Texas Winter 2015-2016

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Nam for Saturday (10th storm) you folks in Oklahoma and along Red River heads up. Very far south digging system and cold air coming in

I was looking at the same thing. Looks the the models are struggling with the evolution of this system, but appear to hint at it wrapping up and developing a trowal across southern Oklahoma and possibly the Red River Counties of north Texas.

[Ralph's Weather]

Nam for Saturday (10th storm) you folks in Oklahoma and along Red River heads up. Very far south digging system and cold air coming in

The end of the 12Z RGEM is very interesting. It has a closed 500mb low crossing N TX with an associated surface low developing over SE TX tomorrow evening and moving north through E TX. Shows much more moisture with it than other models with a general inch along the Red River and east of I-35. GFS shows similar but weaker system. GFS and NAM have less than a quarter inch of QPF. RGEM showing 3-6" of snow in SC OK as the storm wraps the thunderstorms around into the cold air. If the storm can dig into N Mexico tomorrow morning then maybe N TX can get in on some surprise snow Saturday morning.

[orangeblood]

While the GFS occasionally lacks accuracy and consistency, it sure is entertaining to follow....finally gets its MJO act together, brings winter in with a vengeance across the central/southern plains on the 12Z. FEB 2010 anyone ???

[Ralph's Weather]

While the GFS occasionally lacks accuracy and consistency, it sure is entertaining to follow....finally gets its MJO act together, brings winter in with a vengeance across the central/southern plains on the 12Z. FEB 2010 anyone ???

J/F '10 may not be a bad analog though as Ntwx alluded to some Pacific tropical activity could really get things going. All I ask for is a upper twenties temp, calm winds and 1"/hr snow rate type event.

[Brent]

While the GFS occasionally lacks accuracy and consistency, it sure is entertaining to follow....finally gets its MJO act together, brings winter in with a vengeance across the central/southern plains on the 12Z. FEB 2010 anyone ???

J/F '10 may not be a bad analog though as Ntwx alluded to some Pacific tropical activity could really get things going. All I ask for is a upper twenties temp, calm winds and 1"/hr snow rate type event.

The LR GFS is cold and very active today... I think that general idea is valid(not caught up in the individual frames for a storm). There will be storms lol.

and yes I agree on that request.

[Ntxw]

The dateline activity is encouraging, it will keep the Aleutian low at bay with the pull back. As often the case during strong ENSO events the AO is the difference maker for snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at the 12Z GFS Ensemble individuals a couple things stand out to watch for:

A wave of moisture late Monday through the state.
A few members are starting to pick up on a Gulf low throwing heavy precip into the cold air late next week as some of us have been thinking could happen. This storm looks to take the classic path all the way across the N Gulf before heading NE.

[Portastorm]

Looking at the 12Z GFS Ensemble individuals a couple things stand out to watch for:

A wave of moisture late Monday through the state.
A few members are starting to pick up on a Gulf low throwing heavy precip into the cold air late next week as some of us have been thinking could happen. This storm looks to take the classic path all the way across the N Gulf before heading NE.

I agree with y'all that given the pattern and what we're seeing in the models this far out ... next weekend's system looks intriguing.

[TheProfessor]

Oh God the 12z GFS was eye candy for me in Ohio Too bad it's been very inconsistent, but I would love for that foot of snow near the end of the run to verify.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Looking at the 12Z GFS Ensemble individuals a couple things stand out to watch for:

A wave of moisture late Monday through the state.
A few members are starting to pick up on a Gulf low throwing heavy precip into the cold air late next week as some of us have been thinking could happen. This storm looks to take the classic path all the way across the N Gulf before heading NE.

I agree with y'all that given the pattern and what we're seeing in the models this far out ... next weekend's system looks intriguing.

Even this weeekend's system looks intriguing! I think Montague, Cooke, Grayson, Denton, and Collin Counties should definitely keep an eye on it.

[wxman57]

Snow for the Dallas area at hour 360 on the 12Z GFS. I'm sure it's right this time.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Snow for the Dallas area at hour 360 on the 12Z GFS. I'm sure it's right this time.

You're laughing at that possibility, but parts of north Texas may really see snow within 48 hours.

[Ralph's Weather]

Even this weeekend's system looks intriguing! I think Montague, Cooke, Grayson, Denton, and Collin Counties should definitely keep an eye on it.

I think y'all have a good shot tomorrow night and Sat morning. Maybe more of us can get in on it if the low digs into MX. GFS advertising many more storms after this also with one ensemble member showing over 30" of snow for NE TX for the next couple weeks with a mean of 2". Gotta love a train of Gulf lows with Arctic high over the Midwest.

[dhweather]

Snow for the Dallas area at hour 360 on the 12Z GFS. I'm sure it's right this time.

Hey, it's only two weeks out!!!

[wxman57]

Snow for the Dallas area at hour 360 on the 12Z GFS. I'm sure it's right this time.

You're laughing at that possibility, but parts of north Texas may really see snow within 48 hours.

Perhaps a brief passing small snowflake near the Red River and southern OK. Low-level moisture will be extremely limited.

[EnnisTx]

Snow for the Dallas area at hour 360 on the 12Z GFS. I'm sure it's right this time.

Hey, it's only two weeks out!!!

Yea! you know it's a fact at 360 out! I'm going to believe so it has to happen!
I really would love to see a nice snow cover at the house, we did have very small flurries when they had 2-3" of snow on the ground out in Weatherford, I got up at 3:00 in the morning just to see that.....

[Brent]

Snow for the Dallas area at hour 360 on the 12Z GFS. I'm sure it's right this time.

Its gonna happen sooner or later

[gpsnowman]

If snow is flying early Monday morning, I will wake up as early as needed. It might be the only chance to see snow this winter. You never know. This strong Nino is playing tricks with overall pattern in the USA. Very strange to say the least. The effects of Nino 09-10 were totally different. That winter was one of the coldest on record and had a front/system every few days with temps not getting out of the thirties with cloud covered days. I think this winter is going to be a perfect analog winter in the making, never being seen before. Looking forward to watching the Wild Card game in Minneapolis the is weekend. Temps might be near 0 with a nasty wind chill.

[amawea]

Very sad to hear he will be leaving NwsFW. He will be spear heading the Little Rock office so we may be able to read those epic AFD's up there. Well deserved promotion.

Just talked about some flakes up here in my area on the Little Rock AFD.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
246 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. AS DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE
SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE SCATTERED. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL HOLD
STEADY OR MAY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED...WITH FOG POSSIBLE AREA
WIDE.

SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S AND
60S...BUT CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH.
AFTER A DRY DAY FRIDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH FROM TEXAS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN RETURNING. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE 30...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN FOCUS RIGHT NOW WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC LOW WILL BE TRACKING NEWD
BASICALLY UP THE I-30 TO US 67 CORRIDOR...AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL MAKE FOR A NICE SNOW SETUP ACROSS NRN ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE PUMPING OUT 3+ INCHES IN THESE AREAS...AND I AM GOING
MORE ON THE CONSERVITIVE SIDE RIGHT NOW WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST OF THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS...WITH SOME
1+ INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTHERN LOCATIONS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALSO SEE SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OF AN INCH UPWARD TO AN INCH. WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT I WOULD
ALSO EXPECT SOME FLURRIES TO FALL AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

BEYOND THIS...COLDER AIR WILL BE SETTLING INTO PLACE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH TEMPS WARMING A BIT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

[weatherdude1108]

The very last run of the 12z has single digits near DFW, and upper teens in the Austin area. I'm sure that will happen.