Texas Winter 2015-2016

[dhweather]

12Z GFS rolling in - might be too warm in the metroplex.

[Ntxw]

Gfs is caving to the Euro

[stormlover2013]

didn't euro have it cold??

[Ntxw]

didn't euro have it cold??

Yes the euro is colder, GFS is warmer because it has more moisture return but both are oh so close. It definitely is a better confidence now especially if the euro continues.

[orangeblood]

didn't euro have it cold??

Yes, the Euro is much colder....temps in the upper 20's as precip moves through on Sunday night/Early Monday morning

[wxman57]

This really doesn't appear to be much of an Arctic front. Lowest temps in the low teens in Kansas?? That's not very cold for winter. Now if the models were forecasting sub-zero temps in Oklahoma, that would be a more significant Arctic front. This is more of a moderate Canadian front that MIGHT produce a light freeze down to SE TX.

[Ralph's Weather]

For Monday the GEM is dry with the low up in KS ans temps near 20. The GEM does have the low staying further south than the GFS and Euro on Sat indicating maybe some sleet to end the precip Sat.

[hriverajr]

This really doesn't appear to be much of an Arctic front. Lowest temps in the low teens in Kansas?? That's not very cold for winter. Now if the models were forecasting sub-zero temps in Oklahoma, that would be a more significant Arctic front. This is more of a moderate Canadian front that MIGHT produce a light freeze down to SE TX.

I agree.. not very impressed.. have not looked at a model since yesterday morning.....

[MississippiWx]

The Upper level pattern, despite the favorable teleconnections, doesn't seem right for funneling the coldest air to the south. It appears that Texas and the rest of the Southern states will feel only the fringes of the cold. While the models are more than likely underestimating the cold a bit, I feel like this is far from any sort of major cold outbreak for anyone other than the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast.

With that said, there should be enough cold air around to keep at least the idea of wintry precip on our minds if anything in the active southern stream can become vigorous enough. Time will tell.

[Ntxw]

12z euro is warmer and drier to the east but wetter in the west. Several inches of snow out towards Abilene and western counties

[stormlover2013]

don't we love models lol

[orangeblood]

AO forecast is now off the chart.... beginning to trend into 2009-10 range

[Portastorm]

This really doesn't appear to be much of an Arctic front. Lowest temps in the low teens in Kansas?? That's not very cold for winter. Now if the models were forecasting sub-zero temps in Oklahoma, that would be a more significant Arctic front. This is more of a moderate Canadian front that MIGHT produce a light freeze down to SE TX.

I agree.. not very impressed.. have not looked at a model since yesterday morning.....

Now, now ... a certain professional meteorologist has told us repeatedly over the years to not get hung up on computer model runs more than three days out. You all are making pronouncements on a front 4-5 days out. Shouldn't we wait a day?!

[Brent]

AO forecast is now off the chart.... beginning to trend into 2009-10 range

Don't tease me with that analog...

[hriverajr]

This really doesn't appear to be much of an Arctic front. Lowest temps in the low teens in Kansas?? That's not very cold for winter. Now if the models were forecasting sub-zero temps in Oklahoma, that would be a more significant Arctic front. This is more of a moderate Canadian front that MIGHT produce a light freeze down to SE TX.

I agree.. not very impressed.. have not looked at a model since yesterday morning.....

Now, now ... a certain professional meteorologist has told us repeatedly over the years to not get hung up on computer model runs more than three days out. You all are making pronouncements on a front 4-5 days out. Shouldn't we wait a day?!

haha I guess we will see... I still think peeps way back east are going to be real disappointed for the most part this winter. I hope the front is stronger, but all the models have gradually trended a bit away from really cold air.. Most cold air heads east and then goes poof. We need decent high pressure to get a good cold air intrusion into Texas, and at this point no signs of that.

Looking at water vapor loop, and 500 mb flow still no signs of amplification, better start soon or will be nada in four days.

I sincerely hope I am wrong

[Ntxw]

The AO hasn't been that negative since 09-10 so it would be similar in that regard. AO for here is a good sign for snow and persistent chill. Interesting to see if that will verify

Don't let the heat miser fool you, it may not be bitter cold, but it's not sunny sweet weather either to his liking . Sites across Texas are running below normal despite the not so frigid lows

[orangeblood]

The AO hasn't been that negative since 09-10 so it would be similar in that regard. AO for here is a good sign for snow and persistent chill. Interesting to see if that will verify

The GFS teleconnections and surface depictions makes no sense with itself, the model is useless after day 4 it appears

[Ralph's Weather]

Why are we only getting a 1025-1030 mb high out of the early week Arctic blast? I know the -EPO is not super strong, but I would have expected around 1030-1035 mb. Either way with cloud cover and some precip temps will not likely get much above freezing on Monday over northern Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Why are we only getting a 1025-1030 mb high out of the early week Arctic blast? I know the -EPO is not super strong, but I would have expected around 1030-1035 mb. Either way with cloud cover and some precip temps will not likely get much above freezing on Monday over northern Texas.

Exactly what i was saying earlier.

[Ralph's Weather]

Why are we only getting a 1025-1030 mb high out of the early week Arctic blast? I know the -EPO is not super strong, but I would have expected around 1030-1035 mb. Either way with cloud cover and some precip temps will not likely get much above freezing on Monday over northern Texas.

Exactly what i was saying earlier.

I think I have heard that El Nino may dampen the highs some but not sure how that works. It is not a massive -EPO, but around -1 or 2 I would expect it to give us some decent Arctic air especially coupled with a -3 AO. That strongly negative AO will continue to crash into -4 to maybe as low as -6 by late next week. NAO is also going negative next week and the PNA is falling to near neutral. All of these are good signs for cold and snow in Texas.