Texas Winter 2016-2017

[TeamPlayersBlue]

32 here at TPB weather center. Already colder than all of last year (33). Lots of wind/sporadic clouds still here mixing up the shallow air. Dewpoint still dropping though. Im glad it hit freezing to kill the insane amount of lizards and bugs that were around.

[TexasF6]

Longhorn WXC had a low of 24 degrees in NW Austin. It is a shame we had no precip though. I hope WxMan57 has not ruined Christmas with warm and muggy air....

[jasons2k]

I had a low of 29. The NWS was pretty spot-on.

[ATCcane]

25.2 on my Vantage View west of Conroe in Montgomery this morning.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I can safely say the 6z GFS will not come to fruition.

What is it showing?

The ensembles had a degree of variability I haven't seen in a while. Over a 1000 mile discrepancy in the low placement, if the cutoff low ejects at all. There were so many scenarios it was laughable.

Naturally, the OP isn't handling anything well.

[Ntxw]

12Z GFS cuts the Christmas system to our west still. Has it in NM/Panhandle, compared to the 0Z run which was in Nebraska. The baja low it still can't quite figure out what to do, is all over the place with it.

DFW had a low of 16F this morning.

All of the ensembles and tropical forcing are strongly suggesting the return of the Aleutian ridge, anomalous cold through cross polar flow to pool over Alaska and Canada while the cold in the US relaxes, and stormy weather ensues.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS cuts the Christmas system to our west still. Has it in NM/Panhandle, compared to the 0Z run which was in Nebraska. The baja low it still can't quite figure out what to do, is all over the place with it.

DFW had a low of 16F this morning.

All of the ensembles and tropical forcing are strongly suggesting the return of the Aleutian ridge, anomalous cold through cross polar flow to pool over Alaska and Canada while the cold in the US relaxes, and stormy weather ensues.

That Southeast Ridge appears like it will really flex it's muscles over the next couple of weeks, it'll probably keep us in the "liquid only" sector throughout...will probably need a significant pattern change to break it down - most long range models don't have that occurring until mid Jan 2017

[OKMet83]

Like many I have followed you guys for awhile and am glad to be able to post my 2 cents now!

I know it's looking more and more like a warm pattern through Christmas but I still wouldn't trust the models beyond Day 3-4 ... Haven't even bothered to look at 12z data, likely won't much the 18 either...
Currious to see the 00z Tonight and data going into Tuesday for any sudden changes toward the wkend..

[gpsnowman]

12Z GFS cuts the Christmas system to our west still. Has it in NM/Panhandle, compared to the 0Z run which was in Nebraska. The baja low it still can't quite figure out what to do, is all over the place with it.

DFW had a low of 16F this morning.

All of the ensembles and tropical forcing are strongly suggesting the return of the Aleutian ridge, anomalous cold through cross polar flow to pool over Alaska and Canada while the cold in the US relaxes, and stormy weather ensues.

That Southeast Ridge appears like it will really flex it's muscles over the next couple of weeks, it'll probably keep us in the "liquid only" sector throughout...will probably need a significant pattern change to break it down - most long range models don't have that occurring until mid Jan 2017

Yeah, JB the last couple days has been talking about a little relaxation until mid January. He brought up 1984-85 as an analog. Last half of January and early February were brutal. I was only 11 but I remember 2 good snowstorms that winter. First winter back in Dallas after years away.

[weatherdude1108]

12Z GFS cuts the Christmas system to our west still. Has it in NM/Panhandle, compared to the 0Z run which was in Nebraska. The baja low it still can't quite figure out what to do, is all over the place with it.

DFW had a low of 16F this morning.

All of the ensembles and tropical forcing are strongly suggesting the return of the Aleutian ridge, anomalous cold through cross polar flow to pool over Alaska and Canada while the cold in the US relaxes, and stormy weather ensues.

That Southeast Ridge appears like it will really flex it's muscles over the next couple of weeks, it'll probably keep us in the "liquid only" sector throughout...will probably need a significant pattern change to break it down - most long range models don't have that occurring until mid Jan 2017

Yeah, JB the last couple days has been talking about a little relaxation until mid January. He brought up 1984-85 as an analog. Last half of January and early February were brutal. I was only 11 but I remember 2 good snowstorms that winter. First winter back in Dallas after years away.

I remember that Winter of 84-85 as well. I was in San Antonio in January 1985 when they had that record snowfall. I was only 12. That is what spurred my love and fascination with weather.

[Ntxw]

Like many I have followed you guys for awhile and am glad to be able to post my 2 cents now!

I know it's looking more and more like a warm pattern through Christmas but I still wouldn't trust the models beyond Day 3-4 ... Haven't even bothered to look at 12z data, likely won't much the 18 either...
Currious to see the 00z Tonight and data going into Tuesday for any sudden changes toward the wkend..

