Texas Winter 2024-2025

[mmmmsnouts]

Yep, my take is fine you know what, embrace the fact that people have access to do your job and then maybe use your platform as a TV meteorologist to educate folks and turn it in more to a science type lesson. Maybe cut back on the rest of the other crap the news spouts out that's meaningless to our local town.

Live local weather is the only thing that still drives local news viewership - that’s why stations go absolutely over the top covering it. If people stop tuning in for that, there’s no reason for the broadcast to exist.

From what I've also read today they're the only ones who actually don't read a prompter the whole time so they're truly live and giving their actual opinion and words to everything they say.

But to my point make it more educational and informational as well as sensational.

I get that. My comment was more existential. They need people to take their weather forecasting as gospel and not get information from other places, so they can maintain ratings and ad revenue.

[rwfromkansas]

That has to be one of the best model runs I've seen for north Texas. Just a dream.

[Ralph's Weather]

And with that run, assuming no horrible future trends, the hype machine is gonna start in a big way. Thankfully many here have been on this for a week plus already.

[orangeblood]

And with that run, assuming no horrible future trends, the hype machine is gonna start in a big way. Thankfully many here have been on this for a week plus already.

need to see the Ensembles begin trending towards the this 500 mb look and confidence will sky rocket

Latest SPIRE model trending towards GFS Op. It's been stuck with the cutoff solution and now going with the GFS look

[Brandon8181]

And with that run, assuming no horrible future trends, the hype machine is gonna start in a big way. Thankfully many here have been on this for a week plus already.

Yes sir, and alot of great people here all putting their heads together in a big way

[Brent]

I just heard that Indianapolis has its first winter storm watch in 3 years

This winter just seems different than the last couple. Like supposedly this isn't even our best pattern coming up and yet we might snow still

[HockeyTx82]

This will be interesting and my gosh the emotional roller coaster ahead is just going to be a nail biter.

Someone on this board is going to have their heart broken.

[Gotwood]

CMC just keeps trending colder notice multiple days with single digit lows into NTX.

[Iceresistance]

And with that run, assuming no horrible future trends, the hype machine is gonna start in a big way. Thankfully many here have been on this for a week plus already.

need to see the Ensembles begin trending towards the this 500 mb look and confidence will sky rocket

Latest SPIRE model trending towards GFS Op. It's been stuck with the cutoff solution and now going with the GFS look

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/spire-forecast-basic/namer/z500_anom/1735819200/1736424000-xSnpQWGSd5A.png

Does SPIRE model have precip and snowfall or is that not an option?

[Ralph's Weather]

CMC just keeps trending colder notice multiple days with single digit lows into NTX.

CMC as usual represents the coldest case but it is entirely possible to see single digits with thick and expensive snow cover.

[Brent]

This will be interesting and my gosh the emotional roller coaster ahead is just going to be a nail biter.

Someone on this board is going to have their heart broken.

Well I already have low expectations up here I'll probably believe it snows when I see it

Although I am glad we at least have something on the models but it's still too far out

[Stratton23]

18z Euro has moderate snow in houston

[orangeblood]

And with that run, assuming no horrible future trends, the hype machine is gonna start in a big way. Thankfully many here have been on this for a week plus already.

need to see the Ensembles begin trending towards the this 500 mb look and confidence will sky rocket

Latest SPIRE model trending towards GFS Op. It's been stuck with the cutoff solution and now going with the GFS look

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/spire-forecast-basic/namer/z500_anom/1735819200/1736424000-xSnpQWGSd5A.png

Does SPIRE model have precip and snowfall or is that not an option?

[Iceresistance]

need to see the Ensembles begin trending towards the this 500 mb look and confidence will sky rocket

Latest SPIRE model trending towards GFS Op. It's been stuck with the cutoff solution and now going with the GFS look

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/spire-forecast-basic/namer/z500_anom/1735819200/1736424000-xSnpQWGSd5A.png

Does SPIRE model have precip and snowfall or is that not an option?

