Texas Winter 2017-2018

[SnowintheFalls]

I dont get excited about hurricanes hitting me 9 days out, not doing that with this system either!

On a serious note, wxman57 earlier today gave us all a warning to be prepared for something disruptive. He is a well respected met on here and when he gets serious about a threat (hurricane or winter) everyone stops to listen. Jokes aside, you just don't see him give such advice unless the threat was real.

There are circles beyond just the threads about fun and excitement as this is potentially a real problem for many travelers, many of our posters have made notice of plans. It's now more than just a curiosity, people will have to make decisions.

I agree. I posted this yesterday. The consistency has been quite palpable though. Impressive. Doesnt mean it will happen yet, but like i said earlier, i think something will happen, but im not getting too excited about the details yet. Would love for a winter storm, trust me!

I think with it being such a major travel holioday, great time for major weather outlets to start warning people of what models are showing whether they are wrong or not. Put the pride aside for sure. Could be epic.

While pride does play a role in making that call, I do know that a lot of pro mets take a lot of unnecessary heat when sounding the horn too soon. Timing can be everything when dealing with a public that doesn't truly get how difficult predicting the future can be! I have seen some of the vitriol towards our local mets when they called for something and it didn't pan out. Right or wrong, it really is a lose - lose proposition for them especially this far out.

[gboudx]

People ask questions all the time on here and they are normally answered in time. I think what starsfan65 meant that in all of the chaos happening at the moment that cold air is a given, no question. What follows is anyone's guess, but preparations could be needed for many Texans in the coming days. Too hard to pinpoint exact locations of cold and precip simultaneously. Just have to wait and see. Hey we all get excited about winter weather and the current round is important because of the Christmas holiday, including myself. According to the latest maps, travel could become very treacherous for many people next week. Just have to stayed tuned.

Yep. We’re traveling to SELA to visit family and are planning to leave on the 23rd. However we’re going to prepare to leave on the 22nd if it starts to look like it’ll be dicey on the 23rd. Right now we’re coming back on the 27th and I’ll be watching to see if the roads will be passable and if there may be more wintry weather. Just wait and read the great info here folks. I hope by Wednesday we have enough of a handle to make travel decisions.

[LeonardRay]

NWS Houston/ Galveston discussion


However, potential should increase Friday as lee cyclongenesis over
the Oklahoma Panhandle should result in the development of a new low
and trailing cold front that is on our doorstep by Friday morning.
Look for showers to develop near the front and persist for some time
in the front`s wake. This will set the stage for an unsettled period
leading up to Christmas. And while there`s fairly high confidence in
that, and generally good confidence that colder air will push into
the area, there is significant uncertainty about how that may
translate into wintry precipitation. At this point, there is so much
inconsistency both between models and between individual runs of the
same model, that it`s impossible to state much beyond that it will
be colder, there will be periods of precipitation, and some sort of
wintry precip is possible (but by no means certain!). Indeed, just
to make things more fun, the GFS doesn`t even bring the 850 front
far into our area, if at all, keeping 850 temps well above freezing
for all but our northwest. In the words of my esteemed shift
partner, this is a "warm and gross rain" scenario. Not so sure I`m
convinced about this as reality compared to the Euro, but I put it
there to illustrate that in a place where wintry weather hangs on
razor thin margins, those margins are totally swamped by range of
potential scenarios at this time. Much like in tropical season
with potential threats in the extended period, keep calm, make
sure you have a plan, and stay tuned.

[Ntxw]

It's good to see the WFOs dip their toes into it. It is a high impact forecast for a high travel period.

Really the storm will be in the Pacific northwest to be sampled by Tues/Weds which is about 3-4 days from now. But by then the event will have been close enough for watches to be warranted should the trends continue.

Unfortunately the two areas that we struggle to sample from is the Northeast Pacific and the high plateaus of Mexico . Convenient right?

[sphelps8681]

Yes I do understand that it will be cold. I was more concerned if their trip would be to dangerous for them to take.

I wonder why people don't want to ask questions. Hmmm!!

People ask questions all the time on here and they are normally answered in time. I think what starsfan65 meant that in all of the chaos happening at the moment that cold air is a given, no question. What follows is anyone's guess, but preparations could be needed for many Texans in the coming days. Too hard to pinpoint exact locations of cold and precip simultaneously. Just have to wait and see. Hey we all get excited about winter weather and the current round is important because of the Christmas holiday, including myself. According to the latest maps, travel could become very treacherous for many people next week. Just have to stayed tuned.

