Early thoughts on Texas winter 09-10

[Portastorm]

I like that idea, SG! Maybe I could get my wife to dress up as Lucy?! We do have several footballs at home.

[srainhoutx]

Anyone notice the ECMWF 00Z run last night? I also see the ensembles are hinting a big change around mid October as well. Sure appears an Artic type High Pressure system setup and could put us in a rather "active pattern". Sub Tropical jet with lots of over running disturbances. Hmmm...

[Tireman4]

Anyone notice the ECMWF 00Z run last night? I also see the ensembles are hinting a big change around mid October as well. Sure appears an Artic type High Pressure system setup and could put us in a rather "active pattern". Sub Tropical jet with lots of over running disturbances. Hmmm...

Ok, Srainhoutex said it. Snow for us... .....Joke...sorry I could not resist....Does not that pattern usually mean.....cough...ice....

[ntxweatherwatcher]

How far out do the models go? Any models that show Halloween weather yet?

[srainhoutx]

Well the ECMWF continues to advertise some cooler weather for mid October. If guidance is to be believed, 850mb 0 degree line will be just N of Houston in a little over a week. We shall see.

[vbhoutex]

Well the ECMWF continues to advertise some cooler weather for mid October. If guidance is to be believed, 850mb 0 degree line will be just N of Houston in a little over a week. We shall see.

[Portastorm]

Lucy has begun her torture ... and it's just the start of October!

[vbhoutex]

Lucy has begun her torture ... and it's just the start of October!

I think the trip to Colorado was a mistake. Now she probably has even more attitude!

[snow and ice]

Portastorm, nice analysis. Send me an IM when you get a chance. BTW, EURO looks unseasonably cold next weekend.

12Z EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9100412!!/

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Is next week shaping up to be unseasonably cold? Do you think North Texas will have a freeze before Halloween? If so it maybe a messy, cold winter!!

[snow and ice]

Is next week shaping up to be unseasonably cold? Do you think North Texas will have a freeze before Halloween? If so it maybe a messy, cold winter!!

Looks like modified Canadian air this weekend(severe weather and flooding will be the story over North Texas Friday-Friday night) and a somewhat cooler reinforcing shot early next week.

[southerngale]

Lucy has begun her torture ... and it's just the start of October!

LOL - it's gonna be a looooooooooooooooooong winter.

[Portastorm]

Winter can't be too far away ... check out this snippet from Amarillo's AFD this afternoon:

AGAIN...FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FRI...SUN...AND MON MORNINGS...
WITH SUN MORNING THE COLDEST. TRENDED A AT OR A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE ON
MAX TEMPS FOR THE NEXT THROUGH SUN AND TWEAKED LOWS UP A TAD TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGH HUMIDITIES AND LIKELY CLOUD COVER. THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING TEMPS AND LIGHT WINTRY TYPE PRECIP NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY SUN MORNING.

[srainhoutx]

If that's the case, would be surprised to see WWA issued for parts of NM and NW TX. If guidance is correct we may see another strong shot of colder air after the 17th of October. It's going to be a long winter I suspect.

[southerngale]

Bring it on! It's freaking HOT out there... too hot for October. I'm so ready for cooler weather. We've had a couple of teases with mild temps, but they were brief.

Kids in the north were out of school today, building snowmen. I got jealous and went outside... but all I could make was a humidity man.

It wasn't that much fun.

[somethingfunny]

Bring it on! It's freaking HOT out there... too hot for October. I'm so ready for cooler weather. We've had a couple of teases with mild temps, but they were brief.

Kids in the north were out of school today, building snowmen. I got jealous and went outside... but all I could make was a humidity man.

It wasn't that much fun.

Oh God, it just reached Dallas. x_x Yesterday I had to wear jeans and a hooded sweatshirt with the hood up when I went outside. Today I woke up with all my sheets stuck to me bright condensation on the windows. It feels like Houston or Florida or some other horrible place I'd never want to live in right now. Yuck. 76 degrees with a dewpoint of 73 right now...forecast high of 87 whereas we've been getting used to low 70s lately.

Storms are coming tonight, then perhaps mid-40s???

[ntxweatherwatcher]

What with this early, crazy Fall, how bad of a winter will we have here in North Texas? I am hard-pressed to remember a crazier fall than this!

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
632 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
INCREASING CIGS OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN THOUGH IS THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO. USED THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE FRONT AS THE BASIS FOR THE
TAFS...WITH THE NORTH WINDS AND IFR CIGS HITTING KGUY AT 12Z...KDHT
AT 14Z...AND KAMA AT 17Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
FRONT MAY SPEED UP OVERNIGHT. SO WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING AWW CRITERIA OR NEAR 40 KNOTS. CURRENTLY
LEFT WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIP DEVELOPING AFTER THE
FRONT...BUT THINKING THIS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD...OR DURING THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD.

[Portastorm]

Well, as of early October, we are seeing that the NINO Region 3.4 values continue to rise and now look like they may peak at moderate this winter. The western areas of the NINO regions are looking warmer than the east so the predictions by others of a west-based El Nino look good. That means more precip for us in Texas and the southern Plains which is a very good thing as we try to recover from this two-year-plus drought.

The PDO values which have been negative for quite some time are now rising into positive. I took a look at analog years which most closely match what is going on with both the PDO and the ENSO values and two winter seasons stick out as close matches: 1976-77 and 2002-03. Here is what they looked like:

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[CaptinCrunch]

Well, as of early October, we are seeing that the NINO Region 3.4 values continue to rise and now look like they may peak at moderate this winter. The western areas of the NINO regions are looking warmer than the east so the predictions by others of a west-based El Nino look good. That means more precip for us in Texas and the southern Plains which is a very good thing as we try to recover from this two-year-plus drought.

The PDO values which have been negative for quite some time are now rising into positive. I took a look at analog years which most closely match what is going on with both the PDO and the ENSO values and two winter seasons stick out as close matches: 1976-77 and 2002-03. Here is what they looked like:

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A Moderate El Nino is pretty much a lock for this winter, the real question is wheather or not we see a strong El Nino. Many of the forecast models for El Nino are predicting a Strong El Nino by mid to late December. Either way many parts of the gulf coast will see a colder weter winter.