Texas Winter 2014-2015

[davidiowx]

I'm curious as to if a wet bulb effect will show up for SE Texas Wednesday into Thursday. Or is that out of the realm of possibilties?

[weatherguy425]

Also, I'm sure this has already been said - just in a different way...

I don't think the big issue is with forecast models being 'too warm', rather they are struggling with how far south this cold air-mass pushes. Within a reasonable margin of error, data isnt 'busting' left and right like previous outbreaks have.

For example GFS MOS data and NAM MET data have Lubbock in the 10-15 range the next two mornings, with highs in the middle 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Is that a 'bust' too warm? Not in my opinion, though I don't see a 10-15 diurnal range under thick cloud cover. However, further south, models will be too warm simply because they are underestimating the physics behind a dense, cold, air-mass. They 'like' to move south... In a hurry... If the patterns favors it.

While I agree with your post, I did show earlier today that the GFS was busting on temps up in western Kansas and Nebraska. It was off by 5-6 degrees in those locales at late morning. Will be curious to see how tonight's 0z GFS does with Amarillo temps tomorrow morning.

True. And, while 5 - 6 is a huge deal in a rain vs. freezing rain event, in general I would consider that within a general margin of error. Winter storm or not, mos/met data hardly ever hits the nail on the head. Comparing DIA (Denver) 4 PM temps with 18z data seemed to have a better initialization than 12z runs.

[weatherguy425]

So far, 00z initialization (NAM) does seem colder (2 - 5 degrees).

[stormlover2013]

Houston still rainy...?

Ya I don't think we will get anything more than a cold rain

Lol kingwood these models do horrible with shallow artic air, we were supposed get a cold rain in 2008 we say what happen

[SouthernMet]

So far, 00z initialization (NAM) does seem colder (2 - 5 degrees).

ehh it says current temp in amarillo is 38, KDFA is reporting 26. http://www.newschannel10.com/weather

[weatherguy425]

At 03z (~9PM) this 00z NAM has what I presume to be AMA (Amarillo) at 28°. As of 8:40 PM West Texas Mesonet sites around Amarillo are sitting between 26° and 30°. Not too far off.

[SouthernMet]

Latest SREF keeps temps ABOVE freezing through friday for Dallas. Lol

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

At 03z (~9PM) this 00z NAM has what I presume to be AMA (Amarillo) at 28°. As of 8:40 PM West Texas Mesonet sites around Amarillo are sitting between 26° and 30°. Not too far off.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... scus_2.png

It is off by about 4 degrees in the Oklahoma Panhandle, however.

[weatherguy425]

At 03z (~9PM) this 00z NAM has what I presume to be AMA (Amarillo) at 28°. As of 8:40 PM West Texas Mesonet sites around Amarillo are sitting between 26° and 30°. Not too far off.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... scus_2.png

It is off by about 4 degrees in the Oklahoma Panhandle, however.

So far, 00z initialization (NAM) does seem colder (2 - 5 degrees).

^Yes, averaging 2 - 5 too warm. Still, as a whole, guidance isn't doing too terrible of a job with the magnitude of cold air. However, models are largely ignoring the density of this air-mass and its tendency to push far southward under its own weight.

[orangeblood]

For those along and east of 35, look at the upstream Temps across Oklahoma and eastern Kansas...not nearly as much of a push as out in west Texas. Core of the cold will be out west, just don't think the cold advection is strong enough for a surprise this time around!!!

[Snowman67]

-7F in Valentine Nebraska. Hard to believe that the DFW area is only forecasted to have a low around freezing with this event, given a 1050mb high in Kansas. If this verifies, it may be the first time I remember something like this happening.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 907 PM CST MON DEC 29 2014 .UPDATE...

WINDS BEGAN BACKING AT SUNSET AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR OVER OKLAHOMA/KANSAS SPREADS SOUTH. HAVE UPDATED TO OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST TEXAS HAVE ALREADY REACHED A PARIS-GREENVILLE-FAIRFILED LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SEEM REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

AS FOR THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...TONIGHT/S NAM RUN DOES NOT ADD OR SUBTRACT ANY CONFIDENCE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FORM OF A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODEL QPF REMAINS LOW AND JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UNTIL NEW YEARS DAY WHEN QPF POTENTIAL INCREASES DUE INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST.

THUS...WE WILL ALLOW THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND TO REMAIN AS IS AND ISSUE AN UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE TO INCLUDE THE SKY COVER CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM IN THE MORNING. 75

[dhweather]

I just saw the funniest Charlie Brown / Lucy picture I've ever seen. I'm going to post it after this turns into a cold rain or nothing event.

[SouthernMet]

I hope the forum isn't this dead tomorrow..

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I hope the forum isn't this dead tomorrow..

I guess that's what happens when Texas, OU, and A$M play bowl games on the same day.

[davidiowx]

I hope the forum isn't this dead tomorrow..

I guess that's what happens when Texas, OU, and A$M play bowl games on the same day.

Isn't that the truth. Texas with a pathetic performance tonight and then the Rockets lost in an ugly fashion. I'm hoping for some entertainment meteorological wise tomorrow

[TheProfessor]

Who would of thought the Cowboys would be the team in Texas to not disappoint us so far lol.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What are the makings for a coastal low? Jet streak?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

For those along and east of 35, look at the upstream Temps across Oklahoma and eastern Kansas...not nearly as much of a push as out in west Texas. Core of the cold will be out west, just don't think the cold advection is strong enough for a surprise this time around!!!

And the models continue to show this. Hate to say it but besides the early run mythical snow storms they have shown in the long range, the gfs especially, has been persistent in showing that happening and continues to do so. Looks like a pretty good January thaw for much of the southern half country is right around the corner and have no reason to believe otherwise.

[SouthernMet]

Wow.. & just. like. that. CMC storms precip shield back in wed night... : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=476.3636

RGEM 48 hours : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=574.5455