Texas Winter 2010-2011

[ravyrn]

A North Texas and southern U.S. snowstorm. Already one huge n'oreaster blizzard on the eastern seaboard and in New England. Now another Mid-Atlantic storm and New England storm.

Two Southern U.S. snowstorms so far this winter.

[wxman57]

The snow on the ground shows up well on satellite. Check out how it fell north and east of Dallas on the image below:

[Tireman4]

The snow on the ground shows up well on satellite. Check out how it fell north and east of Dallas on the image below:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... BI_vis.jpg

Wxman 57...I wonder ( and this is outloud) how long it would be before we can accurately predict weather events 10+ days out. Do you think 5-7 years?

[natlib]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/sjt/ ... image3.gif

[wxman57]

The snow on the ground shows up well on satellite. Check out how it fell north and east of Dallas on the image below:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... BI_vis.jpg

Wxman 57...I wonder ( and this is outloud) how long it would be before we can accurately predict weather events 10+ days out. Do you think 5-7 years?

You'll have to define "accurately". Temperatures to within 1 degree? We can't even do that 24 hours out now. 5 degrees? 10? Short wave features? Major storms?

Current models often have problems picking up on small-scale features several days out. These smaller-scale features could produce major impacts (like the nor'easter tonight/Wed).

It's hard to answer your question without more specificity as to what an accurate forecast represents.

[Tireman4]

The snow on the ground shows up well on satellite. Check out how it fell north and east of Dallas on the image below:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... BI_vis.jpg

Wxman 57...I wonder ( and this is outloud) how long it would be before we can accurately predict weather events 10+ days out. Do you think 5-7 years?

You'll have to define "accurately". Temperatures to within 1 degree? We can't even do that 24 hours out now. 5 degrees? 10? Short wave features? Major storms?

Current models often have problems picking up on small-scale features several days out. These smaller-scale features could produce major impacts (like the nor'easter tonight/Wed).

It's hard to answer your question without more specificity as to what an accurate forecast represents.

I think I was thinking without wild fluctuations within model runs. I was thinking 5-10 degrees within a week.... and will it ever be able to pick up on smaller scale features?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Why is La nina teasing us in Houston ? I would like to have an event this year, it would be the first time it snowed three winters in a row. Last year was the first time we had two snow events in consecutive season.

That Euro graph is beautiful, think it will actually happen? The models are still showing alot of cold air up there

[downsouthman1]

It's hard to answer your question without more specificity as to what an accurate forecast represents.[/quote]

I think I was thinking without wild fluctuations within model runs. I was thinking 5-10 degrees within a week.... and will it ever be able to pick up on smaller scale features?[/quote]
Sorry to chime in here on something that wasn't directed to me, but wild fluctuations occur because of the complexity of storm systems, which generally follow major & minor jets but can form/dissipate extremely rapdily. We will never have accurate forecasts because it is impossible to say, in advance, exactly what a weather event will do. Weather forecasting is similar to hypothesizing. It's simply the best possible educated guess, but even those are subject to change. The atmosphere of earth is way too complex for computer models to forecast.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Here is a strange rainfall pattern map from Accuweather showing the last weeks rainfall pattern: Looks like a face. My kids really thought it was cool.......Well, I tried to post the image.....can someone tell me how to post images. Seems like I can't download them anymore. All it does is take me to Imageshack.

[CaptinCrunch]

...COLD WEATHER TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND CHILL
READINGS THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR UP TO 18
HOURS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE EXPOSED
PIPES TO BURST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

It has yet to get above freezing here at work in DT FTW, current temp is 30 degrees.

[Ntxw]

Chilly day today, I'm thinking DFW is going to have a hard time breaking 32, 27 currently at 1pm, at least the sun is out. The European continues to make me nervous. PNA!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Chilly day today, I'm thinking DFW is going to have a hard time breaking 32, 27 currently at 1pm, at least the sun is out. The European continues to make me nervous. PNA!

http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/2315/pnaa.gif

i know we arent supposed to leave the image in, but you see that little pesky low down there too..... Houston folks claim that one!

