Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Brent]

Closer look at the Monday setup:

[aggiecutter]

Closer look at the Monday setup:

On the EURO model, that snow scale is in feet, right?

[Yukon Cornelius]

:uarrow: Severe arctic blasts are very fun and fun to track upon arrival with dry cold air in place. But give me a beautiful snowfall at 29 degrees any during winter. To me, a steady and moderate to heavy snowfall is the most beautiful thing in nature. And nature has numerous moments of beauty. Watching snow fall just takes my breath away and is the most tranquil, peaceful experience a person can have in my honest opinion. Without a sound, snow can accumulate into this amazing layer of a perfect, untouched blanket of beauty that all of us can just sit back and admire. It rehashes old memories, creates new ones, and certainly procures a piece of mind through nature at its best. I do believe we will see some snow this winter, even Portastorm.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[orangeblood]

This is my suspicion on what is going to happen....

(1) Coldest air is probably going to be directed more southeast than south. Lets face it HP's under 1040 are not going to drill cold air straight into Texas.
(2) Lack of strong disturbances results in only light snow.

Oh and it seems even the severity of cold air will not be sustained east.

With a +PNA there's always the risk it could slide east if the ridge out west starts moving into the Rockies yeah. I'm not a huge fan of the +PNA, it's more favorable for east coast if anything. Unless there is a monster system coming out of the southern stream to drag the cold air back SW. We'll see though most of us aren't greedy we'll take light snow and 29F

With a PNA only hovering around +1, i'm not too concerned with the west coast ridge making it too far into the intermountain west. Along with the El Nino transitioning more towards a Modoki Type as the season progresses, this should prevent the Pacific Jet from slamming into the west coast like 97-98 and sustain the core axis of the Northern Pacific trough more towards the date line (pumping the ridge up along the west coast as opposed to interior North America)

[Brent]

Pete Delkus just went all out on hype lol... "the polar vortex arrives Sunday" "snowmaggedon" when he shows the Euro which has an inch of snow in the metro... that was a little bizarre even for him.

[Ntxw]

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viewtopic.php?f=37&t=117783

[Ntxw]

Back to back run of the Euro showing pretty much the same as it did 12z of light snow breaking out Monday morning along I-20 west to east northern half of state.

[Brent]

[gpsnowman]

Looks like temps are trending downward a bit according to the local outlooks. After the 60's on Thursday and Friday it is going to become downright chilly. Bring it!!!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

0Z GEM is too dry for any accumulation and 6Z GFS holds precip south of I-20. Hard to argue against the Euro though especially given that others are not too far off from it.

[Ralph's Weather]

Another great AFD from Cav this morning. Mentions possible severe storms on Friday and the range of snow scenarios for Monday. SHV shows sunny on Monday ugh, glad I am basically straddling the RWD and SHV boundary so I can just take the forecast for Van instead of Lindale.

[EnnisTx]

NWS Office Fort Worth:

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGE UPPER
TROUGH...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACTIVITY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN ON AND OFF SHOWING SOME ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TROUGHS...LEADING TO MODEL OUTPUT OF QPF OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF
TEXAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH CONSISTENCY
ON MONDAY TO GO AHEAD AND INSERT A 20 POP ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START OFF MONDAY MORNING WELL BELOW
FREEZING...AND CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FORECAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME... BUT
WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
MORNING AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. WILL NOT GO INTO
ALL OF THE POSSIBILITIES AND COMPLICATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE ARE MANY.

FOR NOW THIS IS THE REASONABLE SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES:

WORST CASE SCENARIO: PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEP. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL WOULD BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

LEAST IMPACT SCENARIO: THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND ON MONDAY. WE SIMPLY STAY COLD AND
CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AT THIS TIME THE LEAST IMPACT SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY TO
VERIFY...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM AS WE APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH IMPACT WINTER
WEATHER/BIG ACCUMULATIONS DO AT LEAST LOOK VERY UNLIKELY.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES...AND LIKELY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

CAVANAUGH

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Radar already showing a good bit of light rainfall cross the region this morning as low level dry air mass is pushed out by returning Gulf moisture.

Coastal warm front has developed ENE of coastal trough/surface low off the middle TX coast and radar shows a few stronger thunderstorms have developed along this feature this morning. TX TECH WRF seems to have a decent handle on the ongoing situation and brings decent amounts of showers and some thunderstorms across the region today and tonight as the tail end of the passing southern plains short wave provides lift over the region. Could see some heavy rainfall from mid afternoon through the evening hours with amounts of 1-2 inches possible.

