Texas Winter 2012-2013

[dhweather]

Given what the last few Euro op runs have shown, what the CMC has shown, what the ensembles are now suggesting ... and the trend today of the GFS coming towards the Euro solution, I am completely baffled and scratching my head by the area forecast discussion (below) issued this afternoon by the forecasters at EWX. Why do they refuse to acknowledge the possibility of frozen precip or freezing rain next week? No, I'm asking for snow or freezing rain to be included in the forecast ... but if you're going to reference the Euro in your AFD, at least you might mention the possibility. It's not like only one model run showed winter weather happening. And, you really got to wonder when the neighboring NWSFOs reference it (Fort Worth and Houston/Galveston).

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Do you think because predicting snow in central Tx is so difficult and they have been burned on forecasts so many times, they want to wait to the last minute to even mention it.

They are probably going to let the models run one or two more cycles before advertising it. They probably don't want to cry wolf just yet, and I can't blame them.

[Portastorm]

Given what the last few Euro op runs have shown, what the CMC has shown, what the ensembles are now suggesting ... and the trend today of the GFS coming towards the Euro solution, I am completely baffled and scratching my head by the area forecast discussion (below) issued this afternoon by the forecasters at EWX. Why do they refuse to acknowledge the possibility of frozen precip or freezing rain next week? No, I'm asking for snow or freezing rain to be included in the forecast ... but if you're going to reference the Euro in your AFD, at least you might mention the possibility. It's not like only one model run showed winter weather happening. And, you really got to wonder when the neighboring NWSFOs reference it (Fort Worth and Houston/Galveston).

----.

Do you think because predicting snow in central Tx is so difficult and they have been burned on forecasts so many times, they want to wait to the last minute to even mention it.

I have no idea, ndale. I understand and appreciate forecasters -- whether they be private or public sector mets -- who are conservative and stay away from being hype artists. "Conservative" isn't just the prevailing political attitude in this state, it also makes sense for meteorologists when considering winter weather as it's a very dicey proposition. But I think one can be conservative in this case and still discuss the "players on the field." NWS Fort Worth did a good job of this in their AFD.

[orangeblood]

So JB is going with an idea of a major east coast storm and not with snow for south TX? That is what I am taking out of it.
It would not make sense for an east coast storm with the NAO now positive.

He's a little bias for the east coast. His GFS is going to be wrong idea is a good one but the storm track up the coast is unlikely, good call with the +NAO, I think a path straight out to the Carolina coast is better

Bastardi's east coast biased act is starting to get old...almost to the point to where he is losing credibility. I only pay attention to him in the longer range

[ndale]

Given what the last few Euro op runs have shown, what the CMC has shown, what the ensembles are now suggesting ... and the trend today of the GFS coming towards the Euro solution, I am completely baffled and scratching my head by the area forecast discussion (below) issued this afternoon by the forecasters at EWX. Why do they refuse to acknowledge the possibility of frozen precip or freezing rain next week? No, I'm asking for snow or freezing rain to be included in the forecast ... but if you're going to reference the Euro in your AFD, at least you might mention the possibility. It's not like only one model run showed winter weather happening. And, you really got to wonder when the neighboring NWSFOs reference it (Fort Worth and Houston/Galveston).

----.

Do you think because predicting snow in central Tx is so difficult and they have been burned on forecasts so many times, they want to wait to the last minute to even mention it.

I have no idea, ndale. I understand and appreciate forecasters -- whether they be private or public sector mets -- who are conservative and stay away from being hype artists. "Conservative" isn't just the prevailing political attitude in this state, it also makes sense for meteorologists when considering winter weather as it's a very dicey proposition. But I think one can be conservative in this case and still discuss the "players on the field." NWS Fort Worth did a good job of this in their AFD.

My concern is for people who need to plan ahead for weather events especially if the event turns out to be an ice storm instead of a snow storm, that can shut central Tx down for days.


Edited 1 time

[BigB0882]

I sure wish that would swing east for all if us in South Louisiana. I see the rain in our forecast but temps aren't cold enough, those seem to be staying to the west. I remember a few years ago when it always seemed we were colder than my friends in TX but lately the colder temps seem to stay over there.

