Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

Euro looks good, but is way too progressive with moving out the cold, with that kind of winter storm, that snowpack would keep temps very cold for an extended period

[txtwister78]

Euro doesn't have the immediate cold shot after like the other OPs. Warms up late week.

Buuuut...the blocking up north is ridiculous. More cold pooling in Pac NW.

Yeah seems a little too fast with that warm up considering the amount of cold around. Tough to pull off when you have that type of arctic air delivery especially if you put some snow/ice down on top of it.

GFS really flipped the script on that 0z run.

[Ntxw]

Stage is set. The rest of this week upstream will continue to add snow cover. Friday's system will lay down another piece of white carpet for the cold.

[txtwister78]

Euro Control and Ensemble definitely becoming more aligned with operational now in terms of precip behind the boundary (trending that way). Still don't think the cold air advancement is fast enough further south into Texas. Euro still has some catching up to do I think as we get closer regarding that. That will make all the difference assuming we continue to get this setup/signal for precipitation.

[Tammie]

I haven’t seen generators talked about yet, so just wanted to remind folks that Harbor Freight has them in stock. They have a 90 day refund policy with a 10% restock fee. We returned one in ‘21 and ‘22 unused (thankfully), and they did not charge us the restock fee because neither box had been opened. Sherman TX received a shipment of 4 yesterday morning that was large enough to keep our heat and fridge running. Hubby got there about 11:00 and got the next to the last one. If your store is out of stock, check surrounding cities. We found two more locations within 30 miles of us. Worth that 10% restocking fee just to be prepared imo.

[Tammie]

Where’s my favorite Houston cyclist?

We live a few miles south of the Red River. I saw a bicyclist heading up Highway 75 toward OK Monday afternoon. He was towing behind him, a small cart with rocks, bricks, and sheet metal(?). I could not see his face because he was wearing a welding mask. Could this be the mysterious Houston cyclist you’re referring to????

[Brent]

Snow band moving in here for an hour or so maybe a dusting if we're lucky

That wind is something else

[Wthrfan]

Light dusting occurring at the moment in Edmond.

[Brent]

[HockeyTx82]

FWD is not sold on precip next week, sorry kiddos.....

.LONG TERM... /Issued 419 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2024/
/Late Week and This Weekend/

Another strong shortwave trough will move east across
Nebraska/Kansas and into the Mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday
night, before another strong trough organizes across the Desert
Southwest on Thursday. This storm system will exit out over the
region Thursday night and early Friday and will support another
strong surface cold front through the forecast area. The front
should clear the area by, or shortly after, daybreak Friday
morning. In advance of the vigorous mid level disturbance and cold
front, a 40-50 kt LLJ will help draw modified surface dew point
temperatures mostly in the 50s across far eastern North Texas into
eastern Central Texas Thursday night. The far southeast counties
may even see dew points briefly hit 60 degrees before the strong
cold front shunts it east and southeast out of these areas. An
axis of more moisture-rich air will be anchored from the Ark-La-
Tex southwest into Southeast Texas with a tight gradient of
convective rain chances as far west as I-35/35W.

Though the fast-moving cold front and dense airmass will undercut
most of the showers and storms making them primarily elevated, a
few surface-based storms are possible across our far eastern
counties. The marginal dew point temperatures combined with
relatively "cool" surface temperatures at night in the upper 50s
and lower 60s will only yield SB/MLCAPE values briefly around 500
J/KG later in the evening through midnight. However, fairly steep
lapse rates between 7-8 deg C/km will coincide with strong,
unidirectional west-southwesterly 65-75 kt deep layer shear.
These values can be attributed to a 100 kt+, jet max at at 500mb
ripping across South-Central Texas to the Upper Texas Coast.
Strong ageostrophic ascent via the left exit region will
juxtapose with the environmental set up to produce a few strong
to severe storm clusters or even a "line echo wave pattern" (or
LEWPs) containing hail and very gusty to damaging winds. The one
saving grace could be the time of day, limited surface-based
instability, and progressive nature of the synoptic features or
kinematics (cold front, shortwave, jet max, etc). Due to the more
straight-line type of hodograph and 0-1km wind fields paralleling
the intense winds aloft, any tornado threat will remain east of
our zones, though certainly a brief meso-low would need to be
monitored for closely.

In wake of this first strong cold front, low temperatures Friday
morning will start off quite chilly and range from the mid to
upper 20s across North Texas to the lower to mid 30s across
Central Texas. These chilly values combined with the very
blustery and gusty northwest winds 20 to 30 mph will yield
morning wind chill values from the single digits in the Red River
Valley, to the teens across the I-20 corridor, to the lower 20s
in eastern Central Texas. High temperatures Friday afternoon will
only reach into the 40s for all but the lower 50s across eastern
Central Texas. A chilly start to next weekend indeed with only a
brief modification with weak southerly flow Saturday and much of
Sunday. Lows will start off crisp in the 20s to mid 30s within the
dry airmass in place, but warm between the mid-upper 40s in North
Texas to the mid-upper 50s across Central Texas each afternoon.

