Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

GFS back off to the east this run. 500 MB pattern looks a lot different this run. Windshield wipers until we get past the weekend imo.

It's still a decent run. We're not sliding the trough to the north and east anymore. Subtle differences with the shortwave and which pieces takes over.

0z Canadian is pretty much identical to the 12z ICON run. Bitter cold and cuts up into the midwest.

[IcyTundra]

0z GFS showing a coastal low on Christmas Eve not cold enough to snow though....

[starsfan65]

0z GFS showing a coastal low on Christmas Eve not cold enough to snow though....

run is weird

[Ntxw]

Almost 70F around Amarillo Christmas day GFS

[Cpv17]

Almost 70F around Amarillo Christmas day GFS

Very odd run.

[TheProfessor]

Would be amazing if we got a sharp cutter. Would be a big storm for most of us if we could get this surface low to dive down to El Paso turn east towards Waco then head northeast and then north-northeast from there. I can dream right?

[Ntxw]

Would be amazing if we got a sharp cutter. Would be a big storm for most of us if we could get this surface low to dive down to El Paso turn east towards Waco then head northeast and then north-northeast from there. I can dream right?

I don't think it's going to happen the way models portray it now. Too broad, closer in better resolution will be different.

[Iceresistance]

I'm kinda surprised by how unsettled the GFS still is right now.

[starsfan65]

I'm kinda surprised by how unsettled the GFS still is right now.

Strange GFS run

[Ntxw]

I'm kinda surprised by how unsettled the GFS still is right now.

Ukmet cuts to the upper midwest like CMC. GFS is kind of on its own at the moment with ICON kind of splitting the difference. under 120hrs they all dig about the same, then things goes into different camps.

[Iceresistance]

TheProfessor, I got this sounding from the 0z ICON, the temperatures are between 12°F and 6°F. The DGZ is HUGE! Likely between a 20:1 and 25:1 Ratio snowfall.
10:1 Ratio Snowfall is 1-2 inches for my area.

I do understand that you may not like being asked for the same general question, but I am now learning how to calculate the Snowfall Ratio without the Kuchera Ratio available on the model run.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/0z-ICON-Sounding.png

[TheProfessor]

TheProfessor, I got this sounding from the 0z ICON, the temperatures are between 12°F and 6°F. The DGZ is HUGE! Likely between a 20:1 and 25:1 Ratio snowfall.
10:1 Ratio Snowfall is 1-2 inches for my area.

I do understand that you may not like being asked for the same general question, but I am now learning how to calculate the Snowfall Ratio without the Kuchera Ratio available on the model run.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/0z-ICON-Sounding.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/0z-ICON-Sounding.png

It's not an easy thing to do, I usually just guesstimate based off experience. ICON was showing a DGZ depth of 12-13k feet across Kansas. That would be 25 to 30-1 ratio type snow. Kuchera is great if you know you're dealing with a significant DGZ depth. However, if your column is too cold where the DGZ is actually small Kuchera overestimates snow ratios since it goes off into infinity. The WPC curve is a great correction for that and doesn't overestimate those extreme cold setups.

[Iceresistance]

TheProfessor, I got this sounding from the 0z ICON, the temperatures are between 12°F and 6°F. The DGZ is HUGE! Likely between a 20:1 and 25:1 Ratio snowfall.
10:1 Ratio Snowfall is 1-2 inches for my area.

I do understand that you may not like being asked for the same general question, but I am now learning how to calculate the Snowfall Ratio without the Kuchera Ratio available on the model run.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/0z-ICON-Sounding.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/0z-ICON-Sounding.png

It's not an easy thing to do, I usually just guesstimate based off experience. ICON was showing a DGZ depth of 12-13k feet across Kansas. That would be 25 to 30-1 ratio type snow. Kuchera is great if you know you're dealing with a significant DGZ depth. However, if your column is too cold where the DGZ is actually small Kuchera overestimates snow ratios since it goes off into infinity. The WPC curve is a great correction for that and doesn't overestimate those extreme cold setups.

A 25:1 to 30:1 Ratio snowfall would be insane
Where does the WPC contain the WPC curve? I would like to see the site.

[Quixotic]

It’s coming

[rwfromkansas]

Well was hoping for some more clarity but will take longer.

Almost to 100 pages!

[Brent]

The GFS is such a joke... Nobody here even has us above freezing for Christmas and it's pushing 50

[TheProfessor]

TheProfessor, I got this sounding from the 0z ICON, the temperatures are between 12°F and 6°F. The DGZ is HUGE! Likely between a 20:1 and 25:1 Ratio snowfall.
10:1 Ratio Snowfall is 1-2 inches for my area.

I do understand that you may not like being asked for the same general question, but I am now learning how to calculate the Snowfall Ratio without the Kuchera Ratio available on the model run.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/0z-ICON-Sounding.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/0z-ICON-Sounding.png

It's not an easy thing to do, I usually just guesstimate based off experience. ICON was showing a DGZ depth of 12-13k feet across Kansas. That would be 25 to 30-1 ratio type snow. Kuchera is great if you know you're dealing with a significant DGZ depth. However, if your column is too cold where the DGZ is actually small Kuchera overestimates snow ratios since it goes off into infinity. The WPC curve is a great correction for that and doesn't overestimate those extreme cold setups.

A 25:1 to 30:1 Ratio snowfall would be insane
Where does the WPC contain the WPC curve? I would like to see the site.

Not sure it's publicly available, might just be for NWS employees right now. Couldn't find anything with a quick Google search.

[Ghost0321]

Wonder which model Apple uses for their weather app it has lows 13, 10 and 18 for Thursday, Friday and Saturday

[TropicalTundra]

40 degrees and light rain. SleetDreams was right about potential surprise weather overnight. Mixed precip band just to my west

[Iceresistance]

Taking out the +PNA ridge and increasing the East Coast Ridge with the middle trough on the Euro?


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/trend-ecmwf_full-2022121700-f132.500h_anom.conus.gif