2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[iorange55]

It looks like Lucy may be trying to taunt the southern plains once again...


^^December 3rd/4th^^

If only that would stay on there.....dang Lucy, just leave us alone till you know for sure.

[iorange55]

Both GFS models are showing that same system 14 or 15 days out, it'll probably change. But you never know.

[iorange55]

That would be amazing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS gets snow into the Panhandle, but not to anyplace where I know anybody.

[Portastorm]

In just 36 hours, our forecasted high for Friday went from low 60s to low 50s. Tomorrow looks to be a blustery and chilly day here in the state capital of Texas!

[iorange55]

The new cpc winter outlook makes me sad.

[gboudx]

The new cpc winter outlook makes me sad.

Just because it shows predictions of above normal temps for us, doesn't mean we won't have wintry weather threats.

BTW, here's the Outlook from NOAA.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... tlook.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Lucy continues to play her games with the southern plains this evening. Tonight's 00z run of the GFS shows many winter weather threats into the southern plains during the first week of December, including an amazing looking winter storm around December 4th-6th.

[Texas Snowman]

Iorange55,

I wouldn't worry in the least about CPC - I rarely pay attention to their winter outlooks.

Personally, while my memory can be faulty, I can't honestly remember the last time a "colder than average" winter was forecast for this part of the southern Great Plains.

And last year, right here in the Red River Valley, after a fairly benign winter, we got two dumps of 8" and 9" in one week's time in the month of March!

Undboutedly, there will be some winter weather episodes in Texas this year. The only question is when, where, and how much. Good luck!

Tx Snowman

[iorange55]

Iorange55,

I wouldn't worry in the least about CPC - I rarely pay attention to their winter outlooks.

Personally, while my memory can be faulty, I can't honestly remember the last time a "colder than average" winter was forecast for this part of the southern Great Plains.

And last year, right here in the Red River Valley, after a fairly benign winter, we got two dumps of 8" and 9" in one week's time in the month of March!

Undboutedly, there will be some winter weather episodes in Texas this year. The only question is when, where, and how much. Good luck!

Tx Snowman

[Portastorm]

Now THIS is a beautiful image! Arctic airmass overhead and a developing Gulf low slinging lots of moisture back over Texas. You gotta love it!

[Texas Snowman]

Portastorm,

If you look closely, the two blue lines diving out of western Canada make a turn to the east through the Rockies. Is that the path of cold air...or a blue representation of a Big L as in Lucy is getting her football teed up?!

I've got my snow loving fingers crossed for an early December storm here in N. Texas.

Good luck...and keep your eye on the ball!

Tx Snowman

[iorange55]

New run of the gfs 18 basically shows no real cold air coming down here. Don't know if that means anything or not.

[Ptarmigan]

I get a feeling we might see a repeat of December of 1989, when waves of Arctic blasts pummeled Texas. Winter of 1989-1990 was quite mild for the most part afterwards.

[iorange55]

New gfs 00 still looking pretty good.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New gfs 00 still looking pretty good.

Might be enough to cancel schools in DFW on December 3rd...

[somethingfunny]

I'm not kicking until someone else holds the football besides GFS.

[iorange55]

Look at this.

Noaa discussion for the Dallas area.

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE HAD SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO PARIS LINE. INSENTROPIC UPGLIDE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT 30-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 20
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE REGION.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-35 FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW...AVERAGING LESS
THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY. AFTER A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

Lame? Yes.



Now the NOAA discussion for Oklahoma.

LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW MOVING/SPREADING NE FROM TX ACROSS SE
OK. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS MAKING ONLY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSS BUT
EVENTUALLY SHOULD OVERSPREAD SE 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA LATER TODAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO S TX. WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF -RA/-SHRA TODAY/TONIGHT IN THE SE. COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NW OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING CENTRAL OK
AND OUR TX ZONES BY 06Z AND EXITING OUR SE ZONES BY 12Z.
COOLER/DRIER BEHIND FRONT... WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY N WINDS
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL TO THE GOING FORECAST TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. MAX/MIN TEMP GRIDS BASED MAINLY ON MET GUIDANCE.

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BECOMING MORE BLOCKY DURING THE WEEK...
STARTING WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE N ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A TRAFFIC JAM OF SORTS UPSTREAM AND LIMIT THE PROGRESSION
OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURES. UPPER TROUGH NOW CROSSING N ROCKIES WILL
AMPLIFY... CLOSE OFF... AND STALL OVER THE NE. UPPER RIDGE NOW
NEAR THE W COAST WILL MAKE IT AS FAR E AS THE PLAINS BEFORE IT
TOO FINDS IT HARD TO GO MUCH FARTHER. THIS ALL ARGUES FOR A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIG INTO S CA OR
THEREABOUTS... WERE IT NOT FOR THE EVENTUAL APPROACH OF YET
ANOTHER UPSTREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO GIVE IT A KICK E BY
AROUND THURSDAY. INTERACTION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LOOSEN THE
LOG JAM ACROSS THE CONUS BY LATE WEEK... ALLOWING THE SW TROUGH OR
UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
CLOSER THIS MORNING THAN IT HAS BEEN... WITH TRENDS FAVORING A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL. THUS WE MAY BE ABLE TO SALVAGE
THANKSGIVING WITH EITHER NO PRECIP OR ONLY LIGHT RAIN... WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. POPS ARE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY - A LITTLE LOWER ON
THURSDAY AND HIGHEST POPS APPROACHING LIKELY CATEGORY THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE BRINGING THEM BACK DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS/PRECIP
LIKELY TO RESULT IN COOLISH TEMPS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
LIMITED DIURNAL VARIANCE... BEFORE SOMEWHAT COOLER/COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

THERE STILL ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ARCTIC INTRUSION WITH MORE BITE
TO IT ARRIVING NOT LONG AFTER THE CURRENT 7-DAY FORECAST...
POSSIBLY INTO OK AS EARLY AS MONDAY 3 DECEMBER PER LATEST
GFS/ECMWF. 00Z GFS HAS RELENTED FROM THE 1062MB CANADIAN SFC HIGH
ON LAST NIGHT`S 06Z RUN... BUT STILL DEPICTS A DECIDEDLY COLD
LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NATION BY DAY 10. STRONG UPPER
RIDGE NEAR W COAST AND STRONGLY MERIDIONAL N FLOW DOWNSTREAM WITH
BL TEMPS IN THE 30S F AND 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING -10C OVER OK.
ECMWF LIKEWISE LOOKS COLD... EVEN WORKING THE ARCTIC AIR
INTO/ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DOES
NOT CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE A RIVAL TO SOME OF THE MORE INFAMOUS
RECORD COLD OUTBREAKS OF DECEMBER 1983 AND 1989... BUT IF IT PANS
OUT IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH AN
ATTENDANT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINTER-TYPE PRECIP THE WEEK
AFTER NEXT. 24

Much more interesting. I wonder why there is such big difference.

[Portastorm]

I'll tell you what, if today's 0z run verifies ... there will be a lot more than DFW schools closed in Texas on Dec. 3rd!

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[vbhoutex]