of opinion and that is fine. But I, along with the other mods, will now be a little more aggressive about "keeping the peace."

[Ntxw]

(I'm talking about 850 mb temperatures, not surface temperatures. Unfortunately, the source I use for standard deviation information does not cover the latter.)

Can you explain what deviation is and how it is calculated? That's one area I have virtually no information for

[austinrunner]

I think this website would do a much better job of explaining than I could:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/training/

Click on the links on the left for lots of information, including the historic cold (and hot) outbreaks of the past.

[weatherdude1108]

On the local weather today on tv, the weathercaster said Truckee, CA usually has 200 inches of snow on the ground by now. He said they have zero snow on the ground now. Buffalo, NY has received five (5) inches of snow so far this winter. They normally receive 40 inches by now. Aberdeen, SD was warmer today than Austin, TX at some point today and had a record high of, I think, 68(?). They also have received less than one (1) inch of snow so far, which is an all-time latest snow fall(?). I'm going off of memory, so I may be wrong with some of the details. My apologies in advance. In any case, my point is, Winter is starting off WEIRD this year. Must be the silly AO(?).

[orangeblood]

The GFS ensemble mean for 1/13 is showing 850 mb temperatures in north Texas around 2 standard deviations below normal. While cold (between -5 and -10 C), it would not be that unusual. It's only when you get to an anomaly around 3 standard deviations (or more) that we should talk about rare events. There are none of those anywhere on the map for that date (warm or cold). Despite all the bitter cold weather progged for eastern Siberia and Alaska for the next week, it never reaches the 3 standard deviation mark. (I'm talking about 850 mb temperatures, not surface temperatures. Unfortunately, the source I use for standard deviation information does not cover the latter.)

For those interested in Siberian weather, the following website maps GFS predicted surface temperatures of -60 to -70 F for very small areas during the next 16 days:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_ ... TEMP_IMAGE
That area appears to be on or near Verkhoyansk, which is almost always one of the 2 or 3 coldest places in the world (outside Antarctica).
http://www.nytimes.com/1994/09/03/world ... eople.html
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... ites/57906

For someone who was calling everyone out for looking at the long range GFS, you sure do reference it a lot. If you don't mind, please be sure to get back to me next weekend with an update...I would suspect you'll see plenty of standard deviations of 2-3 plus across Siberia into Alaska. Next week's cold snap is just the appetizer!!!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[orangeblood]

On the local weather today on tv, the weathercaster said Truckee, CA usually has 200 inches of snow on the ground by now. He said they have zero snow on the ground now. Buffalo, NY has received five (5) inches of snow so far this winter. They normally receive 40 inches by now. Aberdeen, SD was warmer today than Austin, TX at some point today and had a record high of, I think, 68(?). They also have received less than one (1) inch of snow so far, which is an all-time latest snow fall(?). I'm going off of memory, so I may be wrong with some of the details. My apologies in advance. In any case, my point is, Winter is starting off WEIRD this year. Must be the silly AO(?).

So true weatherdude1108, the extremely positive AO has been bottling all of the cold air across the extreme northern latitudes for most of the winter but that appears to be changing starting late next week. Mother Nature sometimes has a strange way of balancing things out in the end!!!!

[Ntxw]

On the local weather today on tv, the weathercaster said Truckee, CA usually has 200 inches of snow on the ground by now. He said they have zero snow on the ground now. Buffalo, NY has received five (5) inches of snow so far this winter. They normally receive 40 inches by now. Aberdeen, SD was warmer today than Austin, TX at some point today and had a record high of, I think, 68(?). They also have received less than one (1) inch of snow so far, which is an all-time latest snow fall(?). I'm going off of memory, so I may be wrong with some of the details. My apologies in advance. In any case, my point is, Winter is starting off WEIRD this year. Must be the silly AO(?).

Very odd indeed, and I think so too the AO had much to do with it. Many times a teleconnection signal is so strong it overwhelms all of the others. But the AO doesn't necessarily explain the wet (compared to other regions of the country) that Texas and surrounding states have experienced since November. Give credit to the subtropical jet for that. I'm not a superstitious person but the earth is always trying to keep a balance, and so far it's been rather ironic that Texas/OK/NM have received rains and not as much of a warm anomaly as other regions being the place where heat/drought was the worst for the summer.

[gboudx]

On the local weather today on tv, the weathercaster said Truckee, CA usually has 200 inches of snow on the ground by now. He said they have zero snow on the ground now. Buffalo, NY has received five (5) inches of snow so far this winter. They normally receive 40 inches by now. Aberdeen, SD was warmer today than Austin, TX at some point today and had a record high of, I think, 68(?). They also have received less than one (1) inch of snow so far, which is an all-time latest snow fall(?). I'm going off of memory, so I may be wrong with some of the details. My apologies in advance. In any case, my point is, Winter is starting off WEIRD this year. Must be the silly AO(?).

