Will the dreaded dry slot wreak havoc today on a winter wonderland forecast?
Maybe, maybe not.
Here's the DFW AFD hot off the presses for this winter weather event and the one shaping up early next week too...
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 2/3RDS OF THE WAY THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND WILL
HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES
ARE DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 03Z/9 PM BUT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HOURS.
THE EXCITING AND CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SNOW TODAY. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM LAST NIGHT ARE TO
INCREASE THE SNOW TOTAL AMOUNTS AND EXTEND THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z/6 PM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR
MIDLAND AND WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS MID-LATE MORNING.
THE
LATEST MODELS PROGRESS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RIGHT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SETTING UP A SNOW EVENT FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO NEARLY
5" IN THE NORTHWEST TAPERING TO 1" IN THE ADVISORY AREA. GIVEN THE
SLOWER SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE ALSO LINGERED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGIONS.
WE CHOSE TO USE A 7:1 SNOW RATIO AND THE AVERAGE OF REASONABLE
SREF MEMBERS FOR SNOW TOTALS.THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY IN
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...RESEMBLING BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS. MINOR SNOW
DRIFTS OF A FEW FEET WILL LIKELY FORM DUE TO THE BLOWING SNOW.
THESE SNOW DRIFTS WILL FORM AGAINST BUILDINGS AND OTHER STANDING
OBJECTS SUCH AS FENCES.
AS THE RUC SUGGESTS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY GET DRY-SLOTTED
OR TOO MUCH WARM AIR NEAR 700 MB MAY GET WRAPPED AROUND THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OVERALL
PERSISTENCE OF THE MODEL RUNS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW MENTIONED
AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
BEYOND TODAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED UNTIL
TUESDAY. COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. HAVE MENTIONED A WINTER PRECIPITATION MIX
OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT SNOW IN THE
NORTH AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH MAY OCCUR BUT WILL FINE TUNE
AS NEEDED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT
MOS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO COINCIDE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Would be cool if it sticks around for tomorrow 