I would hesitate to call it a warm pattern for Texas. It is more of a volatile pattern up and down. Our influences is both the SE ridge and W trough. Forecasts will bust if one overruns the other. Much ado about the SE ridge this December yet most of Texas is below normal.

[Brandon8181]

Hello everyone! I hope all is well! Where is the snow? Glad to see so many people are returning here year after year, posting, and following.

[Brandon8181]

That Southeast Ridge appears like it will really flex it's muscles over the next couple of weeks, it'll probably keep us in the "liquid only" sector throughout...will probably need a significant pattern change to break it down - most long range models don't have that occurring until mid Jan 2017

Yeah, JB the last couple days has been talking about a little relaxation until mid January. He brought up 1984-85 as an analog. Last half of January and early February were brutal. I was only 11 but I remember 2 good snowstorms that winter. First winter back in Dallas after years away.

I remember that Winter of 84-85 as well. I was in San Antonio in January 1985 when they had that record snowfall. I was only 12. That is what spurred my love and fascination with weather.

I wonder if this 84-85 storm is the one that I've seen pictures of. I was born in 1983 and I remember seeing pictures of my dad building a really large snowman in our backyard. I lived in Sherman, TX during that time. Texas Snowman, are you here? I know you are in Denison, did you live in Denison at that time?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Our local mets have a high of 72 for Xmas on the updated forecast.

[A.V.]

Still a fail. This arctic mass, which brought intense, record breaking cold to the Midwest (once in a lifetime), and was basically a direct shot into Texas, could barely drop Houston to freezing levels; Galveston, Lake Jackson, etc still remain without a freeze. Once December passes, the axis of cold shifts east, and the arctic blasts won't be Texas centered. On top of that, a warm pattern commences. Thus, this looks like it will be the last cold blast of this caliber for the season. Even with this cold, temps still haven't been below 30F; Houston is about to have another zone 10 winter.

[Brent]

Euro up near 70 Christmas Eve and low/mid 70s Christmas Day. Christmas morning is in the upper 60s. Quite a bit of rain Christmas Day. Turns colder the 26th/especially the 27th with no precip.

The next cold air better have some precip already.

[WeatherGuesser]

I can only hope for shirtsleeve weather for the holidays. I might get 50s however.

[A.V.]

Still a fail. This arctic mass, which brought intense, record breaking cold to the Midwest (once in a lifetime), and was basically a direct shot into Texas, could barely drop Houston to freezing levels; Galveston, Lake Jackson, etc still remain without a freeze. Once December passes, the axis of cold shifts east, and the arctic blasts won't be Texas centered. On top of that, a warm pattern commences. Thus, this looks like it will be the last cold blast of this caliber for the season. Even with this cold, temps still haven't been below 30F; Houston is about to have another zone 10 winter.

And climatology does indeed support this trend. Take a look on this page:
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/ ... a-20141112

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Still a fail. This arctic mass, which brought intense, record breaking cold to the Midwest (once in a lifetime), and was basically a direct shot into Texas, could barely drop Houston to freezing levels; Galveston, Lake Jackson, etc still remain without a freeze. Once December passes, the axis of cold shifts east, and the arctic blasts won't be Texas centered. On top of that, a warm pattern commences. Thus, this looks like it will be the last cold blast of this caliber for the season. Even with this cold, temps still haven't been below 30F; Houston is about to have another zone 10 winter.

You're calling a winter cancel before the Winter Solstice. You dont expect anyone to take you seriously do you?

It was a direct shot with an average HP, crossed at 1035 MB. Galveston and areas along the coast would take a truly potent HP to drop them to freezing, the Gulf SST is still WELL above normal. Shifted east? With a -EPO? Nah. I predict 3 more freezes here in Houston, wouldnt say thats a 'zone 10 winter'

[A.V.]

You're calling a winter cancel before the Winter Solstice. You dont expect anyone to take you seriously do you?

It was a direct shot with an average HP, crossed at 1035 MB. Galveston and areas along the coast would take a truly potent HP to drop them to freezing, the Gulf SST is still WELL above normal. Shifted east? With a -EPO? Nah. I predict 3 more freezes here in Houston, wouldnt say thats a 'zone 10 winter'

That 'average HP' brought legendary cold to the Midwest, and even gave Dallas a sub 30F day. Even South Texas, nearly in the tropics, is seeing a sub 50F day. This was a powerful arctic blast aimed straight at Texas, and Houston still barely dropped below freezing; true cold just isn't happening. Other arctic blasts this season won't be as centered on Texas, as you can see with the map I posted; thus, the blasts won't be as direct, and temps will be warmer. It doesn't matter if the solstice hasn't happened yet, the meteorlogical patterns don't necessarily follow; I thought weather experts agreed on that distinction.

Even if Houston sees 3 more freezes, if there are no temps below 30F, then the winter is Zone 10.