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/spire-forecast-basic/conus/instant_ptype/1735819200/1736467200-k2EnwWifP5E.png

Oh my lord, how much snow fell!?

[Lagreeneyes03]

Id say confidence is increasing on potential a significant impactful winter weather event across a good chunk of texas, of course timing is everything, but im growing pretty confident someone could be in for a big surprise

"Good chunk of Texas" makes me nervous, only for ERCOT reasons. One part of the state shutdown is alright, 2/3..gets into sketchy territory I think.

[Stratton23]

Lagreeneyes03 depends, if its mostly a snow/sleet event, dont think we will have any issues with the grid, now if we see more ice, that could be more problematic , but even then i highly doubt we would see a grid failure on the level of 2021

[Throckmorton]

The amount of climate warming during meteorological winter at locations in Texas and Oklahoma since the season indicated (LOESS curve method, in °F):

.5.8°...1898/99...Austin Camp Mabry
.4.8°...1895/96...Houston
.4.7°...1892/93...Amarillo
.4.3°...1898/99...Dallas / Fort Worth
.4.3°...1894/95...Tyler
.3.9°...1878/79...Brownsville
.3.8°...1904/05...Beaumont / Port Arthur
.3.5°...1905/06...Del Rio
.3.1°...1874/75...Galveston
.3.0°...1887/88...Corpus Christi
.3.0°...1906/07...Tulsa
.2.8°...1887/88...El Paso
.2.8°...1890/91...Oklahoma City
.2.7°...1930/31...Midland / Odessa
.2.3°...1885/86...Abilene
.1.9°...1918/19...Stillwater
.1.8°...1913/14...Lubbock
.1.6°...1914/15...Lawton
.1.5°...1931/32...San Angelo
.1.1°...1905/06...Victoria
.0.8°...1885/86...San Antonio
.0.7°...1901/02...Waco
.0.4°...1889/90...College Station
-0.7°...1905/06...Llano, TX
-1.0°...1896/97...Danevang, TX
-1.0°...1923/24...Wichita Falls
-1.1°...1942/43...Austin Bergstrom AP
-1.1°...1931/32...Boerne

[snownado]

Id say confidence is increasing on potential a significant impactful winter weather event across a good chunk of texas, of course timing is everything, but im growing pretty confident someone could be in for a big surprise

"Good chunk of Texas" makes me nervous, only for ERCOT reasons. One part of the state shutdown is alright, 2/3..gets into sketchy territory I think.

As long as it's just snow and we don't have a prolonged period below freezing, it shouldn't be too bad...

[Lagreeneyes03]

This will be interesting and my gosh the emotional roller coaster ahead is just going to be a nail biter.

Someone on this board is going to have their heart broken.

As a wise woman said this summer.. "Heartbreak is one thing, my ego's another I beg you don't embarrass me m.."

[Throckmorton]

Id say confidence is increasing on potential a significant impactful winter weather event across a good chunk of texas, of course timing is everything, but im growing pretty confident someone could be in for a big surprise

"Good chunk of Texas" makes me nervous, only for ERCOT reasons. One part of the state shutdown is alright, 2/3..gets into sketchy territory I think.

Cold is ERCOT's main enemy. Freezing rain is the enemy of local operators. In February 2021, unprecedented demand that could not be met with available generation capacity across the ERCOT service area necessitated load shedding to save the grid. Big power plants shut down for reasons such as frozen pipes (like one of the two units at the South Texas Nuclear Project). Another big problem were shortages in natural gas supplies caused by frozen gathering pipelines. And then there were problems with frozen wind turbines, low wind once the high pressure settled in, and extensive cloud cover.

Of course, the grid is now "fixed" according to the governor.... Since he said that, ERCOT has revealed that it does not have sufficient transmission capacity to get surplus electricity from south Texas to the rest of the state. That will take almost a decade to fix.

In 2021, February 16th was the second–coldest day in Texas history, behind only February 12, 1899. The statewide temperatures were, respectively, 12.0 and 9.5° F. February 15, 2021, tied for fourth–coldest, with February 17th tying for 30th–coldest.