Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

I think we've been deceived with the talk to extreme cold air. The past few days have been nothing less of chill. Barely to freezing in DFW, Austin and Houston struggling to get into the 40s and this is not even the mother load?! In any typical year this would be your die hard outbreak. I wonder if this is how most crazy arctic outbreaks start...ECMWF

[iorange55]

I think we've been deceived with the talk to extreme cold air. The past few days have been nothing less of chill. Barely to freezing in DFW, Austin and Houston struggling to get into the 40s and this is not even the mother load?! In any typical year this would be your die hard outbreak. I wonder if this is how most crazy arctic outbreaks start...ECMWF

Pssssh 32 for a high ain't nothing. Just wait. I wonder how cold it would be if the motherload ever did come down.

[Parker_County1]

Let's see how low it will go tonight. Here at my house in Weatherford it's currently 26°. Clear sky, calm winds. My forecast is the offical low in Weatherford will be about 8°.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

NORTH TEXAS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
700 PM CST TUE JAN 11 2011

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

TXZ118-119-120200-
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
DFW AIRPORT    CLEAR     27  14  58 N6        30.63R WCI  20
DALLAS LOVE    CLEAR     30  12  47 N6        30.65R WCI  24
FTW MEACHAM    CLEAR     28  16  60 NE5       30.63R WCI  23
DAL-EXECUTIVE  CLEAR     29  12  49 N3        30.63R
FTW-ALLIANCE   CLEAR     28  16  60 NE3       30.62R
FTW-NAS-JRB    CLEAR     32  12  43 N7        30.68R WCI  26
FTW-SPINKS     CLEAR     28  16  59 N5        30.63R WCI  23
ARLINGTON      CLEAR     28  14  55 N7        30.64R WCI  21
ADDISON        CLEAR     27  16  63 N6        30.64R WCI  20
MESQUITE       CLEAR     28  18  64 NW5       30.69R WCI  23
LANCASTER      CLEAR     28  19  69 N5        30.65R WCI  23
$$

TXZ091>094-102>105-117-120-121-131>134-120200-
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SHRMAN/DENISON CLEAR     27  15  61 N3        30.63S
GAINESVILLE    CLEAR     27  16  63 NW3       30.64S
BOWIE          CLEAR     28  13  54 CALM      30.60S
BRIDGEPORT     CLEAR     25  17  72 CALM      30.64R
DECATUR        CLEAR     28  10  46 CALM      30.60S
DENTON         CLEAR     27  16  63 CALM      30.64R
MCKINNEY       CLEAR     27  16  63 CALM      30.64R
GREENVILLE     CLEAR     28  19  69 CALM      30.64S
TERRELL        CLEAR     28  13  53 N5        30.65R WCI  23
CLEBURNE       CLEAR     32  14  47 N7        30.63R WCI  26
GRANBURY       CLEAR     32  15  50 CALM      30.63R
$$

TXZ083>090-098>101-113>116-127>130-139>142-154-155-120200-
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
WICHITA FALLS  CLEAR     29   8  41 CALM      30.61R
WF-KICKAPOO    CLEAR     30   8  39 CALM      30.62S
VERNON         CLEAR     30   8  39 CALM      30.60R
ABILENE        CLEAR     31   9  39 E3        30.56S
ABILENE-DYESS  CLEAR     27  10  49 NE5       30.54S WCI  22
BRECKENRIDGE   CLEAR     32  11  43 NE3       30.59S
GRAHAM         CLEAR     28  11  50 CALM      30.59F
MINERAL WELLS  CLEAR     29  11  47 N3        30.60R
STEPHENVILLE   CLEAR     30  16  55 CALM      30.58S
COMANCHE         N/A     30  16  55 N6        30.58S WCI  24
BROWNWOOD      CLEAR     30  19  64 CALM      30.58R
COLEMAN        CLEAR     31  20  63 NE3       30.56R
BRADY          CLEAR     30  16  55 N3        30.54R
$$

TXZ143>147-156>162-174-175-120200-
CENTRAL TEXAS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
WACO           CLEAR     30  17  58 NE7       30.62R WCI  23
HILLSBORO      CLEAR     29  17  61 N6        30.62S WCI  23
CORSICANA      CLEAR     29  17  61 N6        30.64R WCI  23
HEARNE         CLEAR     32  19  59 N7        30.61R WCI  26
TEMPLE         CLEAR     30  18  59 N3        30.61S
KILLEEN-GRAY   CLEAR     34  18  51 N6        30.58R WCI  29
KILLEEN-SKYLRK CLEAR     28  14  54 N7        30.59R WCI  21
FORT HOOD      CLEAR     32  17  54 N5        30.59R WCI  27
GATESVILLE     CLEAR     32  19  59 N3        30.61S
HAMILTON       CLEAR     31  18  57 CALM      30.58R
LAMPASAS       CLEAR     32  19  59 N3        30.57R
$$

