Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014

[TwisterFanatic]

NAM is painting a very decent snow storm for Sunday/Monday for much of Oklahoma. 6-8 inches widespread.

It's showing 4-5 for me, but the weather guys here aren't biting, yet. GFS is on total wacko mode. Showing almost no precip at all for Oklahoma OR Texas on Sunday/Monday

[TwisterFanatic]

Here is the difference. Crazy.

0z NAM - http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=TLX

0z GFS - http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overla ... TIONID=TLX


FYI, EURO is siding heavily with the NAM.

[ouamber]

I'm hearing that the low is going to drop SE across Texas, wouldn't that pull NE OK further out of good snows???

[jporterOCCC]

Everything depends on what the low is going to do but also there is a layer of dry air that the storm system is going to have to fight with. The reason the TV Mets haven't got on board with lots of snow is because of the dry air. They think the dry air will win out and bring less snow across the state.

Me personally love this stuff so more snow and ice the happier I am

[Meteorcane]

Getting a nice mix of sleet and snow here in Norman at the moment.

[TwisterFanatic]

I've got a nice coating of sleet over everything, with some snow mixed in. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for me tonight for round #2. Could drop 1-2 inches of snow.

[TwisterFanatic]

Rapid Refresh is showing a good band of 2-4 inches tonight Extending from McAlester to about Fayetteville, AR.

Edit: Even a couple isolated 4-6 inch amounts.

With chances for a significant storm diminishing in Texas, could we see it sneak up here? I've seen it happen before.

[Meteorcane]

Although I think the CPC showed a warmer than normal winter for us here in OK, it certainly appears like it will be a cool end to fall, temps have been 20 degrees or so below average the past 4 days, and I think there is a good chance we will see more winter precip events this winter (in particular there is another Arctic outbreak being hinted at in the 10 day timeframe by some of the longer range models.While, I am not a huge fan of the cold (being from Florida anything colder than 50 is cold for me), I do like frozen precip.

On another note I have only seen sleet a couple of times in my life and prior to yesterday I had never seen it at that intensity, truly shows the somewhat unique position of Oklahoma as here we feel the influences of the Rockies, the desert southwest, the Gulf of Mexico, and the northern interior. Hence making it one of the more active wx places in the country.

[TwisterFanatic]

Well, here we go again. Another strong arctic front will come in Thursday morning and afternoon and according to the NWS Snow and/or ICE accumulations are likely Thursday night and Friday.

[Ntxw]

The Euro and ensembles are putting down a healthy 3-6 inches of snow for many in Oklahoma, 12z GFS as well which has a little more.

[TwisterFanatic]

Yea, just saw the GFS. It's been flip flopping a little.

[BlueIce]

Still a ways out its hard to trust the GFS. Hopefully this round we will see more in the snow category instead of sleet and freezing rain.

[TwisterFanatic]

One thing I have noticed, wherever the heaviest snow takes place, lows could reach near 0 degrees. Brutal.

[TwisterFanatic]

Special Weather Statement from Tulsa.

...WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...

VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SAME TIME SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE
REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF WINTRY WEATHER. SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THIS WILL
LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING THAT WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT MUCH
OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION... SOME UTILITY INTERRUPTIONS COULD OCCUR
WHERE THE HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN FALLS.

VERY COLD AIR WILL COMBINE WITH NORTH WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN PARTS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS WINTRY WEATHER IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY... IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MILDER
WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO COMPLETE ANY OUTDOOR WORK AND TO
MAKE INITIAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE TURN IN THE WEATHER.

IF CONFIDENCE INCREASE THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL OCCUR... A
WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. UNTIL THEN... ALL INTERESTS IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

[Ntxw]

One thing I have noticed, wherever the heaviest snow takes place, lows could reach near 0 degrees. Brutal.

0z GFS has a low of 1F for Oklahoma City and 2F for Tulsa come Monday.

[TwisterFanatic]

A little more detailed SWS from Norman.

...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...

A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION
TYPES AND AMOUNTS AT ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION REMAIN UNCERTAIN...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
AREAWIDE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
LATE THIS WEEK. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
DURING THE DAY AND SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BEGINNING AS A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE ALL SNOW.
ALTHOUGH SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST-HALF OF OKLAHOMA...OR ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE-44. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER MODELS AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
COULD BE HAZARDOUS IMPACTS FROM THIS WINTER STORM...PRIMARILY IN
RELATION TO TRAVEL. RESIDENTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS THIS WEEK AS THIS WINTER
STORM APPROACHES AND DETAILS EMERGE.

[ouamber]

The Oz GFS is putting down a good 6-12 in path right through the I-44 corridor. I'm trying to remain calm, but I'm getting REALLY excited!!!

[TwisterFanatic]

According to the NWS, a significant ice storm could be setting up somewhere in the vicinity of Southeast, East Central OK, generally south of I-44.

.50 inch of ICE not of the question, that combined with NW gusts of 30 MPH. Power outages could be widespread.

[BlueIce]

The Texas weather thread has a lot of good info about the next system as well. Might be seeing some record cold here in Oklahoma.

[TwisterFanatic]

Yea, I've been lurking over there.