Rains will end from the west Thursday morning, but the break will be short lived as the next in a series of short wave currently moving into the southern CA coast moves eastward into TX. Rapid moisture return on Friday will yield another chance of rainfall by Friday evening into the overnight period. Moisture does not look as plentiful as with the current system, but enough to squeeze out some rainfall. Much colder air mass surges southward behind this system on Saturday with temperatures falling from highs in the 70’s on Thursday and Friday to the 40’s and 50’s by Sunday. Could see lows near freezing Monday morning over portions of the area, but increasing clouds late Sunday into early Monday ahead of another disturbance may prevent freezing temperatures as the clouds will help to act as a blanket over the region. With all that said, will need to keep an eye on the Monday morning period as this disturbance might have enough moisture over our northern counties to produce some very light precipitation Monday morning when temperatures are coldest. Right now see no reason to expect anything other than some light sprinkles.

Rain chances increase Monday and Tuesday as a weak coastal trough develop advecting moisture northward over the cold dome at the surface.

[orangeblood]

For those south of I-20....with plenty of Arctic Air to tap into, the system depicted to transverse the State around the 15-16th looks like it has some winter weather potential. The ensembles are starting to converge on a better solution and most track it across the southern portions of the state. Still 9-10 days out but pay close attention to that one as we get closer!!!

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow: Severe arctic blasts are very fun and fun to track upon arrival with dry cold air in place. But give me a beautiful snowfall at 29 degrees any during winter. To me, a steady and moderate to heavy snowfall is the most beautiful thing in nature. And nature has numerous moments of beauty. Watching snow fall just takes my breath away and is the most tranquil, peaceful experience a person can have in my honest opinion. Without a sound, snow can accumulate into this amazing layer of a perfect, untouched blanket of beauty that all of us can just sit back and admire. It rehashes old memories, creates new ones, and certainly procures a piece of mind through nature at its best. I do believe we will see some snow this winter, even Portastorm.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Ditto!
I was a kid living in San Antonio when it snowed a record 14 inches on January 12-13, 1985, in San Antonio. It also had snowed earlier that month a couple of inches, and later in the month. The city was incapacitated with the 14-incher, but it brought out a serene "white blanket" of peacefulness to the entire landscape in a large metropolitan area as far as the eye could see. You could not tell where the grass, sidewalk, or streets bordered each other. It all looked the same. Whole Live Oak trees were bent down to the ground in the front yard of our house. It was an amazing site.

It brought a common denominator of friendliness and camaraderie to most everyone. People were taking advantage of the shut-down city and closed schools, coming out to play and sled in the snow, make snowmen, etc.

It was one of my favorite childhood memories, and the main reason I became so interested in weather.

May we see that type of thing again soon.

[CaptinCrunch]

Pete Delkus just went all out on hype lol... "the polar vortex arrives Sunday" "snowmaggedon" when he shows the Euro which has an inch of snow in the metro... that was a little bizarre even for him.

Pete Delkus HYPE's everything, (a flake of snow, a grain of sleet). Not a fan of him, but he is good for a laugh or two.

[Yukon Cornelius]

From a couple things I've seen it doesn't appear that this cold shot will last but for a couple days and then it looks like it's going to be back up into the mid to upper 50s and some days approaching 60.

[dhweather]

:uarrow: Severe arctic blasts are very fun and fun to track upon arrival with dry cold air in place. But give me a beautiful snowfall at 29 degrees any during winter. To me, a steady and moderate to heavy snowfall is the most beautiful thing in nature. And nature has numerous moments of beauty. Watching snow fall just takes my breath away and is the most tranquil, peaceful experience a person can have in my honest opinion. Without a sound, snow can accumulate into this amazing layer of a perfect, untouched blanket of beauty that all of us can just sit back and admire. It rehashes old memories, creates new ones, and certainly procures a piece of mind through nature at its best. I do believe we will see some snow this winter, even Portastorm.

Bravo!

[Ralph's Weather]

From a couple things I've seen it doesn't appear that this cold shot will last but for a couple days and then it looks like it's going to be back up into the mid to upper 50s and some days approaching 60.

I expect that the models are doing their typical act of modifying an Arctic air mass too quickly though NW TX could see a brief warmup next Wed and Thur ahead of the next system. There is too much blocking for much warmth to develop.

[Yukon Cornelius]

From a couple things I've seen it doesn't appear that this cold shot will last but for a couple days and then it looks like it's going to be back up into the mid to upper 50s and some days approaching 60.

I expect that the models are doing their typical act of modifying an Arctic air mass too quickly though NW TX could see a brief warmup next Wed and Thur ahead of the next system. There is too much blocking for much warmth to develop.

That's what I was thinking/wondering.