Texas Winter 2022-2023

[txtwister78]

FWIW love seeing the ridge shoot up the east coast, melting their hearts and dreams, panic attacks out there. The more it does, the colder and snowier we get.

Rayno took some incoming for his forecast from those folks the last few days despite the models, but he has stuck to his guns and the climatology. It's definitely trending in his favor right now.

[wxman57]

Just because a particular model fits what you would like to see happen doesn't make it the correct solution. Look for trends and a consensus.

This is extremely cold/dense Arctic Air, models can't handle the 500mb flow over the top of it. They shove it east way too quickly...we've seen this song and dance over and over and over again.

I don't believe this is "wanting a certain solution" like you make it out to be, we're using historical context...models should start trending back west and southwest with the digging trough. How far, don't know yet. But they shove east too quickly is a broken record, It happens almost every winter

I'm quite aware of how Arctic air behaves vs. "normal" Canadian air. I saved a series of model forecasts from the 1993 Thanksgiving Arctic front, where the GFS tried to drive the cold air north to Oklahoma with SW upper winds. The very shallow Arctic front ended up way out in the Gulf with those SW winds aloft. However, this predicted airmass doesn't appear to be a typical shallow Arctic airmass. I've observed model soundings in Arctic air where the sub-freezing air was only a couple thousand feet deep, with much warmer air aloft. Such shallow Arctic airmasses don't "care" about upper-level winds. The air flows straight south regardless of the upper winds. However, take a look at soundings in this predicted airmass. No shallow layer of Arctic air. It's cold all the way up. Deep cold air does care about upper-level winds.

That said, the 12Z GFS & Canadian are farther west with the cold air. GFS has Houston down to 26 on Friday, then a light freeze next Saturday, followed by a warm up. Canadian is a lot colder, down to 16F in Houston Friday and 12F on Sunday. It was the cold extreme with last February's cold front. Still no cold air in northern Canada. Let's see what develops this weekend.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1603738664617508866

[PineyWoods]

It was sleeting here in Tyler at 45° only about 5 minutes though

[orangeblood]

Canadian Ensemble Mean temps for Noon this Thursday . MEAN TEMPS which are 30-35 below normal



Friday morning Mean Low Temps

[TropicalTundra]

It was sleeting here in Tyler at 45° only about 5 minutes though

42 here and rain

[Iceresistance]

Solid snowpack up to the north because of the Blizzard that is still ongoing right now.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nsm_depth_National.jpg

[bubba hotep]

Nothing can really match a big East Coast Blizzard and if I still lived up there I would be hugging the GFS.



And trying to ignore the fact that the CMC typically performs better at H5 than the GFS.

[txtwister78]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1603813594042449944

[Iceresistance]

BAMWX does not like the 12z GFS

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1603813514707361792

[EnnisTx]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1603813594042449944?s=20&t=wqRaZRyQPs1M7z5DL98uRQ

Looks like 57's wall is gone based on the picket fence comment.

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1603813594042449944?s=20&t=wqRaZRyQPs1M7z5DL98uRQ

Looks like 57's wall is gone based on the picket fence comment.

More like, literally blown away!

[harp]

BAMWX does not like the 12z GFS

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1603813514707361792?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Not right how? I wonder what he means?

[bubba hotep]

Through 96hrs, some minor but potentially significant changes on the Euro.

[South Texas Storms]

Through 96hrs, some minor but potentially significant changes on the Euro.

As expected it's trending deeper with the trough over the Rockies, just like the other 12z guidance has today.

[Iceresistance]

Through 96hrs, some minor but potentially significant changes on the Euro.

Yep, the +PNA ridge is further west and the Arctic Trough is also further west, towards us!

[Iceresistance]

This is from Yesterday, but oof!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

[Iceresistance]

1065 mb HP in Montana on the 12z Euro, what?

Also trended WAY colder compared to 0z!

[Cpv17]

1064 mb HP in Montana on the 12z Euro, what?

That’s insane for the Euro to be showing that in this range. That model is usually conservative with HP’s.

[Iceresistance]

1064 mb HP in Montana on the 12z Euro, what?

That’s insane for the Euro to be showing that in this range. That model is usually conservative with HP’s.

It just updated, now 1065, it could get even higher than that.

EDIT: Nope, 1065 is the peak in Montana. My goodness.