Siberian Express January/February 2011

[TeamPlayersBlue]

While I'm thinking about it, can anyone help me out here: what was the set-up for the 1899 arctic blast and blizzard that set so many records east of the Rockies?

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/dat ... _maps.html

Go here and type in the date you are looking for. Where do you guys get the Euro update?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You know what would be cool. Dan talked about this on the KHOU forum in response to my question..."Is there Gulf Effect Snow"? He said yes. Wonder would that happen if the air was so cold that the warm waters would cause it ?

Ocean effect, yeah, but the air would have to be super cold (maybe as cold as it's showing) for a low to pull air from the SE and warm gulf towards us. Ill take it!

[Portastorm]

While I'm thinking about it, can anyone help me out here: what was the set-up for the 1899 arctic blast and blizzard that set so many records east of the Rockies?

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/dat ... _maps.html

Go here and type in the date you are looking for. Where do you guys get the Euro update?

You can try Penn State's E-wall site for the Euro:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[Tireman4]

You know what would be cool. Dan talked about this on the KHOU forum in response to my question..."Is there Gulf Effect Snow"? He said yes. Wonder would that happen if the air was so cold that the warm waters would cause it ?

Ocean effect, yeah, but the air would have to be super cold (maybe as cold as it's showing) for a low to pull air from the SE and warm gulf towards us. Ill take it!

That would be wild. Weird, wackadoodle, wild for the Houston metro area.....we could be like Cleveland...LOL

[northjaxpro]

IFthe model runs remain consistent in showing this bitter arctic cold surge I would guess many records will fall and not just in the South. I wouldn't be surprised if some are broken even in areas like Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. I have never seen a high that deep in all my years of watching weather. I don't know how strong they were in 1983 and 1989, but I know it was freaking pipe bursting cold even here in Houston to the tune of millions of dollars worth of damage. I am not willing to predict that at this point, but it does have my rapt attention till it does or doesn't happen.

Well, during the December 1983 arctic outbreak, a record 1064 mb pressure was recorded in Montana. This High Pressure dome dropped down from Siberia into the Northern Plains, where it did weaken to 1044 mb by the time it entered the region. Still very impressive! During the December 1989 arctic outbreak, an impressive 1052 mb High Pressure dome dropped down from the same region. As bitterly cold those events were, IF the EURO verifies, a 1062 -1065 mb High Pressure dome would just be absolutely a record shattering event. Now, other factors such as amount of snowcover at the surface will definitely factor into play. If we have a good snowpack across the Central and Eastern CONUS by this time next week, this will keep the bitterly cold air mass from modifying and I am utterly speechless to think about the potential of record shattering low temperatures nationwide next week.

[HockeyTx82]

Wow, after catching up from lunch it seems that lots of poeple are on board of something happening next week. Is it still to far out to call it either way? I mean that fact that pro mets and others are talking about it makes me think something is going to happen.

I guess my other question is the winters of '83 amd '89, how far out did they know if was going to happen before mets felt confident in calling it? I would imagine since then our weather models and long range forecasts have gotten better, but then again I have seen many storms and cold bust in the short range. So when we will get details in that we can trust in terms of cold, snow, ice whatever is going to happen next week. Just throwing it out there.

[TigerCraig]

From Shreveport NWS (who are normally terrible at discussions):

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST STORY OF THE FORECAST IS JUST BEYOND THE NEXT
7 DAYS AND THAT COMES IN THE FORM OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE 2ND WEEK OF JANUARY. THE SETUP IS A DEEP UPPER VORTEX ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WHICH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS POLAR VORTEX IS ALLOWED TO DIG INTO THE PLAINS BY
A LARGE BLOCKING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 570-580 DAM
AT 500MB ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
ALASKA. MEDIUM RANGE PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWING A 1064MB HIGH
LOCKED UP ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA BEFORE SPILLING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
FRIGID AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE OR TUESDAY (JANUARY 11TH). WHILE
TIMING IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM WITH AIRMASSES SUCH AS THESE...THIS
AIRMASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST BY FAR EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THIS REGION THIS WINTER SEASON.

[gboudx]

Snippet from DFW.