I do realize people are answered promptly on this site. Been here for 10 years. What I am saying is I don't think one liners like that should be the answer. Use to be that if someone could answer it should be more that. Not it will be cold. When you talk about all these models and how bad it will be some of us can't access those models you are referring to. So we are wondering how far will it go, where etc. If you don't know you don't know. I would understand and probably some others would to.

[Texas Snow]

There are over 20-30 pages on this storm alone, maybe more, where every single page talks about each model flip flopping multiple times a day to dry, snow, rain, warm, freezing rain, sleet, dry, cold and all over again the next model run. You then asked what it would be like on a single day in time, at a particular location, over a week from now. While I think this forum does a great job of answering even the simplest question (WAY better than some sports forums I follow), I think perhaps you should read a couple pages at least before asking a question like that for a forecast over a week away, as the answer to your question was obvious: no one knows. I don't believe you should feel offended at all when the poster answered the only thing that is even close to being almost certain at this time, cold.

[TexasBreeze]

Yeah this can't be good for adding guests just saying...

It is a legit question considering the big travel days ahead. It will affect my travel plans too to and from San Antonio. As far as Houston goes, the situation is much more questionable about precip type. 5 or so degrees difference matters here!

[Cpv17]

Yeah this can't be good for adding guests just saying...

It is a legit question considering the big travel days ahead. It will affect my travel plans too to and from San Antonio. As far as Houston goes, the situation is much more questionable about precip type. 5 or so degrees difference matters here!

I’m fairly certain it’ll be colder than what models are currently showing. It just about always is.

[Ntxw]

Yeah this can't be good for adding guests just saying...

It is a legit question considering the big travel days ahead. It will affect my travel plans too to and from San Antonio. As far as Houston goes, the situation is much more questionable about precip type. 5 or so degrees difference matters here!

We always advise a reminder to use your NWS forecast for official guidance especially when looking for a specific forecast. We're pretty good at translating what model outputs.

As a rule, as far as guidance shows, anyone having any plans to travel anywhere in Texas next weekend should be advised to keep tabs on the possible event unfolding.

[bubba hotep]

18Z GFS doesn't paint a pretty picture for central to NE Texas and southern Arkansas. Over 3" of freezing rain and sleet - not snow. I'd be very cautious about taking that ECMWF snowfall map at face value. I'm not sure how well it does discriminating between snow and freezing rain/sleet in these situations. I'm not aware of anywhere that I can get an ECMWF sounding as we can with the GFS. We get the full ECMWF package at work, but I don't think we can plot a sounding. However, I did promise that the DFW area would get its snow next, now that I let the rest of the state have snow last week. Would a foot be enough up there?

Again, this may more likely be a freezing rain and sleet event - quite a severe ice storm. Central to NE TX and southern Arkansas are under the gun. Not so much of a threat for SE TX this time, it appears. Still a week off, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/18ZGFS.JPG

Based on what I can see, it looks like the surface at DFW goes below freezing by 00z Sunday and then the column cools enough by 18z Sunday to change over to snow. It looks like 1.2 QPF falls total during that period with about half possibly falling as snow. The warm nose isn't very pronounced but it holds on b/w 750 and 650mb until 18z Sunday. Hard to say without a real sounding but the pre-snow precipitation is probably more sleet than freezing rain during that period.

[sphelps8681]

There are over 20-30 pages on this storm alone, maybe more, where every single page talks about each model flip flopping multiple times a day to dry, snow, rain, warm, freezing rain, sleet, dry, cold and all over again the next model run. You then asked what it would be like on a single day in time, at a particular location, over a week from now. While I think this forum does a great job of answering even the simplest question (WAY better than some sports forums I follow), I think perhaps you should read a couple pages at least before asking a question like that for a forecast over a week away, as the answer to your question was obvious: no one knows. I don't believe you should feel offended at all when the poster answered the only thing that is even close to being almost certain at this time, cold.

I have been on here since last week. Been more on the tropical weather site. New to the winter weather site. Ya'll talk in weather terms some of us don't understand. Just trying to learn and understand. Thanks for your reponse.

[Ntxw]

There are over 20-30 pages on this storm alone, maybe more, where every single page talks about each model flip flopping multiple times a day to dry, snow, rain, warm, freezing rain, sleet, dry, cold and all over again the next model run. You then asked what it would be like on a single day in time, at a particular location, over a week from now. While I think this forum does a great job of answering even the simplest question (WAY better than some sports forums I follow), I think perhaps you should read a couple pages at least before asking a question like that for a forecast over a week away, as the answer to your question was obvious: no one knows. I don't believe you should feel offended at all when the poster answered the only thing that is even close to being almost certain at this time, cold.

