Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

PORTA - Why north Texas? None of our local mets are giving us any hope of anything but rain.

Sorry, I should have clarified. At this point, I think the real threat is for areas west of the I-35 corridor. I think it's going to be real, real close in the DFW Metroplex with temps.

But as I believe Ralph's Weather said earlier, now is the time we look at real time data (for temps and if they're lining up with guidance) and the short range models like the SREF and NAM12 and HRRR.

[Portastorm]

Don't look now, but that HP is so strong its pulling the low pressure system further south based on WV imagery. What does this mean???? For the cold air??? If the storm ejects further south?? Then what? Wxman? Porta?

Further south than what? Are you looking at satellite and determining its (the low) location and comparing it to some model runs?

[dhweather]

I don't think that this is going to rival the November cold snap. Maybe one or two lows right at or just below freezing.

You would think a 1060MB high would rival the historical strong events, like 1989. This one is not remotely close. I think I hear Dolly Parton coming.

[davidiowx]

I don't think that this is going to rival the November cold snap. Maybe one or two lows right at or just below freezing.

You would think a 1060MB high would rival the historical strong events, like 1989. This one is not remotely close. I think I hear Dolly Parton coming.

It is quite mind-boggling to be honest. Such a massive HP and we won't even see freezing temps..

[Portastorm]

I don't think that this is going to rival the November cold snap. Maybe one or two lows right at or just below freezing.

You would think a 1060MB high would rival the historical strong events, like 1989. This one is not remotely close. I think I hear Dolly Parton coming.

Well, to be fair, what happened in December 1989 and the current synoptic pattern are very different. In 1989 high pressure built straight down into Texas and there was not a strong and wet southwest flow like there is now. But I do agree that if even the high coming down into Montana is 1050+ mb, you'd think we would see colder temperatures than what is currently being forecast. If guidance verifies then this will be a good lesson for all of us from which to learn.

[dhweather]

I honestly expected to see lows in the upper teens/low twenties, and it doesn't appear we will even sniff that. Mind boggling.

[ronyan]

I wasn't impressed with the source region when the Arctic high started building South. Not that cold for Canada in late Dec.

[TexasF6]

Don't look now, but that HP is so strong its pulling the low pressure system further south based on WV imagery. What does this mean???? For the cold air??? If the storm ejects further south?? Then what? Wxman? Porta?

Further south than what? Are you looking at satellite and determining its (the low) location and comparing it to some model runs?

Yes Porta! My ProMet friend in Miami told me to check out how strong the HP was as its pulling the low a bit further south? I guess I should check models now....

[Snowman67]

I don't think that this is going to rival the November cold snap. Maybe one or two lows right at or just below freezing.

You would think a 1060MB high would rival the historical strong events, like 1989. This one is not remotely close. I think I hear Dolly Parton coming.

Well, to be fair, what happened in December 1989 and the current synoptic pattern are very different. In 1989 high pressure built straight down into Texas and there was not a strong and wet southwest flow like there is now. But I do agree that if even the high coming down into Montana is 1050+ mb, you'd think we would see colder temperatures than what is currently being forecast. If guidance verifies then this will be a good lesson for all of us from which to learn.

Good point Porta. I would like to know what factors determine whether the cold air is dense enough to undercut/plow through a wsw flow aloft. I would have thought that a 1050+ mb would have done the trick. The weather never ceases to amaze.

[Portastorm]

Temp has dropped about 5 degrees in the last 2 hours here in Lubbock (25 now). Drizzle has already started, which seems quite a bit earlier than most were expecting.

I'm seeing some reports on Twitter that the Lubbock area roads are getting worse due to a glaze of ice. Be safe out there!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Just noticed that Wichita county has reissued a Special Weather Statement after taking us out of it yesterday. A Winter Weather advisory could possibly be issued later today I'm being told. I guess now all I can do is wait and see what happens.

[weatherguy425]

Temp has dropped about 5 degrees in the last 2 hours here in Lubbock (25 now). Drizzle has already started, which seems quite a bit earlier than most were expecting.

I'm seeing some reports on Twitter that the Lubbock area roads are getting worse due to a glaze of ice. Be safe out there!

The classic ' light enough for people to dismiss, but heavy enough to create a glaze of ice. Main issue has been on bridges/overpasses thus far. Working in local TV, it appears to be a busy few days as temperatures stay WELL below freezing.

[Ralph's Weather]

I don't think that this is going to rival the November cold snap. Maybe one or two lows right at or just below freezing.

