Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Texas Snow]

Curious what his stat method shows. It’s really only had one infamous major winter BUST that I recall, and dfw got a foot of snow out of that. With it being the weekend and all and thus him not teaching, perhaps we’ll get a run at it tomorrow.

Edit: Wow, only 100 pages on Feb 1. With the storm potential now within five days and the weekend upon us I can’t wait to see how many posts this is up to one week from now versus how many it’s taken to get here! Bring it Storm2k’ers!

[TheProfessor]

The 0z UkMet still develops that secondary low, however it's further west on this run so it develops a light 1-2" snow band west of the Metroplex.

[Brent]

Euro is 10 degrees warmer than the GFS at 7am Wednesday looks like it's gonna be rain in the metro again snow is way NW even Wichita Falls is borderline this run

[Cerlin]

Euro is 10 degrees warmer than the GFS at 7am Wednesday looks like it's gonna be rain in the metro again snow is way NW even Wichita Falls is borderline this run

https://i.ibb.co/LP4MZQ7/sn10-acc-us-sc-5.png

I don’t know if I can even trust the Euro anymore. It’s been borderline awful at times this year.

[TheProfessor]

Both the Euro and UkMet are ramping up the severe potential in southern Louisiana(imo). One thing to watch is that if there's a western trend or slower trend with this systems, it could put our southeast Texas friends in play for more significant weather(Though with the Euro's trend they may be in play already, at the very least for large hail.). East Texas was highlighted by SPC yesterday, I would be surprised to see the new Day 5 stretch a little further west(if they're leaning towards the Euro and UkMet.)

[Brent]

Euro is 10 degrees warmer than the GFS at 7am Wednesday looks like it's gonna be rain in the metro again snow is way NW even Wichita Falls is borderline this run

https://i.ibb.co/LP4MZQ7/sn10-acc-us-sc-5.png

I don’t know if I can even trust the Euro anymore. It’s been borderline awful at times this year.

Honestly I'm having issues believing any models lol

I tend to think the GFS is way overdone though

The GEFS has gotten a lot better though. There are some WSW level members in here



And finally the 0z EPS continues to look good

[Cerlin]

6z GFS, continuing to blanket DFW with snow. Unwavering in its support of this system thus far.

[stormlover2013]

Don’t trust any models this far out

[TropicalTundra]

TWC now calling for “Rain/Snow Showers Late” in Bell. still kinda far out, ya think?

[Texas Snow]

Not really. Those apps/forecasts are just some sort of blend of model output with no human going in an analyzing for your specific location or every point in the US for that matter.

Other than entertainment or directionally what trends are, I’m not sure why folks that are serious about the weather like all of us here even look at them. Not saying I haven’t looked before, but it’s those type of national brand forecasts that common people look at and then when it’s wrong (more often than your NWS forecast) blast all weather people as being idiots. I know you are not in the category but it’s just a pet peeve of mine for people that use TWC or their iPhone etc as their primary source and are surprised when it’s wrong. Rant over.

[bubba hotep]

Ensembles put the focus of the winter wx out towards Lubbock but the 12z GFS has the biggest totals centered south of DFW

[Cerlin]

GFS is at 9 runs in a row with an inch or more at DFW? That’s consistency.

[TropicalTundra]

Not really. Those apps/forecasts are just some sort of blend of model output with no human going in an analyzing for your specific location or every point in the US for that matter.

Other than entertainment or directionally what trends are, I’m not sure why folks that are serious about the weather like all of us here even look at them. Not saying I haven’t looked before, but it’s those type of national brand forecasts that common people look at and then when it’s wrong (more often than your NWS forecast) blast all weather people as being idiots. I know you are not in the category but it’s just a pet peeve of mine for people that use TWC or their iPhone etc as their primary source and are surprised when it’s wrong. Rant over.

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley will be running his usually accurate Stat Method later today to check on snow chances next week. Come on Stat Method!!!!

[harp]

I'm happy for you Texas boys!! Looking good for you! I was there as a child in '63/'64. Have home movies of the 6" of snow that year in Dallas!

[Texas Snow]

Steve McCauley will be running his usually accurate Stat Method later today to check on snow chances next week. Come on Stat Method!!!!

I AM ways so curious what goes into it. I feel like it’s just a blend of models that he weights based on biases he may be aware of in relation to the specific setup.

That said if I had it I would run it 4 times a day. He typically only runs it once a storm. Twice if we are lucky. No idea why. So curious

Plus if it says Snow I will get all excited and say Book It Stat Method confirms whereas if I see the word “rejects” I’ll of course say well it’s early, garbage in garbage out, it’s been wrong before, etc...

[rwfromkansas]

I think the stat method is just another model average. A bit overhyped. I doubt it will show anything beyond a dusting for the metro. I am glad to have something to watch. This is likely our only shot.

[Brent]

Euro still not impressed for DFW neither is the CMC really

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro inline with the EPS, that pretty much seals the deal for DFW. Looks like maybe some snow showers but any significant winter wx will likely be well West of DFW.

ETA: GEFS mean favors the Euro/EPS solution and that makes the 12z GFS a major outlier in the model data.

[Texas Snow]

Yeah with each GFS run I dread seeing it disappear, not because one run means anything, but because that would be a move towards the others. But each time it stays the same also adds a degree of confidence. Can’t wait to see how this pays out...