TXZ095>097-106>112-122>126-135>138-148>153-164>167-120200-
EAST TEXAS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PARIS          CLEAR     25  10  54 W6        30.63R WCI  18
SULPHUR SPRNGS PTCLDY    28  14  55 NW6       30.66R WCI  22
CLARKSVILLE    CLEAR     27  13  56 CALM      30.62R
MOUNT PLEASANT CLEAR     26  12  55 W8        30.64S WCI  18
GILMER         CLEAR     28  19  69 CALM      30.65R
MINEOLA        PTCLDY    30  16  55 CALM      30.65R
TYLER          CLEAR     28  15  58 N7        30.64R WCI  21
LONGVIEW       CLEAR     27  18  69 NW8       30.63R WCI  19
PALESTINE      CLEAR     32  19  58 N9        30.64R WCI  24
JACKSONVILLE   CLEAR     30  16  55 N7        30.61R WCI  23
HENDERSON      CLEAR     29  18  64 N5        30.62R WCI  24
NACOGDOCHES    CLEAR     30  18  59 N7        30.60S WCI  23
LUFKIN         CLEAR     34  16  47 N5        30.59R WCI  30

[somethingfunny]

I didn't live here during 1996, was that cold snap on par with the one we had last year? I remember White Rock Lake was about 1/4 frozen over at the north end last year, we skipped logs across the surface I didn't think the Arctic outbreak would be as powerful as 1989 or 1983 when it first appeared on the long range models 10 days or so ago but I did anticipate a 1996 style outbreak (or 2010 if it was about on par) ..... do y'all think that's still in the cards next week? It's been below freezing here all day and most pudddles are still liquid, so we're a long ways off from even moderately epic cold right now.

[txagwxman]

US needs to improve the GFS physics package to be on par to the ECMWF...[/quote]

Improved physics is one area for improvement, but perhaps a bigger area for improvement is in model initialization data. Currently, we have very little data over much of the globe. Perhaps when we have a generation of satellites in orbit that can generate full atmospheric soundings for any location and get that data input into the models, THEN we'll see some really significant improvement.[/quote]

True...more models running with different physical parameterizations (superensemble) will help too.

[Ntxw]

I didn't live here during 1996, was that cold snap on par with the one we had last year? I remember White Rock Lake was about 1/4 frozen over at the north end last year, we skipped logs across the surface I didn't think the Arctic outbreak would be as powerful as 1989 or 1983 when it first appeared on the long range models 10 days or so ago but I did anticipate a 1996 style outbreak (or 2010 if it was about on par) ..... do y'all think that's still in the cards next week? It's been below freezing here all day and most pudddles are still liquid, so we're a long ways off from even moderately epic cold right now.

I was too young to remember 1996. Though a lot of the modern outbreaks here often times is compared to that one and I think 1990 or 1991. Last year was cold but there was never true Siberian air entrenched. It was your typical Canadian airmasses that were flooded directly to us due to favorable PNA. This year (at least next week) you have truly tremendous cold air (the kind that sets records in Canada ouch) from Siberia and across the arctic.

What we've had the past several days again are Canadian air masses. Lets see if it comes down in waves then the big one or one kahuna! I highly doubt something so dense will stay locked up.

[Ntxw]

True...more models running with different physical parameterizations (superensemble) will help too.

Tbh we should scrap the GFS (and to an extent the ECMWF) for long range forecasts! Ensembles work best in that regards since long range the OPs are low res anyway. I know the OPs statistically are members too and that's what we should keep them as (again long range forecasts only).

[vbhoutex]

I think we've been deceived with the talk to extreme cold air. The past few days have been nothing less of chill. Barely to freezing in DFW, Austin and Houston struggling to get into the 40s and this is not even the mother load?! In any typical year this would be your die hard outbreak. I wonder if this is how most crazy arctic outbreaks start...ECMWF

I'm not sure if I would use the word deceived. Not sure what I would use. I've been in Houston since 1969 and I am reminded of the 1970's by the weather/cold we have been having. We had some nasty ice storms and of course the 3 snows in Jan and Feb 1973. I am not saying that is what is going to happen, but when we do have/have had Epic cold here it has often started like this and reloaded and reloaded and finally the Mother Lode hits. Some of models are hinting at at least one or two reloads within the next 3 weeks or so(I haven't studied them closely yet). If that is the case we are off to a good start for some Epic cold before this is over. I am not making a bold prediction YET, just talking about possibilities.

[Parker_County1]

It looks like the temperature may not go as low tonight as I had thought. It is already down to 21° at my house, but the dewpoints are rising (12 at MWL and 15 at Fort Wort NAS).

But still a cold night...

[downsouthman1]

I think we've been deceived with the talk to extreme cold air. The past few days have been nothing less of chill. Barely to freezing in DFW, Austin and Houston struggling to get into the 40s and this is not even the mother load?! In any typical year this would be your die hard outbreak. I wonder if this is how most crazy arctic outbreaks start...ECMWF

I'm not sure if I would use the word deceived. Not sure what I would use. I've been in Houston since 1969 and I am reminded of the 1970's by the weather/cold we have been having. We had some nasty ice storms and of course the 3 snows in Jan and Feb 1973. I am not saying that is what is going to happen, but when we do have/have had Epic cold here it has often started like this and reloaded and reloaded and finally the Mother Lode hits. Some of models are hinting at at least one or two reloads within the next 3 weeks or so(I haven't studied them closely yet). If that is the case we are off to a good start for some Epic cold before this is over. I am not making a bold prediction YET, just talking about possibilities.

