Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Golf7270]

Allan Huffman made a good tweet a few minutes ago about pattern and possibilities. Still ways out in lala land

[harp]

Allan Huffman made a good tweet a few minutes ago about pattern and possibilities. Still ways out in lala land

Can you share??

[Ntxw]

Been busy with traveling for the new years so haven't posted in a bit.

I don't see see any changes in the prior thinking. I think 1984-1985 lays a good foundation. The pattern is doing pretty much what we expected. Admittedly this period went more eastward than southward, but poleward ridge did shift the pattern and colder shots of air came.

Retrogression is the next key and EPS/GEFS do just that. As it retrogrades the cold core anomalies will shift to the middle of the country.

So hang in there guys! The MJO is slow so things have moved extremely slow, but steady wins the race when it does happen it will be rewarding. I don't believe we have yet seen the coldest/snowiest period of the winter yet.

[Iceresistance]

Been busy with traveling for the new years so haven't posted in a bit.

I don't see see any changes in the prior thinking. I think 1984-1985 lays a good foundation. The pattern is doing pretty much what we expected. Admittedly this period went more eastward than southward, but poleward ridge did shift the pattern and colder shots of air came.

Retrogression is the next key and EPS/GEFS do just that. As it retrogrades the cold core anomalies will shift to the middle of the country.

So hang in there guys! The MJO is slow so things have moved extremely slow, but steady wins the race when it does happen it will be rewarding. I don't believe we have yet seen the coldest/snowiest period of the winter yet.

I'm thinking that it will happen in February, just like last winter, except that this time, the extreme cold wave may be even stronger because it may counter the Record Highs in December 2021.

[Brent]

Been busy with traveling for the new years so haven't posted in a bit.

I don't see see any changes in the prior thinking. I think 1984-1985 lays a good foundation. The pattern is doing pretty much what we expected. Admittedly this period went more eastward than southward, but poleward ridge did shift the pattern and colder shots of air came.

Retrogression is the next key and EPS/GEFS do just that. As it retrogrades the cold core anomalies will shift to the middle of the country.

So hang in there guys! The MJO is slow so things have moved extremely slow, but steady wins the race when it does happen it will be rewarding. I don't believe we have yet seen the coldest/snowiest period of the winter yet.

Oh for sure it is early January plenty and usually the best of winter ahead

[orangeblood]

Been busy with traveling for the new years so haven't posted in a bit.

I don't see see any changes in the prior thinking. I think 1984-1985 lays a good foundation. The pattern is doing pretty much what we expected. Admittedly this period went more eastward than southward, but poleward ridge did shift the pattern and colder shots of air came.

Retrogression is the next key and EPS/GEFS do just that. As it retrogrades the cold core anomalies will shift to the middle of the country.

So hang in there guys! The MJO is slow so things have moved extremely slow, but steady wins the race when it does happen it will be rewarding. I don't believe we have yet seen the coldest/snowiest period of the winter yet.

I'm thinking that it will happen in February, just like last winter, except that this time, the extreme cold wave may be even stronger because it may counter the Record Highs in December 2021.

Really bullish signs are pointing towards 2nd half of January, the most extreme cold on the entire planet pointed directly towards a large part of the lower 48

[Ntxw]

Been busy with traveling for the new years so haven't posted in a bit.

I don't see see any changes in the prior thinking. I think 1984-1985 lays a good foundation. The pattern is doing pretty much what we expected. Admittedly this period went more eastward than southward, but poleward ridge did shift the pattern and colder shots of air came.

Retrogression is the next key and EPS/GEFS do just that. As it retrogrades the cold core anomalies will shift to the middle of the country.

So hang in there guys! The MJO is slow so things have moved extremely slow, but steady wins the race when it does happen it will be rewarding. I don't believe we have yet seen the coldest/snowiest period of the winter yet.

I'm thinking that it will happen in February, just like last winter, except that this time, the extreme cold wave may be even stronger because it may counter the Record Highs in December 2021.

Really bullish signs are pointing towards 2nd half of January, the most extreme cold on the entire planet pointed directly towards a large part of the lower 48

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1641470400/1642852800-Cv3pPLB0ins.png

I do like the look because the MJO now fully supports it. We have a full fledged dateline bloom of convection. We are entering a period where tropical forcing is very El Nino like. SOI has hovered much lower than in December. El Nino forcing favors back half winters. It's been very weird since 2018. Where the El Nino's (18-19, 19/20) behaved more like La Nina while the La Ninas have behaved more like El Nino.

Which is why the analogs of cold front end/back end hasn't matched ENSO.

[orangeblood]

I'm thinking that it will happen in February, just like last winter, except that this time, the extreme cold wave may be even stronger because it may counter the Record Highs in December 2021.

Really bullish signs are pointing towards 2nd half of January, the most extreme cold on the entire planet pointed directly towards a large part of the lower 48

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1641470400/1642852800-Cv3pPLB0ins.png

I do like the look because the MJO now fully supports it. We have a full fledged dateline bloom of convection. We are entering a period where tropical forcing is very El Nino like. SOI has hovered much lower than in December. El Nino forcing favors back half winters. It's been very weird since 2018. Where the El Nino's (18-19, 19/20) behaved more like La Nina while the La Ninas have behaved more like El Nino.

Which is why the analogs of cold front end/back end hasn't matched ENSO.

Mid-month looks really juicy on both Euro and GFS Ops, PV swinging south with Sub Jet entering picture

[harp]

Yes, but will there be moisture with for us folks in SE Texas and south Louisiana? That is my question….