However, the warm up will be short-lived as an even stronger and
colder arctic cold front arrives late Sunday into Monday. Better
lift and precipitation chances (sorry kiddos) should remain north
and east of our area where a strong shortwave and isentropic
ascent lifts from the Central Plains into the Ozarks and Mid
Mississippi Valley Sunday night into early morning next Monday.
Couldn`t rule out a few sprinkles or flurries across the far
eastern counties, but ensembles point to mostly a cold, blustery,
and dry forecast. What is certain is this will be quite the cold
airmass as noted by the 1040mb surface high center across the
Central High Plains. Lows Monday morning will range between the
lower teens to lower 20s across our far southeast counties.
Despite plentiful sunshine and associated insolation, as is always
the case with dense arctic airmasses, this environment will have
little impact on warming up afternoon temperatures with highs
struggling to reach or exceed freezing for all but eastern
Central Texas where lower-mid 30s are possible, but not
necessarily likely.

Just remember to wear layers on those chilly and blustery cold
days, as this is the best way to insulate one`s self. Also,
dripping faucets with warm water may save you the grief of a burst
water main or pipes in your home or building. Covering outdoor
faucets and turning off sprinklers wouldn`t be a bad idea either.
Stay warm North and Central Texas!

05/Marty

[orangeblood]

10 day averages on the CMC Ensembles starting Sunday.... the expanse of these anomalies is really really impressive, downside is major strain on US Energy infrastructure. Nat Gas Futures will be interesting to follow this week!!!

[Ntxw]

6z GFS going to Euro. Icon is stronger with the western system. Odds of a sig winter storm with the Arctic front is getting louder.

12z soon.

[orangeblood]

Also as was discussed back in December, the Strat Warm event that occurred early December gave us a great hint for January. Well look was is lurking mid month...

another SW event and possible precursor that this will extend will into February ??

[Ntxw]

10 day averages on the CMC Ensembles starting Sunday.... the expanse of these anomalies is really really impressive, downside is major strain on US Energy infrastructure. Nat Gas Futures will be interesting to follow this week!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_10day/1704758400/1706140800-7fQaaAjUUpw.png

Natgas has been spiking already. Getting concerned for the grid, especially with how the models are trending towards a winter storm for the state. We have a ways to go and it won't take much with that much cold. If the Euro slows down anymore this could end up a blockbuster.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

10 day averages on the CMC Ensembles starting Sunday.... the expanse of these anomalies is really really impressive, downside is major strain on US Energy infrastructure. Nat Gas Futures will be interesting to follow this week!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_10day/1704758400/1706140800-7fQaaAjUUpw.png

Natgas has been spiking already. Getting concerned for the grid, especially with how the models are trending towards a winter storm for the state. We have a ways to go and it won't take much with that much cold. If the Euro slows down anymore this could end up a blockbuster.

Another 2021 won’t harm the grid. But if we enter 1983 territory, you could see rolling blackouts.

[orangeblood]

6z GFS going to Euro. Icon is stronger with the western system. Odds of a sig winter storm with the Arctic front is getting louder.

12z soon.

GFS Ens has low confidence right now...it's a fairly small S/W coming thru the North Pacific that the Euro is banking on for this storm, have low confidence in this one at this point IMHO

[TeamPlayersBlue]

10 day averages on the CMC Ensembles starting Sunday.... the expanse of these anomalies is really really impressive, downside is major strain on US Energy infrastructure. Nat Gas Futures will be interesting to follow this week!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_10day/1704758400/1706140800-7fQaaAjUUpw.png

Natgas has been spiking already. Getting concerned for the grid, especially with how the models are trending towards a winter storm for the state. We have a ways to go and it won't take much with that much cold. If the Euro slows down anymore this could end up a blockbuster.

Another 2021 won’t harm the grid. But if we enter 1983 territory, you could see rolling blackouts.

The grid became very close to the brink in Dec '22. I believe it went into emergency mode. Lets hope they made the proper upgrades to facilities.

[Ntxw]

6z GFS going to Euro. Icon is stronger with the western system. Odds of a sig winter storm with the Arctic front is getting louder.

12z soon.

GFS Ens has low confidence right now...it's a fairly small S/W coming thru the North Pacific that the Euro is banking on for this storm, have low confidence in this one at this point IMHO

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1704780000/1705320000-VPYdE5B2eRk.png

It's upstream with diving energy that plays with the s/w. We are also in an El Nino, 250mb anomaly shows STJ is very much active.

[nathanc1969]

San Angelo NWS on board....but no precip:

An arctic airmass will be building to our north late this week,
especially behind the next storm system, the surface high pressure
will be 1040+ over the northern Rockies by this weekend. The
teleconnections with a negative NAO/AO favors the very cold airmass
to dive south across the central and southeast CONUS this weekend
and next week, including into the Southern Plains. The arctic
cold front will move south across our area on Sunday with
temperatures falling 20 to 30 degrees shortly after frontal
passage. Lows by Monday and Tuesday mornings will be in the lower
to mid teens across much of the area with wind chills a few
degrees below zero north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. Highs
will only recover into the 30s to lower 40s Monday afternoon. Now
is the time to prepare for the much colder weather next week and
stay up to date with the latest forecast. Going with a dry
forecast through the long term.

[Ntxw]

Even though the Euro OP didn't favor it, EPS has the secondary cold surge late next week centered ~20th. Might be another chance at winter precip.