I'm not trying to bust up this bubble but if mother lode is on the way, we are in trouble. In the deep south, we do not have much snow-fighting equipment, & things would truly shutdown. Not shutdown like where you miss a day or two of work, but a collapse of the local economy. Stores not open to receive products to sell to customers who can't get there anyway. That's part of the reason that such equipment doesn't exist here; it's because we haven't seen a Siberian airmass in almost 40 years.

[iorange55]

I'm not trying to bust up this bubble but if mother lode is on the way, we are in trouble. In the deep south, we do not have much snow-fighting equipment, & things would truly shutdown. Not shutdown like where you miss a day or two of work, but a collapse of the local economy. Stores not open to receive products to sell to customers who can't get there anyway. That's part of the reason that such equipment doesn't exist here; it's because we haven't seen a Siberian airmass in almost 40 years.

We'll be fine. Grab a few extra jackets and just bundle up by the fire for a few days. Maybe play some ice hockey at your local pond. You can tell when it starts to warm up when the first person falls in.

[downsouthman1]

[

I would dare say that about 99.99% of people would not even begin to understand the implications of such an outbreak. It is something that most people who have spent their whole life in the south have never seen or dealt with. The storm that just passed through here & killed the Southest was really minor in comparison to what may happen with mother lode. More than likely, the event will not happen. It's pretty much a once or twice in a lifetime event & I would be extremely surprised to actually see it pan out. But if it does...

[vbhoutex]

I think we've been deceived with the talk to extreme cold air. The past few days have been nothing less of chill. Barely to freezing in DFW, Austin and Houston struggling to get into the 40s and this is not even the mother load?! In any typical year this would be your die hard outbreak. I wonder if this is how most crazy arctic outbreaks start...ECMWF

I'm not sure if I would use the word deceived. Not sure what I would use. I've been in Houston since 1969 and I am reminded of the 1970's by the weather/cold we have been having. We had some nasty ice storms and of course the 3 snows in Jan and Feb 1973. I am not saying that is what is going to happen, but when we do have/have had Epic cold here it has often started like this and reloaded and reloaded and finally the Mother Lode hits. Some of models are hinting at at least one or two reloads within the next 3 weeks or so(I haven't studied them closely yet). If that is the case we are off to a good start for some Epic cold before this is over. I am not making a bold prediction YET, just talking about possibilities.

I'm not trying to bust up this bubble but if mother lode is on the way, we are in trouble. In the deep south, we do not have much snow-fighting equipment, & things would truly shutdown. Not shutdown like where you miss a day or two of work, but a collapse of the local economy. Stores not open to receive products to sell to customers who can't get there anyway. That's part of the reason that such equipment doesn't exist here; it's because we haven't seen a Siberian airmass in almost 40 years.

HMM?? 40 years ago would be 1971. I do disagree on a collapse of the local economy. Major slowdown for maybe a week or so, maybe, collapse, no. Of course the extent of the repercussions from a "mother lode" would also depend on what parameters one uses to define "mother lode".

[downsouthman1]

I do disagree on a collapse of the local economy. Major slowdown for maybe a week or so, maybe, collapse, no. Of course the extent of the repercussions from a "mother lode" would also depend on what parameters one uses to define "mother lode".[/quote]

That definition differs from person to person. But I would antiquate it by saying that if you are less than 35 years of age, you've never seen it before.

[vbhoutex]

I do disagree on a collapse of the local economy. Major slowdown for maybe a week or so, maybe, collapse, no. Of course the extent of the repercussions from a "mother lode" would also depend on what parameters one uses to define "mother lode".

That definition differs from person to person. But I would antiquate it by saying that if you are less than 35 years of age, you've never seen it before.[/quote]
I moved to Houston when I was 18 years old in 1969.

[downsouthman1]

I do disagree on a collapse of the local economy. Major slowdown for maybe a week or so, maybe, collapse, no. Of course the extent of the repercussions from a "mother lode" would also depend on what parameters one uses to define "mother lode".

That definition differs from person to person. But I would antiquate it by saying that if you are less than 35 years of age, you've never seen it before.

I moved to Houston when I was 18 years old in 1969.[/quote]
Then you've seen it before. I haven't.

[iorange55]

I think the cold is effecting our quoting skills.

[Texas Snowman]

I was a senior in high school when the 1983 arctic outbreak took place.

A record 295 consecutive hours below freezing, some days lows were in the 5-10 degree range. Lots of burst water mains, frozen and broken pipes, and some minor travel disruption from the one or two snowfalls that took place. There were some power distribution issues (some plants BRIEFLY shut down a day or two, power companies prioritized power supply to homes and hospitals), but nothing major.

With all due respect, there was no collapse of the economy, not even a slowdown (especially amazing considering it began a few days before Christmas).

People still got out and lived. I still got out and duck hunted. Life, while certainly cold for a few days, went on.

[downsouthman1]

I think the cold is effecting our quoting skills.

More than likely, I just don't know how to do it. I think I figured it out though.