BEYOND DAY 7...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
MASSIVE ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO THE US NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUILD 500MB HEIGHTS TO NEAR 580DM OVER THIS REGION BY
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME...CROSS POLAR FLOW WILL SET UP ALLOWING
EXTREMELY COLD AIR TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF INDICATES A MASSIVE 1069MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER
WESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN ITS
00Z RUN AND STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS A 1063MB HIGH.
THE FIRST SHOT OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS ON
MONDAY BUT THE TRULY ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO THE NORTH
AT THAT TIME. WHAT MAKES THIS SETUP SO CONCERNING IS NOT SIMPLY
THE MODEL OUTPUT BUT RATHER THE IMPACT THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE
OVER ALASKA WOULD HAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CROSS POLAR FLOW TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXTREMELY COLD AND DENSE AIR
OVER WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAW
MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF INDICATES HIGHS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN
THE 20S BY WED/THU WHICH IS VERY CONCERNING. PROLONGED
TEMPERATURES THIS COLD WITH COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BEGIN TO
HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS ON SOUTHERN INFRASTRUCTURE SUCH AS PIPES.
WHILE THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
COLD AIR HAS ARRIVED...THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE
TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

[Macrocane]

Hello american friends! It seems that not only US is going to be affected by that extremely cold air mass, Mexico and Central America are going to receive a nice shot of cold air from that mega-high. Thanks for the updates I will be monitoring the progress of this event very closely.

[Portastorm]

Hello american friends! It seems that not only US is going to be affected by that extremely cold air mass, Mexico and Central America are going to receive a nice shot of cold air from that mega-high. Thanks for the updates I will be monitoring the progress of this event very closely.

Good to hear from you Macrocane! Should this event actually transpire, we will look forward to your updates as well as some historical perspective. I know you have been great in the past with sharing record high/low temps in your area of Central America.

[vbhoutex]

IFthe model runs remain consistent in showing this bitter arctic cold surge I would guess many records will fall and not just in the South. I wouldn't be surprised if some are broken even in areas like Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. I have never seen a high that deep in all my years of watching weather. I don't know how strong they were in 1983 and 1989, but I know it was freaking pipe bursting cold even here in Houston to the tune of millions of dollars worth of damage. I am not willing to predict that at this point, but it does have my rapt attention till it does or doesn't happen.

Well, during the December 1983 arctic outbreak, a record 1064 mb pressure was recorded in Montana. This High Pressure dome dropped down from Siberia into the Northern Plains, where it did weaken to 1044 mb by the time it entered the region. Still very impressive! During the December 1989 arctic outbreak, an impressive 1052 mb High Pressure dome dropped down from the same region. As bitterly cold those events were, IF the EURO verifies, a 1062 -1065 mb High Pressure dome would just be absolutely a record shattering event. Now, other factors such as amount of snowcover at the surface will definitely factor into play. If we have a good snowpack across the Central and Eastern CONUS by this time next week, this will keep the bitterly cold air mass from modifying and I am utterly speechless to think about the potential of record shattering low temperatures nationwide next week.

A very good point njp!! ATTM it appears that that snow cover will probably be in place. As you said, if it is there will be lots of in many areas of the US and Canada.
Thanks for the historical information on the 1983 and 1989 Arctic outbreaks.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I know this looks and sounds exciting, especially for those of us in the deep south. But to play devils advocate what are the chances of this really happening? I mean during past hurricane seasons how many times were models showing this record breaking cat 5 hurricane making landfall in any major city along the coast that would get people talking but they also know it was at least a week away and bound not to happen because models would change a hundred times over. Are they really that much better at getting it right with winter storm systems than hurricanes?
Dont get me wrong I would love to some nice cold weather, not to the extent about having to worry about pipes breaking and such, but have the chance at some real winter precip at least.

[Ntxw]

I know this looks and sounds exciting, especially for those of us in the deep south. But to play devils advocate what are the chances of this really happening? I mean during past hurricane seasons how many times were models showing this record breaking cat 5 hurricane making landfall in any major city along the coast that would get people talking but they also know it was at least a week away and bound not to happen because models would change a hundred times over. Are they really that much better at getting it right with winter storm systems than hurricanes?
Dont get me wrong I would love to some nice cold weather, not to the extent about having to worry about pipes breaking and such, but have the chance at some real winter precip at least.

Very smart to be cautious. What separates events like this, in the past the historic outbreaks of cold are predicted well in advance by most if not ALL of the models, and have been for several days. This is the case here which is much different than usual GFS showing brutal cold and EC disagreeing. Put it this way, the models are predicting so cold (as a consensus) that even if they are wrong and are too strong, the likeliness of a weaker scenario would still be unusually cold, more so than what we have seen.

Predicting hurricanes and cold are quite different. Cold you have the air already in existence just a matter of where it will go with the right set up. Hurricanes sometimes pretty much come out of nowhere, much lower percentages when it comes to forecasting.

