Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

That would be one heck of a shift.

This happened Christmas Eve 09 on a much smaller scale. El Nino +PNA medium range forecasted a midwest-east coast blizzard. Once the energy dug it kept going south and south through the Great Basin and kicked out in TX.

2009 might be a better analog than 2004 (the former actually showing up on CPC's analogs). I'd be down with that; blizzard conditions from Wichita to DFW. Southeast Kansas came away with 6-8" from that storm and of course Oklahoma was the winner.

You certainly have the big -AO but more -EPO than 2009 so a lot more cold air available.

[Ntxw]

Strangely with climo our snow signal may actually increase after Christmas (not the severe cold) because the upper pattern favors it with 500mb weakness over the US continues with high latitude blocking.

Wouldn't it be great to get a severe cold blast with a blizzard, then 32-33F ULL snows for a week or two.

[rwfromkansas]

That would be one heck of a shift.

This happened Christmas Eve 09 on a much smaller scale. El Nino +PNA medium range forecasted a midwest-east coast blizzard. Once the energy dug it kept going south and south through the Great Basin and kicked out in TX.

That would be like 1,000 miles west from what it’s showing now. That seems impossible but I guess it’s happened before.

If it were in 2-3 days I would agree. It’s only a little less than a week out, plenty of time.

[orangeblood]

That would be one heck of a shift.

This happened Christmas Eve 09 on a much smaller scale. El Nino +PNA medium range forecasted a midwest-east coast blizzard. Once the energy dug it kept going south and south through the Great Basin and kicked out in TX.

2009 might be a better analog than 2004 (the former actually showing up on CPC's analogs). I'd be down with that; blizzard conditions from Wichita to DFW. Southeast Kansas came away with 6-8" from that storm and of course Oklahoma was the winner.

Need more blocking from Northern Great Lakes to South Shore of Hudson Bay to make that happen again...it will suppress the energy more into southern rockies

[orangeblood]

Strangely with climo our snow signal may actually increase after Christmas (not the severe cold) because the upper pattern favors it with 500mb weakness over the US continues with high latitude blocking.

Wouldn't it be great to get a severe cold blast with a blizzard, then 32-33F ULL snows for a week or two.

Yep Great opportunity, will be plenty of Cold Air to tap into after this....just a matter of the upper level pattern aligning right

[Brent]

Tulsa already mentioning impactful snow in the AFD

Accordingly, the potential for impactful
snow for the heavy travel days ahead of the Christmas holiday is
still small, but it bears watching as a few ensemble members show
more significant snowfall.

[Haris]

Crazy temp gradient across Central Texas today

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Just arrived in Longview to a moderate sleet shower.

[wxman57]

Okay, who's been messing with my wall this morning? Having to send reinforcements up there today. I'll likely have to let a little of the cold air south, but I'm hopeful my wall holds the coldest of the air to our north.

Still no real cold in northern Canada. Cool-down there should happen this weekend. By early next week, we'll have a better idea what kind of airmass we'll be dealing with. The 12Z models trended colder for TX. Canadian & its ensembles (in blue) are the cold outlier - likely too cold. EC is next cold. GFS, and its and the EC's ensembles are not as cold. All indicate a hard freeze in Houston next Friday, followed by a gradual warm up (less cold up?).

[orangeblood]

To give everyone a better perspective on the potential Historical Nature of next weeks Arctic Outbreak....DFW has only reached the single digits in 3 of the past 36 winter seasons. Winter precip chances aside, Our discussion of single digits temps are in very rare territory.

[TropicalTundra]

Just arrived in Longview to a moderate sleet shower.

Any thunder included?

[Tireman4]

Okay, who's been messing with my wall this morning? Having to send reinforcements up there today. I'll likely have to let a little of the cold air south, but I'm hopeful my wall holds the coldest of the air to our north.

Still no real cold in northern Canada. Cool-down there should happen this weekend. By early next week, we'll have a better idea what kind of airmass we'll be dealing with. The 12Z models trended colder for TX. Canadian & its ensembles (in blue) are the cold outlier - likely too cold. EC is next cold. GFS, and its and the EC's ensembles are not as cold. All indicate a hard freeze in Houston next Friday, followed by a gradual warm up (less cold up?).

http://wxman57.com/images/Models12Z16.JPG

Maybe you should line all of your propane heaters northward as a next line of defense, Sir.

[Brent]

The TWC app has snow and wind for me Wednesday night and Thursday now with a balmy 16 for a high Thursday

[Iceresistance]

I just calculated the snowfall on the 12z ICON, and it's extreme to say the least, with a 50:1 ratio from the Below Zero Temperatures.

My area has 10-12 inches
Enid: 28-32 inches
Tulsa: 21-24 inches
Springfield, MO: 15-18 inches

In parts of Kansas, a .8 inch QPF of snow with a 50:1 ratio is 40 inches
Some of the totals could be slightly inflated from the December 19th-20th system.

[drred4]

Okay, who's been messing with my wall this morning? Having to send reinforcements up there today. I'll likely have to let a little of the cold air south, but I'm hopeful my wall holds the coldest of the air to our north.

Still no real cold in northern Canada. Cool-down there should happen this weekend. By early next week, we'll have a better idea what kind of airmass we'll be dealing with. The 12Z models trended colder for TX. Canadian & its ensembles (in blue) are the cold outlier - likely too cold. EC is next cold. GFS, and its and the EC's ensembles are not as cold. All indicate a hard freeze in Houston next Friday, followed by a gradual warm up (less cold up?).

http://wxman57.com/images/Models12Z16.JPG

Maybe you should line all of your propane heaters northward as a next line of defense, Sir.

I have a feeling his wall maybe geothermally heated

[rwfromkansas]

SOI slightly positive today but nicely negative the part few days.

[Iceresistance]

SOI slightly positive today but nicely negative the part few days.

We may need the SOI to be slightly positive to prevent the +PNA for a while so we can get snow.

[TheProfessor]

I just calculated the snowfall on the 12z ICON, and it's extreme to say the least, with a 50:1 ratio from the Below Zero Temperatures.

My area has 10-12 inches
Enid: 28-32 inches
Tulsa: 21-24 inches
Springfield, MO: 15-18 inches

In parts of Kansas, a .8 inch QPF of snow with a 50:1 ratio is 40 inches
Some of the totals could be slightly inflated from the December 19th-20th system.

50-1 is probably too high of a ratio, snow ratios don't always improve with colder Temps. The more important thing would be the depth of the Dendritic Growth Zone. 2500 feet is usually around 12-1, 5000 feet or longer and you start talking about 20-1. I'd need to see a skew-t to know.

[Iceresistance]

I just calculated the snowfall on the 12z ICON, and it's extreme to say the least, with a 50:1 ratio from the Below Zero Temperatures.

My area has 10-12 inches
Enid: 28-32 inches
Tulsa: 21-24 inches
Springfield, MO: 15-18 inches

In parts of Kansas, a .8 inch QPF of snow with a 50:1 ratio is 40 inches
Some of the totals could be slightly inflated from the December 19th-20th system.

50-1 is probably too high of a ratio, snow ratios don't always improve with colder Temps. The more important thing would be the depth of the Dendritic Growth Zone. 2500 feet is usually around 12-1, 5000 feet or longer and you start talking about 20-1. I'd need to see a skew-t to know.

Here you go, it's from WeatherNerds. The DGZ collapses with the arrival of snow which I find unusual compared to a very large area before it arrives.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/icon_12_135_14019887_skewt_weathernerds.png


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/icon_12_141_33978076_skewt_weathernerds.png

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1603865774732500992