Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Edwards Limestone]

[txtwister78]

[Ntxw]

GFS is still draining that cold to the east too quickly, but definitely a step in the right direction. The question is how far west could this go? If we get a sharp cutter from Waco to Fayetteville, to Des Moines followed by a secondary storm in south Texas then everyone wins. Doubt we get that lucky though lol

2009 track shifted 100 miles south.

[harp]

Coastal storm is gone on this run.

[Iceresistance]

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-0p25-all/pna/t_series/1671192000-PoODv8wCpDggrb2.png

Still insisting on the +PNA?

It can wait until after Christmas so it can launch it's attack on the Strat PV while I can go to Missouri!

[orangeblood]

Coming into Hi Res range now...Temps and HP are building just as advertised by the Globals into NW Canada. With the Negative EPO and flow directly out of the Arctic, we know this extremely cold/dense air is coming south. Once it dislodges from NW Canada, it almost always takes the path of least resistance which is directly down the Central Plains to GOM. Upper level forecasts should follow suit, once it pin points where this cold/dense air is headed.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/alaska/t2m_f/1671192000/1671494400-pXntNPB5kfA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/alaska/mslp/1671192000/1671494400-gmv2DfpPro4.png

Surface analysis shows the big HP has crossed over from Siberia. Should strengthen as the -EPO goes poleward.

https://i.imgur.com/pBw6hHL.gif

And it appears to come in two stages...one piece comes down on Tuesday with the more potent piece on Thursday. Both are still probably underestimated looking at the strength of the HPs, snowpack and time of year.

Latest GFS forecasting a record breaking US HP with the 2nd piece inside 6 days

[Quixotic]

I’m offering counseling for those on the model swing roller coaster.

[Iceresistance]

I’m offering counseling for those on the model swing roller coaster.

I'm fine, I was prepared for it!

[TheProfessor]

The 12z Ukie would be a blizzard here. Probably still too far north though.

[Iceresistance]

The 12z Ukie would be a blizzard here. Probably still too far north though.

Pivotal Weather just caught in range of the 12z UKMET's Blue Norther and Blizzard.

[CaptinCrunch]

Lite grapple falling in Arlington

[EnnisTx]

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS makes another Blue Norther for New Years 2023! Not as intense compared to the one that is coming next week.

[Ntxw]

If we want to count who was first, it was the Ukmet's 500mb that caught it yesterday. It's the almost ideal trajectory.

I know these are single suite of trends but as TheProfessor noted if they are real and we are now inside 7 days, one must consider blizzard with the cold.

[Ntxw]

FWIW love seeing the ridge shoot up the east coast, melting their hearts and dreams, panic attacks out there. The more it does, the colder and snowier we get.

[TheProfessor]

If we want to count who was first, it was the Ukmet's 500mb that caught it yesterday. It's the almost ideal trajectory.

Like I said it's probably too far north still, however it's precip shield is expansive. Shift all that snow from Iowa southwest into Kansas and all the snow in Kansas to Texas and we all win. Definitely something to watch.

[Ntxw]

If we want to count who was first, it was the Ukmet's 500mb that caught it yesterday. It's the almost ideal trajectory.

Like I said it's probably too far north still, however it's precip shield is expansive. Shift all that snow from Iowa southwest into Kansas and all the snow in Kansas to Texas and we all win. Definitely something to watch.

Would agree 1060HP is kind of scary, suppression depression. We're usually happpy with 1045-1050+ as a good goldilocks zone for snow. It will travel whatever the southern extent of the gradient is, which models always underestimate in such blasts.

[Iceresistance]

FWIW love seeing the ridge shoot up the east coast, melting their hearts and dreams, panic attacks out there. The more it does, the colder and snowier we get.

Many Plains Snow lovers when they see this:

(Sorry, I could not resist this)

[Ntxw]

FWIW love seeing the ridge shoot up the east coast, melting their hearts and dreams, panic attacks out there. The more it does, the colder and snowier we get.

Many Plains Snow lovers when they see this:

(Sorry, I could not resist this)

Would feel sorry for them but in January and February they always somehow get 10-20 inches from a random noreaster. .

[Iceresistance]

FWIW love seeing the ridge shoot up the east coast, melting their hearts and dreams, panic attacks out there. The more it does, the colder and snowier we get.

Many Plains Snow lovers when they see this:

(Sorry, I could not resist this)

Would feel sorry for them but in January and February they always somehow get 10-20 inches from a random noreaster. .

I've been noticing this trend on the Canadian lately, look to the Northeast towards Maine and towards the west towards California!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gem_z500a_us_fh150_trend.gif