[Texas Snowman]

I know this looks and sounds exciting, especially for those of us in the deep south. But to play devils advocate what are the chances of this really happening? I mean during past hurricane seasons how many times were models showing this record breaking cat 5 hurricane making landfall in any major city along the coast that would get people talking but they also know it was at least a week away and bound not to happen because models would change a hundred times over. Are they really that much better at getting it right with winter storm systems than hurricanes?
Dont get me wrong I would love to some nice cold weather, not to the extent about having to worry about pipes breaking and such, but have the chance at some real winter precip at least.

Is there bust potential here. Sure. But the models have been advertising this consistently for several days now. The set-up looks ripe for such an outbreak of arctic air.

And then there's just simply the matter of the odds catching up with us. Outbreaks like this DO happen.

FYI, the last such outbreak was 1996 just after the Cowboys won Super Bowl XXX.

So one of two things is eventually going to happen...either Jerry's 'Boys win another Super Bowl or we get another severe outbreak of arctic air. I'm putting my money on the arctic air!

[Texas Snowman]

Also, I'm not sure if this looks exciting beyond the fact that the potential for a truly historic winter weather event appears to be looming for much of the eastern U.S.

But I also vividly remember the 1983 cold snap as a senior in high school.

Here in North Texas, we had 296 hours of subfreezing weather. As a result, pipes were bursting everywhere. Water mains were breaking everywhere. Lake Texoma partially (about 1/2 to 2/3 of it) froze over (it's an 89,000 acre reservoir).

Down in S. Texas, there was severe damage to the citrus industry and I don't know if it ever truly recovered there. Millions of fish - including millions of redfish and speckled trout - died along the Gulf Coast. Lawns, shrubs, trees, etc. also took a beating.

[northjaxpro]

IFthe model runs remain consistent in showing this bitter arctic cold surge I would guess many records will fall and not just in the South. I wouldn't be surprised if some are broken even in areas like Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. I have never seen a high that deep in all my years of watching weather. I don't know how strong they were in 1983 and 1989, but I know it was freaking pipe bursting cold even here in Houston to the tune of millions of dollars worth of damage. I am not willing to predict that at this point, but it does have my rapt attention till it does or doesn't happen.

Well, during the December 1983 arctic outbreak, a record 1064 mb pressure was recorded in Montana. This High Pressure dome dropped down from Siberia into the Northern Plains, where it did weaken to 1044 mb by the time it entered the region. Still very impressive! During the December 1989 arctic outbreak, an impressive 1052 mb High Pressure dome dropped down from the same region. As bitterly cold those events were, IF the EURO verifies, a 1062 -1065 mb High Pressure dome would just be absolutely a record shattering event. Now, other factors such as amount of snowcover at the surface will definitely factor into play. If we have a good snowpack across the Central and Eastern CONUS by this time next week, this will keep the bitterly cold air mass from modifying and I am utterly speechless to think about the potential of record shattering low temperatures nationwide next week.

A very good point njp!! ATTM it appears that that snow cover will probably be in place. As you said, if it is there wil
l be lots of in many areas of the US and Canada.
Thanks for the historical information on the 1983 and 1989 Arctic outbreaks.

You are welcome! We definitely have to closely monitor this potential severe arctic outbreak next week for certain. But yeah, if we get a substantial snowpack as I referenced above, this could be a potential all-time arctic intrusion for the record books folks.

[Texas Snowman]

Discussion out of Glasgow, MT NWS office this afternoon:

MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THIS LATEST STORM. RSMITH

[Texas Snowman]

Continuing to look "upstream" at what Montana NWS offices are thinking:

From Billings NWS this afternoon:

MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY GOOD IN SHOWING A SURGE OF COLD AIR
COMING FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER ALASKA IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY...A BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
HELP FORCE A STORM SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA AS THE COLD AIR SURGES
SOUTHEASTWARD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.TRENDED POPS UP SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING SOME SNOW AS IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
STRONG DYNAMICS. A FRONTOGENETICAL SIGNATURE ALSO SHOWS UP ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA IS A FAVORED AREA FOR UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH
ADDITIONAL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
LOOKED AT CLOSELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING MONDAY AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN STORE. TIMING OF ANY OF THESE FEATURES IS
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...SO OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VERY
COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPS APPROACH -20C.
STC/CHAMBERS

[Texas Snowman]

Many of you have probably already seen this, but from Joe Bastardi's blog yesterday:

"The major cold that will be centered over the northern Plains Jan. 10-20, plus the cold [in the] West the first two weeks of the month, will make this January the coldest coast to coast, rather than regional, since the 1980s."

[MGC]

I too am skeptical....many times in past winters have the models forecast the siberian express to pay a visit to dixie only to back off as the event is expected....I will have a wait and see position. Hope they are wrong again.....MGC