I know a guy who lives in a Buffalo suburb. He told me they may have gotten 1" at his house. And it's been unusually mild. When DFW had that close call with snow several weeks ago, had I got snow at my house I would've seen snow before him.

[Rgv20]

Aside from the Texas Panhandle it looks like someone in North Texas might get a wintery surprise early next week....

Overall tho it looks like late next week it's going to be on the cool side with most of the state seeing lows below freezing.


12zGFS Ensembles 2m temperature anomalies. By Thursday the GFS Ensembles are forecasting Temperatures anywhere from 6-9F below normal for most of the state.



By Friday most of the below normal temperatures are for central and southern Texas.



Agree with orangeblood that this cool down could be just the tip of the iceberg!

[TrekkerCC]

(I'm talking about 850 mb temperatures, not surface temperatures. Unfortunately, the source I use for standard deviation information does not cover the latter.)

Can you explain what deviation is and how it is calculated? That's one area I have virtually no information for

Ok - I'm not a statistician, but given my (basic) understanding from the statistics classes I have taken - standard deviation is a measure of how much variation there is around the mean value. Now, we bring in the normal distribution. In statistics theory - the population tend to resolve towards a normal distribution as the numbers get large enough. Why statisticians like normal distributions (other than the fact that the population tends to resolve towards it when the data becomes large) is that it has some neat properties. 95% of the normal distribution lies within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Having an anomaly that is greater than two standard deviations is a very rare event (only 5% of the cases). Anyone with greater statistics knowledge than I, feel free to add, correct, or extend my explanation

[Ntxw]

Ok - I'm not a statistician, but given my (basic) understanding from the statistics classes I have taken - standard deviation is a measure of how much variation there is around the mean value. Now, we bring in the normal distribution. In statistics theory - the population tend to resolve towards a normal distribution as the numbers get large enough. Why statisticians like normal distributions (other than the fact that the population tends to resolve towards it when the data becomes large) is that it has some neat properties. 95% of the normal distribution lies within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Having an anomaly that is greater than two standard deviations is a very rare event (only 5% of the cases). Anyone with greater statistics knowledge than I, feel free to add, correct, or extend my explanation

Yeah, I finally understood it after awhile. Guess someone's been sleeping in his math class . Thanks to everyone for replying.

We are overdue for a 1989 outbreak!!! I wasn't born yet to experience that. Last year's cold snap was about the worst I have seen so...hoping for another big one! Give me some of those 3+ deviations

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ok - I'm not a statistician, but given my (basic) understanding from the statistics classes I have taken - standard deviation is a measure of how much variation there is around the mean value. Now, we bring in the normal distribution. In statistics theory - the population tend to resolve towards a normal distribution as the numbers get large enough. Why statisticians like normal distributions (other than the fact that the population tends to resolve towards it when the data becomes large) is that it has some neat properties. 95% of the normal distribution lies within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Having an anomaly that is greater than two standard deviations is a very rare event (only 5% of the cases). Anyone with greater statistics knowledge than I, feel free to add, correct, or extend my explanation

Yeah, I finally understood it after awhile. Guess someone's been sleeping in his math class . Thanks to everyone for replying.

We are overdue for a 1989 outbreak!!! I wasn't born yet to experience that. Last year's cold snap was about the worst I have seen so...hoping for another big one! Give me some of those 3+ deviations

You must be young! i was around for it. Its why im a weather freak today!!!

[Ntxw]

Another run of the GFS, yet another different solution. A strong storm out west as cold is beginning to trickle into the northern plains. Will the two phase?! And this is less than a week out...sigh no clue.



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Edit: Thank goodness for the Canadian, no Cali storm. Red river valley, maybe even east Texas is close to wintery surprise. Still has a good cold front coming down afterwards.

[gpsnowman]

Ok - I'm not a statistician, but given my (basic) understanding from the statistics classes I have taken - standard deviation is a measure of how much variation there is around the mean value. Now, we bring in the normal distribution. In statistics theory - the population tend to resolve towards a normal distribution as the numbers get large enough. Why statisticians like normal distributions (other than the fact that the population tends to resolve towards it when the data becomes large) is that it has some neat properties. 95% of the normal distribution lies within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Having an anomaly that is greater than two standard deviations is a very rare event (only 5% of the cases). Anyone with greater statistics knowledge than I, feel free to add, correct, or extend my explanation

Yeah, I finally understood it after awhile. Guess someone's been sleeping in his math class . Thanks to everyone for replying.

We are overdue for a 1989 outbreak!!! I wasn't born yet to experience that. Last year's cold snap was about the worst I have seen so...hoping for another big one! Give me some of those 3+ deviations

Holy cow you are young! I was fifteen when that happened. Yikes I am old. But I do remember it well though. Frozen pool almost a foot thick. Dad got on to me for making ice chunks and cracking the pool tile. How does your young brain have so much weather knowledge? Very impressive. Did I just reveal my age?