Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Lagreeneyes03]

Seems like a combo of the model solution froma few days ago.may be the reality. The Euro seems to have underestimated the northern stream but not as dominant as the GFS showed now if we can add in Canadiam temps we are in business. As we always say don't let yourself swing with every model run. Take into account trends over multiple runs of all the models and their ensembles and also look at historical analogs. This storm still has potential for a major ice storm and even could produce good snow into N TX. Also do not discount the rain portion of this as it will add up pretty good in E TX and even into DFW.

With all due respect, most of us in DFW and surrounding areas are over the miserable winter rain. I will discount to the deepest discount possible.

[bubba hotep]

Big south shift on the 12z Euro EPS, 1" mean line is down to about DFW.

[CaptinCrunch]

Everything depends on the storm track as it always does. 50 to 100 miles can be the difference in a cold ass rain, or a major winter storm.

I have the feeling this will be one of those playing catch up events. My vacation ends Wednesday so an extra day off would be nice.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

History wins again


In the last 50 years, there have been six times in the month of December where >1" of snow was recorded at DFW:

2013-14 2.1"
2009-2010 3.2"
2000-2001 1.5"
1986-87 1.7"
1983-84 2.0"
1972-73 1.4"


Don't count on it, don't plan on it, don't expect it to happen, and be pleasantly surprised if we actually do get any frozen precipitation.

I was looking back at the number of freezes and temps we had last dec/Jan/feb and last December was pretty much just like this December temp wise except for last Christmas we actually got cold. And the first week of January we had below freezing lows for the first full week, this year nothing close. Looked back at the old farmers almanac for our area and will say it did pretty well. Showed mild and rainy for December, which it was, and for January shows either mild and sunny or mild and rainy for almost all of January with the exception of a couple of colder days. Temps 7 degrees above normal. Looking like summer coming early again.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z NAM is showing more amplification of the northern stream than the 12z through hour 35. Will be interesting to see how it affects the storm track.

[bubba hotep]

18z NAM is farther south with the track but no real changes for N. Texas. It still shows a big snow storm for Eastern Kansas and Missouri while the 12z Euro has nada for those areas.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z NAM is showing more amplification of the northern stream than the 12z through hour 35. Will be interesting to see how it affects the storm track.

Storm track is noticeably further south during its transit across oklahoma during hours 66-84 (center passing over ardmore/norman, instead of ok/ks border). While the surface depictions aren't all that favorable yet, and the NAM is somehow showing temps slightly warmer than the previous run across ntx, I suspect this will change soon if trends hold. Need to wait and see if the GFS and FV3 follow the Euro and NAM on northern stream amplification.

[Jarodm12]

Why haven't they hoisted any WSW I don't understand every model now has come in heavy for Durant Ok?

[Ralph's Weather]

Euro and its ensembles look great overall at 500mb. Temps still a but warm but very close. Per the Euro we could be looking at a Thursday snow event with the upper low tracking directly along I20. Some members show the snow some have a barely miss. I like what I am seeimg today. The 3 day bullseye is often worse than the 5 plus day bullseye.

[rwfromkansas]

Winter storm watch....but west of metro.

[Jarodm12]

18z RGEM showing a serious ice storm for North West areas of nothing Texas into southern Oklahoma and hasn't even got to the snow yet lol!

[bubba hotep]

Winter storm watch....but west of metro.

1st round is up. I would argue that we could see the red circled counties added at some point, if the Euro doubles down on the 12z run.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS looks to be dipping into Northern Mexico this run. How will that impact the kick out?

[EnnisTx]

Looks like the system will track along the Red River. It looks like this will be a wait and see if it tracks North or further South.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z GFS looks to be dipping into Northern Mexico this run. How will that impact the kick out?

Slight southward shift in transit over texas/ok. Accumulation swath shifts slightly SE as well, and temps are 1-3 degrees colder in NTX during the event than on the 12z. Trend is slowly working in our favor.

[Jarodm12]

Looks like the system will track along the Red River. It looks like this will be a wait and see if it tracks North or further South.

Yes but take into consideration the GFS is the warmest if the temps are like the other guidance it's a major winter storm for North Texas and southern Oklahoma

[EnnisTx]

Winter storm watch....but west of metro.

1st round is up. I would argue that we could see the red circled counties added at some point, if the Euro doubles down on the 12z run.

https://i.ibb.co/w4XX84h/WSW.png

It wouldn't surprise me if they expanded the watch for Tarrant and Dallas Counties and Northward.

[SnowintheFalls]

Maybe I am reading the models wrong but is there a reason WF is not included in the WSW yet? Seems like the models have consistently shown wintry precip over us.

[SnowintheFalls]

On another note, it looks like the board is going to hit 100 pages in December!

[bubba hotep]

Maybe I am reading the models wrong but is there a reason WF is not included in the WSW yet? Seems like the models have consistently shown wintry precip over us.

I haven't seen the discussion yet, but I would guess that the current watches were hoisted for the chance of freezing rain on the front end. The snow the models are showing gets cranking a bit later giving the WFOs more time to mull their options.