[gpsnowman]

Hello everyone! Still learning about this forum so bare with me. This is my first post and I really enjoy this forum as an educational tool for all things weather. Alot of smart weather minds out there. Ntxw, what do you make of that model and when. ? This rookie needs to learn! How do I add a location?

[srainhoutx]

The Operational models (Euro/GFS) are suggesting the Arctic air to continue building in Canada in the coming days. There is a strong E Pacific Ridge (+PNA) developing as well as a -EPO. That tends to suggest sharp troughiness in the Western/Central US and allows those -40's that the Euro depicts to head S. Something to follow over the next several days as the models struggle with the pattern. There are also hints that the Polar Vortex will be displaced into Southern Canada. We shall see.

[Ntxw]

Hello everyone! Still learning about this forum so bare with me. This is my first post and I really enjoy this forum as an educational tool for all things weather. Alot of smart weather minds out there. Ntxw, what do you make of that model and when. ? This rookie needs to learn! How do I add a location?

Welcome on board! You can edit your location and many other things using the user control panel top right. Select profile and fill in what you would like! As srainhoutx mentioned, Canada will be extremely cold. In fact so cold, the coldest air in the world perhaps will be residing just to our north the next few weeks. The chart depicts a +PNA which is ridging up the west coast, this is favorable for cold air to dive directly south into our vicinity if there is some help.

[txagwxman]

The snow on the ground shows up well on satellite. Check out how it fell north and east of Dallas on the image below:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... BI_vis.jpg

Wxman 57...I wonder ( and this is outloud) how long it would be before we can accurately predict weather events 10+ days out. Do you think 5-7 years?

Never...unless you can build a computer that accurately predict the non-linear effects of advection, stretching, vorticity generation/advection to micron level.

So I doubt we will get there anytime soon. But in about 10 years expect a steady improvement in long range forecasting as computer power increases.
I expect by then the Global ECMWF will be run at 5km, GFS 10km, NAM .2KM, and I would expect a higher resolution wrf down to .001KM by that time and be operational.

US needs to improve the GFS physics package to be on par to the ECMWF...

[wxman57]

The snow on the ground shows up well on satellite. Check out how it fell north and east of Dallas on the image below:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... BI_vis.jpg

Wxman 57...I wonder ( and this is outloud) how long it would be before we can accurately predict weather events 10+ days out. Do you think 5-7 years?

Never...unless you can build a computer that accurately predict the non-linear effects of advection, stretching, vorticity generation/advection to micron level.

So I doubt we will get there anytime soon. But in about 10 years expect a steady improvement in long range forecasting as computer power increases.
I expect by then the Global ECMWF will be run at 5km, GFS 10km, NAM .2KM, and I would expect a higher resolution wrf down to .001KM by that time and be operational.

US needs to improve the GFS physics package to be on par to the ECMWF...

Improved physics is one area for improvement, but perhaps a bigger area for improvement is in model initialization data. Currently, we have very little data over much of the globe. Perhaps when we have a generation of satellites in orbit that can generate full atmospheric soundings for any location and get that data input into the models, THEN we'll see some really significant improvement.

[Portastorm]

Snippets of interest concerning the longer range (beyond 6-7 days) from various Texas-based NWSFOs through their afternoon forecast discussions:

Austin/San Antonio

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
GRAZING THE AREA NEXT TUE-THU. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION PATTERN...CLIMATOLOGY...AND SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN STATES. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GFS MOS TEMPS
5-10F FOR NEXT TUE...AND MAY DO THE SAME FOR FOLLOWING PERIODS
WHEN THEY GET WITHIN OUR 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW.

Amarillo

IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THE BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE DEPICTING
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS IS BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

[srainhoutx]

And Dodge City chimes in:

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THERE IS MORE OF A MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
WHICH WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO COLD AIR. HOWEVER, MODEL SURFACE
TEMPS REMAIN AROUND NORMAL. PLAN TO STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL
FOR DAYS 6-7 (M-T) BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC INTRUSION MID NEXT WEEK
(DAYS 8-10) SO WILL SHOW A COOLING TREND IN WK 2.

[iorange55]

If all that cold decided to come down anytime soon.....man it'd be something.