You would think a 1060MB high would rival the historical strong events, like 1989. This one is not remotely close. I think I hear Dolly Parton coming.

Well, to be fair, what happened in December 1989 and the current synoptic pattern are very different. In 1989 high pressure built straight down into Texas and there was not a strong and wet southwest flow like there is now. But I do agree that if even the high coming down into Montana is 1050+ mb, you'd think we would see colder temperatures than what is currently being forecast. If guidance verifies then this will be a good lesson for all of us from which to learn.

This is a very different upper air set up than some of the historical outbreaks. The high is there, but the upper air flow is taking the scenic route through the West rather than diving directly down the Plains. The physics of the dense cold air on the Plains is bringing it down here rather than it being pushed down by the upper air flow. This is allowing Pacific moisture to overrun the cold dense air while typically we see northwest flow behind these fronts which brings in much colder air aloft. I cannot recall another situation like this where we have a very dense surface air mass and a pretty warm and moist upper air flow so I am not confident in any solution. My best guess is for the surface cold to build in further east than anticipated based purely on the strength of the 1060mb high allowing freezing rain to occur a bit further east than models show.

[orangeblood]

I wasn't impressed with the source region when the Arctic high started building South. Not that cold for Canada in late Dec.

The source region was actually in Northeastern Siberia, where by the time the air began to move it was around 10-15 degrees below normal at the time. It has continued to build on its trek south but by the time it will get to Texas, it loses its upper air support by becoming disconnected from the Polar Jet....it's the only explanation I have for not packing the punch we usually see with these HPs.

[ronyan]

I wasn't impressed with the source region when the Arctic high started building South. Not that cold for Canada in late Dec.

The source region was actually in Northeastern Siberia, where by the time the air began to move it was around 10-15 degrees below normal at the time. It has continued to build on its trek south but by the time it will get to Texas, it loses its upper air support by becoming disconnected from the Polar Jet....it's the only explanation I have for not packing the punch we usually see with these HPs.

Both were factors. I only saw -20s in Canada, not terribly cold. I've seen much colder temperatures there prior to Arctic fronts in the past. Air obviously has to traverse and maintain it's intensity across Canada, as it's the proximate source region for the US (whether it originates in Siberia or not). Even if this had been a more favorable flow pattern for the high to drop straight into TX, it wouldn't have matched prior Arctic outbreaks with ~1060 HPs in my opinion.

[TexasF6]

Euro has moved the "Snow depth" lines further EAST with this latest run. Still barely crosses I-35 in Austin...........................

[TexasF6]

NCEPV2 paints a nice snowstorm on top of Central Texas for MLK Day weekend.........down the road in case Lucy pulls the football this time....uggghhh I said the "L" word......

[gatorcane]

Let's face it, the "end-of-month" significant cold air that the global models were showing to impact Texas and the Deep South from runs a couple of weeks ago just doesn't look to be materializing. Euro keeps the cold anomalies confined to the Texas Panhandle and extreme West Texas but they don't last long before modification of the airmass occurs.

[davidiowx]

I was hoping the models would come back and show some winter precip at the last second but I guess that isn't happening. Still can't believe it is 9 degrees in the panhandle and the freezing line will barely make it to Austin.

[orangeblood]

I wasn't impressed with the source region when the Arctic high started building South. Not that cold for Canada in late Dec.

The source region was actually in Northeastern Siberia, where by the time the air began to move it was around 10-15 degrees below normal at the time. It has continued to build on its trek south but by the time it will get to Texas, it loses its upper air support by becoming disconnected from the Polar Jet....it's the only explanation I have for not packing the punch we usually see with these HPs.

Both were factors. I only saw -20s in Canada, not terribly cold. I've seen much colder temperatures there prior to Arctic fronts in the past. Air obviously has to traverse and maintain it's intensity across Canada, as it's the proximate source region for the US (whether it originates in Siberia or not). Even if this had been a more favorable flow pattern for the high to drop straight into TX, it wouldn't have matched prior Arctic outbreaks with ~1060 HPs in my opinion.

Oh, I didn't expect it to match other 1060 type outbreaks but a couple of subfreezing days would've been more logical given the synoptic setup, source region, time of year, etc. Then again, this reiterates just how many factors have to come together for winter weather/arctic cold in these low latitudes.

The great thing about it being December 30th, is its only December 30th...we still have a long winter ahead, actually that Arctic HP coming down next week looks VERY intriguing.