I have been on here since last week. Been more on the tropical weather site. New to the winter weather site. Ya'll talk in weather terms some of us don't understand. Just trying to learn and understand. Thanks for your reponse.

Yeah the winter threads tend to be a little more meteorological in nature and the terms can get confusing if you haven't been around to follow. But welcome! Any questions, feel free to ask. Starsfan is a poster of not many words , don't be offended. We're all quirky in our own ways to make us unique!

Your friends traveling to Longview might run into some poor weather conditions per the latest runs. If they can get to their destination earlier before the weekend that would be best. By early next week we should have a more definitive answer.

[starsfan65]

There are over 20-30 pages on this storm alone, maybe more, where every single page talks about each model flip flopping multiple times a day to dry, snow, rain, warm, freezing rain, sleet, dry, cold and all over again the next model run. You then asked what it would be like on a single day in time, at a particular location, over a week from now. While I think this forum does a great job of answering even the simplest question (WAY better than some sports forums I follow), I think perhaps you should read a couple pages at least before asking a question like that for a forecast over a week away, as the answer to your question was obvious: no one knows. I don't believe you should feel offended at all when the poster answered the only thing that is even close to being almost certain at this time, cold.

I have been on here since last week. Been more on the tropical weather site. New to the winter weather site. Ya'll talk in weather terms some of us don't understand. Just trying to learn and understand. Thanks for your reponse.

Yeah the winter threads tend to be a little more meteorological in nature and the terms can get confusing if you haven't been around to follow. But welcome! Any questions, feel free to ask. Starsfan is a poster of not many words , don't be offended. We're all quirky in our own ways to make us unique!

Your friends traveling to Longview might run into some poor weather conditions per the latest runs. If they can get to their destination earlier before the weekend that would be best. By early next week we should have a more definitive answer.

i want snow for Christmas!!

[bubba hotep]

It would be totally illegal, unrealistic, irresponsible, and inconsiderate to post the 15:1 ratio Euro maps but lets just say there are a bunch of 20"+ totals across DFW lol

[bevolon]

Just wanted to see when the next run is? I have been following you guys for a long time! Very seldom post. thanks in advance!

[Ntxw]

Just wanted to see when the next run is? I have been following you guys for a long time! Very seldom post. thanks in advance!

0Z GFS is next in line. Starts at 9:30pm ish and we get into range about an hour later. Canadian is also around this time. The ever important Euro is after midnight and finishes around 1am

[starsfan65]

Just wanted to see when the next run is? I have been following you guys for a long time! Very seldom post. thanks in advance!

just about 2 hours from now.

[sphelps8681]

I have been on here since last week. Been more on the tropical weather site. New to the winter weather site. Ya'll talk in weather terms some of us don't understand. Just trying to learn and understand. Thanks for your reponse.

Yeah the winter threads tend to be a little more meteorological in nature and the terms can get confusing if you haven't been around to follow. But welcome! Any questions, feel free to ask. Starsfan is a poster of not many words , don't be offended. We're all quirky in our own ways to make us unique!

Your friends traveling to Longview might run into some poor weather conditions per the latest runs. If they can get to their destination earlier before the weekend that would be best. By early next week we should have a more definitive answer.

i want snow for Christmas!!

My snow will I think be in the liquid kind and cold. Just miserable. But not has bad has Centeral Texas might get. Hope it is all snow!!

[Quixotic]

I’m more of a super long range person. I called La Niña this year when the models all had a nino. I also called that suppression would play a role. The last event fell into the suppression category as areas that normally don’t see snow and sleet, did.

One thing about the nose is that it appears to trend seasonally. 13-14, despite all the weather events, had a warm nose problem to overcome. 14-15 did not as any event we had was almost all snow.

My take on this system is that it will not have a warm nose problem. It will primarily be sleet and snow. We had pingers here back in October with surface temps in the low 40s. We just had an event that was almost all snow along the coast despite marginal cold. If those rates are right we could have a historic event. As much as I’d hate to say it, I’d look for it to be further south and east. That’s been the trend. It’d be nice for me to get a foot of snow just to keep the in laws away.

[starsfan65]

Yeah the winter threads tend to be a little more meteorological in nature and the terms can get confusing if you haven't been around to follow. But welcome! Any questions, feel free to ask. Starsfan is a poster of not many words , don't be offended. We're all quirky in our own ways to make us unique!

Your friends traveling to Longview might run into some poor weather conditions per the latest runs. If they can get to their destination earlier before the weekend that would be best. By early next week we should have a more definitive answer.

i want snow for Christmas!!

My snow will I think be in the liquid kind and cold. Just miserable. But not has bad has Centeral Texas might get. Hope it is all snow!!

i hope the Euro is right.