[Brent]

Yes, but will there be moisture with for us folks in SE Texas and south Louisiana? That is my question….

So far can't even get real moisture up here and were plenty cold not even above freezing today. That's my issue right now but it is early January

[Cpv17]

Yes, but will there be moisture with for us folks in SE Texas and south Louisiana? That is my question….

Possibly. The subtropical jet looks to be active over the next couple weeks or so but remember we need the cold first. Rain chances for me and you look pretty good the next couple weeks.

[Yukon Cornelius]

22 with a windchill of 5 at 11:00. I love days like this.

We're still sitting at low 40's in Killeen-Temple. What's the low temp going to be over there?

I think around 12-15 is the last I saw.

[Iceresistance]

Really bullish signs are pointing towards 2nd half of January, the most extreme cold on the entire planet pointed directly towards a large part of the lower 48

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1641470400/1642852800-Cv3pPLB0ins.png

I do like the look because the MJO now fully supports it. We have a full fledged dateline bloom of convection. We are entering a period where tropical forcing is very El Nino like. SOI has hovered much lower than in December. El Nino forcing favors back half winters. It's been very weird since 2018. Where the El Nino's (18-19, 19/20) behaved more like La Nina while the La Ninas have behaved more like El Nino.

Which is why the analogs of cold front end/back end hasn't matched ENSO.

Mid-month looks really juicy on both Euro and GFS Ops, PV swinging south with Sub Jet entering picture

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1641470400/1642334400-zRSVK81sbKU.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1641470400/1642334400-gG6aOLKTp2A.png

One extra thing to note is the PNA is going to be basically Neutral in that time period as well.

[bubba hotep]

I'm thinking that it will happen in February, just like last winter, except that this time, the extreme cold wave may be even stronger because it may counter the Record Highs in December 2021.

Really bullish signs are pointing towards 2nd half of January, the most extreme cold on the entire planet pointed directly towards a large part of the lower 48

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1641470400/1642852800-Cv3pPLB0ins.png

I do like the look because the MJO now fully supports it. We have a full fledged dateline bloom of convection. We are entering a period where tropical forcing is very El Nino like. SOI has hovered much lower than in December. El Nino forcing favors back half winters. It's been very weird since 2018. Where the El Nino's (18-19, 19/20) behaved more like La Nina while the La Ninas have behaved more like El Nino.

Which is why the analogs of cold front end/back end hasn't matched ENSO.

SOI has likely peaked with a Dec value of 12.99 (Fun fact, my high brow educated self used to discount the SOI until reading Ntxw's post on SOI on this board over the years). Maybe Nina has peaked? One thing the longer range ensembles from last week missed, when rolled forward, was the emergence of the subtropical jet and the associated moisture feed. However, they did see the coming temporary warming in our source region, so there won't be as much cold to pair with this moisture. However, give me this any day:

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is surprisingly similar to 12z GFS, I expected that to go away.

[Iceresistance]

This is highly Unusual, but the 18z GEFS has several members for snow across the Southern Plains in the same general timeframe in the long range (At least between January 20th & January 23rd)

[Brent]

18z GFS is surprisingly similar to 12z GFS, I expected that to go away.

Big cold snap next weekend on TV just now... No precip but he did mention that timeframe needs to be watched going into the following week

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is surprisingly similar to 12z GFS, I expected that to go away.

Big cold snap next weekend on TV just now... No precip but he did mention that timeframe needs to be watched going into the following week

There is merit to the theat. Discussed above on SOI, when it has significant drops relative to base you can expect something to come through the southern US out of the southwest (STJ). It's a pretty good correlation. And, at least on the models, some cold is trying to come in. If the two hook up you can set up a winter storm.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is surprisingly similar to 12z GFS, I expected that to go away.

Big cold snap next weekend on TV just now... No precip but he did mention that timeframe needs to be watched going into the following week

There is merit to the theat. Discussed above on SOI, when it has significant drops relative to base you can expect something to come through the southern US out of the southwest (STJ). It's a pretty good correlation. And, at least on the models, some cold is trying to come in. If the two hook up you can set up a winter storm.

KFOR has already mentioned there could be one Next Weekend, they are watching very closely.

[orangeblood]

Really bullish signs are pointing towards 2nd half of January, the most extreme cold on the entire planet pointed directly towards a large part of the lower 48

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1641470400/1642852800-Cv3pPLB0ins.png

I do like the look because the MJO now fully supports it. We have a full fledged dateline bloom of convection. We are entering a period where tropical forcing is very El Nino like. SOI has hovered much lower than in December. El Nino forcing favors back half winters. It's been very weird since 2018. Where the El Nino's (18-19, 19/20) behaved more like La Nina while the La Ninas have behaved more like El Nino.

Which is why the analogs of cold front end/back end hasn't matched ENSO.

SOI has likely peaked with a Dec value of 12.99 (Fun fact, my high brow educated self used to discount the SOI until reading Ntxw's post on SOI on this board over the years). Maybe Nina has peaked? One thing the longer range ensembles from last week missed, when rolled forward, was the emergence of the subtropical jet and the associated moisture feed. However, they did see the coming temporary warming in our source region, so there won't be as much cold to pair with this moisture. However, give me this any day:

https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022010612/240/qpf_acc.conus.png

Strange winter so far and have a feeling it’s about the get even weirder…there are very few, if any analogs, for a Dying La Niña /Easterly QBO winter. Almost uncharted territory for remainder of winter