[LaBreeze]

I sure wish that would swing east for all if us in South Louisiana. I see the rain in our forecast but temps aren't cold enough, those seem to be staying to the west. I remember a few years ago when it always seemed we were colder than my friends in TX but lately the colder temps seem to stay over there.

I'm not going to stand up while I'm waiting BigB - we could be standing for a very long time, I'm afraid. Oh well.

[GaryHughes]

----.[/quote]

Do you think because predicting snow in central Tx is so difficult and they have been burned on forecasts so many times, they want to wait to the last minute to even mention it.[/quote]

I have no idea, ndale. I understand and appreciate forecasters -- whether they be private or public sector mets -- who are conservative and stay away from being hype artists. "Conservative" isn't just the prevailing political attitude in this state, it also makes sense for meteorologists when considering winter weather as it's a very dicey proposition. But I think one can be conservative in this case and still discuss the "players on the field." NWS Fort Worth did a good job of this in their AFD.[/quote]

My concern is for people who need to plan ahead for weather events especially if the event turns out to be an ice storm instead of a snow storm, that can shut central Tx down for days.


Edited 1 time[/quote]



This subject is a two edged sword, if you tell everyone that a storm is coming and they cancel plans, well, then most will say you got it wrong again and that you don't know what you are doing.... and on the other hand if you wait to see if things develope, well, again the same outcome from folk's (more of a loose loose than a win win).

I think the best thing to do is exactly what the NWS FW did earlier and what Portastorm refered to was explain the whole thing in a language that everyone can understand and based on that you can make a plan.

[KatDaddy]

Amazing Spring-like skies on a Winter day. It was in the upper 40s when I took the photo......lots of SW noise up there today.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wxman57]

Portastorm, the San Antonio NWS office has no incentive to discuss snow potential 4 days from now. No reason to mention it at all at this point. It's much better for them not to mention it now and maybe work it into the forecast when they're quite sure it will happen then to get everyone excited about snow and then have it NOT materialize. That's one of the reasons why private weather companies are in business. We're paid to make the tough calls and work closely with our clients to help mitigate damages.

I see the 18Z GFS has a band of 1-3" of snow across TX next Wed/Thu. It's north of San Antonio/Austin but goes right through D-FW with the core. Suffice it to say we can't count on any of the models being precisely right at this distance.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

[Ntxw]

Anyone check out the latest progs for the stratosphere? Warming completely breaks down the Arctic vortex, displacing the anomaly near the troposphere unusually so. If these forecasts hold true, we may see the PV get pushed as far south as the US/Canadian border

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/s ... strat_a_f/

It qualifies as a major sudden stratospheric warming event.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS has nothing on it! Northern stream takes over and Texas is high and dry

[iorange55]

0z GFS has nothing on it! Northern stream takes over and Texas is high and dry

Yup! No snow for anyone! Definitely think this is the right solution...

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Anyone check out the latest progs for the stratosphere? Warming completely breaks down the Arctic vortex, displacing the anomaly near the troposphere unusually so. If these forecasts hold true, we may see the PV get pushed as far south as the US/Canadian border

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/s ... strat_a_f/

It qualifies as a major sudden stratospheric warming event.

Ok I'll bite........what exactly does that mean for those of us (ie me ) who are under that ???????????

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

and what does it mean for those of you who are far South of me?

[Ntxw]

Ok I'll bite........what exactly does that mean for those of us (ie me ) who are under that ???????????

More for you and for us, for Wxman57

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

loverly

I am currently watching the movie "The Grey".......am working on sending ThunderSleetDreams to their den.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAoRn6UJIaE[/youtube]


He too will be sans guns.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

just saw Wxman57's

*sigh*

[LaBreeze]

0z GFS has nothing on it! Northern stream takes over and Texas is high and dry

Yup! No snow for anyone! Definitely think this is the right solution...

Totally agree

[Ntxw]

Canadian just jumped ship and joined the GFS party, nada just a little rain for Brownsville!

[orangeblood]

Canadian just jumped ship and joined the GFS party, nada just a little rain for Brownsville!

Have to admit, I'm pretty shocked by the flip back towards the GFS solution from last night. Looking at the synoptic pattern, it seems to be slowing down and thus should favor a less progressive pattern but doesn't appear to be the case for next week. Frustrating to say the least!!