Texas Winter 2015-2016

[TheProfessor]

I'm liking the 0z GFS thru 240 hours and it's constant clippers it has for Ohio.

[Yukon Cornelius]

NWS has started putting snow in our forecast for Sunday night into Monday. Hopefully it stays.

[Brent]

The Euro has gone from snowy to almost totally dry across the state on Monday... just a few flurries at best it appears west and southwest of the metroplex.

The GFS which had a decent albeit cold rain earlier on Monday now barely has a few hundredths in the metro with temperatures above freezing.

CMC no precip anywhere on Monday

[Portastorm]

Winter = cancel

[wxman57]

Oops! Sorry about that. I was playing around with the data going into the model runs overnight in an attempt to warm it up a bit here in Houston next week. I did eliminate the chance of a freeze in Houston, but my actions appear to have nearly eliminated snow chances in D-FW as well. Oh well, at least you winter lovers might have a chance for a couple of light freezes between Monday & Wednesday up in the metroplex.

[EnnisTx]

Oops! Sorry about that. I was playing around with the data going into the model runs overnight in an attempt to warm it up a bit here in Houston next week. I did eliminate the chance of a freeze in Houston, but my actions appear to have nearly eliminated snow chances in D-FW as well. Oh well, at least you winter lovers might have a chance for a couple of light freezes between Monday & Wednesday up in the metroplex.

Curses!!!! we'll get you yet!!

[Ntxw]

Patience grasshoppers, it will come. He will pay up

[1900hurricane]

I got nearly two inches of rain last night at my parent's place NW of Houston, which was quite nice. Also, something of interest to note from that system were some stout right-moving supercells that were observed well offshore using KBRO radar. If that kind of setup had occurred inland, it probably would have been quite a doozy.

Link

[Ntxw]

I got nearly two inches of rain last night at my parent's place NW of Houston, which was quite nice. Also, something of interest to note from that system were some stout right-moving supercells that were observed well offshore using KBRO radar. If that kind of setup had occurred inland, it probably would have been quite a doozy.

Link

Do you think we will get a system in the S Pac like in early 2010? (oli I believe it was?) SOI went nuts in the -70s and even -80s before the parade of snowstorms across the US with the aid of the severe -AO/NAO. I know there is some activity now in the CPAC near the dateline but a twin across the equator could signal such a period.

[Tireman4]

Agree with 1900, it was quite a show last night. There was a lightning strike in Kingwood Texas( Kingwood and Humble are sister cities ..well sorta...Houston annexed Kingwood, but nevermind..LOL).


http://www.click2houston.com/news/kingw ... ing-strike

[1900hurricane]

I got nearly two inches of rain last night at my parent's place NW of Houston, which was quite nice. Also, something of interest to note from that system were some stout right-moving supercells that were observed well offshore using KBRO radar. If that kind of setup had occurred inland, it probably would have been quite a doozy.

Link

Do you think we will get a system in the S Pac like in early 2010? (oli I believe it was?) SOI went nuts in the -70s and even -80s before the parade of snowstorms across the US with the aid of the severe -AO/NAO. I know there is some activity now in the CPAC near the dateline but a twin across the equator could signal such a period.

It is possible, but I don't think it would happen until newly-christened 01C either moves out or dissipates. The ENSO base state and MJO is favorable for a SPAC tropical cyclone right now (Ula, 09C's more significant Southern Hemispheric twin, actually is still hanging around Fiji but slowly dissipating), but 01C seems to be hogging everything right now.

[Portastorm]

Besides the lack of apocalyptic Texas winter storms on the overnight computer models, I have some additional sad news. Perhaps the best forecast discussion writer (and arguably one of the best meteorologists) in the National Weather Service is leaving NWSFO Fort Worth. Yep ... I learned this morning that Dennis Cavanaugh is leaving FTW. (UPDATED) He will be going to the NWS Little Rock office. We now will enter a time of mourning.

[Ralph's Weather]

Besides the lack of apocalyptic Texas winter storms on the overnight computer models, I have some additional sad news. Perhaps the best forecast discussion writer (and arguably one of the best meteorologists) in the National Weather Service is leaving NWSFO Fort Worth. Yep ... I learned this morning that Dennis Cavanaugh is leaving FTW. Not sure where he is going yet but I definitely confirmed that he is leaving the office. We now will enter a time of mourning.

I believe he is going to Little Rock. It was sad reading what I knew would be his last one this morning. He sure was the best AFD writer I ever have read.

[gboudx]

I blame wxman57 for this.

I've noticed the AFD's have become better since Cavanaugh started, being more detailed and informative. At least he inspired the others to step up their game. He'll be missed.

[Ntxw]

Very sad to hear he will be leaving NwsFW. He will be spear heading the Little Rock office so we may be able to read those epic AFD's up there. Well deserved promotion.

[Ntxw]

Nam for Saturday (10th storm) you folks in Oklahoma and along Red River heads up. Very far south digging system and cold air coming in

[hriverajr]

Most models continue to indicate a pretty good low latitude 500 mb low traversing central and southern parts of the state next Saturday or so. I think this "might" have some possibilities for some "mischief" if it continues to show up on models. Just a possibility.

[hriverajr]

Nam for Saturday (10th storm) you folks in Oklahoma and along Red River heads up. Very far south digging system and cold air coming in

Hmm we talking about the same storm? GFS and European has it much farther south. I think

[Ntxw]

Nam for Saturday (10th storm) you folks in Oklahoma and along Red River heads up. Very far south digging system and cold air coming in

Hmm we talking about the same storm? GFS and European has it much farther south. I think

I was talking about this weekend

[weatherdude1108]

Besides the lack of apocalyptic Texas winter storms on the overnight computer models, I have some additional sad news. Perhaps the best forecast discussion writer (and arguably one of the best meteorologists) in the National Weather Service is leaving NWSFO Fort Worth. Yep ... I learned this morning that Dennis Cavanaugh is leaving FTW. Not sure where he is going yet but I definitely confirmed that he is leaving the office. We now will enter a time of mourning.

I believe he is going to Little Rock. It was sad reading what I knew would be his last one this morning. He sure was the best AFD writer I ever have read.

Bummer. I will definitely miss his weather discussion prose. But I am sure he will continue to inspire others at his new office.