Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Brent]

FWD not biting but is talking about it

Tuesday
night through early Wednesday morning, guidance begins to deviate
on the potential for winter precipitation. Confidence remains low
that broad scale lift associated with the approaching upper trough
will be enough for any precipitation, liquid or otherwise, to
develop in the cold post-frontal air mass.

[Brent]

[wxman57]

We don't want to be in the bullseye this far out. Move it a few counties east over the next few days and jackpot!!!

That's it! Reverse weather psychology! Why don't you complain about the cold weather and wish for temps in the 90s next week? That'll get you snow.

Very clever 57. This is reverse psychology in itself. Your 90's are coming shortly without any help from us. The winter lovers are realistic to some degree. Let us have our dreams, our fantasy models, snow stuff, etc.....Tell me then, what is happening next week in Texas? Cold and snow or 90's?

Drats! You didn't fall for it...

[Cerlin]

Back to back GFS runs with winter weather? Now I’m intrigued.

[Brent]

Back to back GFS runs with winter weather? Now I’m intrigued.

I wish it wasn't day 6 but yeah...

[Cerlin]

Back to back GFS runs with winter weather? Now I’m intrigued.

I wish it wasn't day 6 but yeah...

https://i.ibb.co/HzCFTj9/gfs-asnow-scus-25-1.png

And I actually misspoke, it’s *3* runs in a row now for the GFS...which means the 6z will drop it and we’ll never see it again!

That being said, I’m very glad it’s within 7 days as opposed to being 10+ days out like the GFS normally teases us with.

[Texas Snow]

3 runs in a row. Doesn’t prove anything but better than the alternative (maybe?)

[Cerlin]

3 runs in a row. Doesn’t prove anything but better than the alternative (maybe?)

For sure. But we can at least say it’s not an outlier as it is showing a similar thing fairly consistently now. Even if that could very well never appear again, just nice to see some continuity for once

[Brent]

Only 5 out of 20 GEFS members had snow at 18z so that's something to watch too

About 20 out of 50 EPS members(most are less than a half inch though)

[Brent]

CMC looks like a no which is a change

[TropicalTundra]

I can prove that it will snow because it shows 3-4 inches on GFS right here in Bell county. See? Proof!

[Brent]

The Euro again avoids the metro entirely and well is way different than the GFS to the south

[gpsnowman]

Fox 4 is on board for at least a cold rain on Wednesday with a potential for winter fun. Has all day in the 30's. Only local affiliate to mention a chance of a winter mix that I have seen.

[gboudx]

Fox 4 is on board for at least a cold rain on Wednesday with a potential for winter fun. Has all day in the 30's. Only local affiliate to mention a chance of a winter mix that I have seen.

Delkus mentioned as well during the 6pm yesterday. Even showed the Euro with snow west of the Metroplex. He joked snowmargeddon was coming.

[bubba hotep]

EPS with a pretty strong signal for at least some winter wx at DFW

[bubba hotep]

06z Euro EPS

[Texas Snow]

Fox 4 is on board for at least a cold rain on Wednesday with a potential for winter fun. Has all day in the 30's. Only local affiliate to mention a chance of a winter mix that I have seen.

The NWS already has it in their forecast.


Plus here is the relevant AFD

By Tuesday morning, deep cyclogenesis is expected to take place
across the Texas Panhandle along a southeastward advancing cold
front. There are some discrepancies in the timing of the front,
but all global guidance is in agreement that a cold front will
usher in much colder weather sometime Tuesday. Ahead of the front,
enough lift will likely be generated to produce showers and
thunderstorms mainly east of I-35. Instability does not appear to
be enough for severe thunderstorms, therefore, lightning will
likely be the main threat. With a strong shortwave still located
across the Desert Southwest, the next forecasting challenge will
be the associated precipitation as the shortwave moves closer to
the region.

With a fairly slanted cold air wedge in place across North and
Central Texas, baroclinicity along the frontal boundary will lead
to a period of strong frontogenetical ascent across the region.
Just where this will occur is still up for debate across the 00Z
suite of models. To complicate matters even further, the
thermodynamic profile and the effects of the precipitation on
ambient temperatures will play a big part in the precipitation
type. For now, Ive added a mention of rain/snow/sleet across
portions of North and Central Texas to account for the increasing
concern of frozen precipitation. Given the lack of confidence in
location and thermodynamic environment, as well as the above
freezing temperatures, no accumulations will be included in the
forecast. As we get closer to the Wednesday morning and guidance
begins to converge on a solution, we will be able to better
determine if there will be any accumulations/impacts.

This swath of precipitation will continue moving eastward through
the day on Wednesday, with a continuing opportunity for a wintry
mix mainly north of I-30. High temperatures will range from the
mid 40s in the north to the mid 50s in the south. All
precipitation will likely exit the region Wednesday night, leaving
behind dry conditions the latter half of next week. Temperatures
will gradually rebound into normal territory be next weekend, with
a continuation of dry weather.

[orangeblood]

EPS with a pretty strong signal for at least some winter wx at DFW

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1580428800/1580428800-uvow9ut7FyI.png

Euro and GFS Ens are on board but the Canadian is having no part of it, both it's Deterministic and ENS have no significant storm

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS - western portion looks like legit snow but as you move closer to DFW that is more sleet/freezing rain. Given the model bias to be too slow with low level cold, winter wx might actually extend farther SE than what is depicted here.

[Ntxw]

At the 500mb, much of North Texas goes below 540dm. That's the coldest aloft system of the season and the strongest in years if verified.

This system has some serious potential, not just for snow but significant blizzard, major storm perhaps for somebody?