Texas Winter 2012-2013

[iorange55]

The models seem very confused at the moment. Changing with almost every run and some of the runs just look...funky. That's the best way I can explain it.

I'm not sure what the heck will happen.

[Tireman4]

Patience folks....patience

[Longhornmaniac8]

I don't like this trend...

[iorange55]

I don't like this trend...

I'm not sure if there is a trend!

[perk]

If there is a trend, it's the model inconsistency.

[Stormlover2012]

i know the nam sucks but its interesring cant post it on my phone so maybe someone can

[BigB0882]

We need an app that sends you an alert anytime a major model shows snow over your location. It can also be used for land falling hurricanes, etc.

[iorange55]

We need an app that sends you an alert anytime a major model shows snow over your location. It can also be used for land falling hurricanes, etc.

It would need a warning that reads,

"Caution: this app may cause heartbreak, tears, confusion and sudden rage. Purchase at your own risk."

[dhweather]

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US THROUGH LATE WEEK. THEREFORE WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO

From the NWS FWD discussion this afternoon:

EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MID-HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS OVER THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE 40S THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS FROM GUIDANCE LOOK TOO
COOL WITHOUT THE AID OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL KEEP THESE IN
THE UPPER 20S NW TO MID 30S SE. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST MID-
LATE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...AND THEREFORE WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE AIRMASS BELOW 700MB DRY OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY WHERE LOW LEVELS MAY BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR
SOMETHING MORE THAN VIRGA. THE CHANCE OF ANY WINTER PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ZERO...BUT LOOKS MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND
CERTAINLY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH SKIES
CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES ON A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND.



Sounds like we're not going to see any more frozen precip, but we will start to warm up some next weekend.

[Ntxw]

^ Yes like I said for the January thoughts, after the first week a relaxation period. Warm mongerers will rejoice and announce winter's 2 week visit dead and cancel while the pessimism will return.

But! For them a wise man once said "Behind the walls our enemy is regrouping"





And when I said relaxation, back to seasonal normals, no record breaking heat wave until June!

[gpsnowman]

About how long is this warm up period going to last before another storm comes through? Also, what I have been reading about the collapse of the polar vortex and stratospheric warming is getting my novice mind very excited. It sounds like some serious cold might be attacking the lower 48. My mouth is watering.

[Rgv20]

I know the GFS is struggling with the midweek forecast but posting just for fun!


18zGFS Snowfall forecast thru Noon Friday..

[Ntxw]

Right on Rgv20, lets not forget the valley. Most models still do support frozen precip down there at least.

To gpsnowman if I had to loosely guess the 10th to the 20th. No model show any kind of torch though, we'll finally get out of the 40s back to the 50s which is closer to normal. There can still be fronts just no new cold air from Canada and the southern branch remains active.

[dhweather]

Looking at the GFS and its consistency issues, it got me to thinking, what if we did throw 4000 more processor cores at the GFS? Sure, they could crank the resolution down, but would it necessarily "fix" the model? Maybe they need to work on the code??

[wxman57]

:uarrow: About how long is this warm up period going to last before another storm comes through? Also, what I have been reading about the collapse of the polar vortex and stratospheric warming is getting my novice mind very excited. It sounds like some serious cold might be attacking the lower 48. My mouth is watering.

Warm up? About 12-18 hours tomorrow afternoon into the night. Then colder and colder. Nothing extreme, just miserable. 12Z Euro had a small area of snow south of Midland to the Big Bend area Wed/Thu. Nothing east of there. Just damp, dreary, cold weather. Highs in Houston Wed/Thu maybe 43-46 with precip. Colder up north. I'd take 110 degrees over that any day. (my eyes are watering...)

[wxman57]

Looking at the GFS and its consistency issues, it got me to thinking, what if we did throw 4000 more processor cores at the GFS? Sure, they could crank the resolution down, but would it necessarily "fix" the model? Maybe they need to work on the code??

The bad runs would finish much quicker. CPU power isn't the issue, the physics is.

[Ntxw]

It's not all doom and gloom about the Wed/Thurs event. Sure the trend is bad, and we lost the Euro but as long as we have one model still rooting for us there is always a chance at a comeback! It ain't over till the fat lady sings, lets hope the 0z NAM shortly jump starts a good run tonight

If not for that system we'd all be talking about the widespread beneficial rains for the state New Years eve which is a plus

[dhweather]

It's not all doom and gloom about the Wed/Thurs event. Sure the trend is bad, and we lost the Euro but as long as we have one model still rooting for us there is always a chance at a comeback! It ain't over till the fat lady sings, lets hope the 0z NAM shortly jump starts a good run tonight

If not for that system we'd all be talking about the widespread beneficial rains for the state New Years eve which is a plus

Amen to that. This by itself is reason to celebrate! I'd take 3" of rain over any amount of snow for the rest of the winter.

[Cyclenall]

I have 2 questions: 1. How often does a PV get near the boarder like that (once every x years) and 2. What would that look like on surface pressure maps? A very powerful high or something at a different level of the atmosphere?

Not sure the exact statistics, maybe once every 5 years or so. The great Lakes region sees sub 492 thickness, and a large -30c 850s or greater area covers the southern Canadian provinces and northern US. Early Feb 2007 was the last time I can recall such an event, also coupled with a major SSW event. High pressure doesn't generate true cold, the PV does. They are mostly used to transport the cold on the backside of the PV, the stronger the high, the stronger the push of cold south but the true cold stays under the vortex.

Something like this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/200 ... hp#picture

Thanks for the info, I keep getting the PV and the SSW mixed up even though they're linked. Its also helpful that you mention the 500 mb thickness because I've started following those maps more closely this year. Its very interesting you mention early Feb 2007, that was the last time our area here in southern Ontario near the lakes got a truly major Lake Effect Snow event that buried us all of a sudden after low snowfall beforehand. I'm fascinated to see if this is a harbinger of things to come.

I was writing this response soon after the post but the browser crashed and didn't finish it until now.

[Comanche]

February 2007-